Modeling Energy and Steel Price Volatility and Experimental Test of Inter-Market Volatility Spillover: A Multivariate Study Using VECM and Familty GARCH Models

محورهای موضوعی : Financial Mathematics

Seyed Abdolhamid Bahreini ¹ , Hossein Badiei ² , Faegh Ahmadi ³ , Jahanbakhsh Asadnia ⁴

1 - Department of Accounting, Qeshm International Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hormozgan, Iran
2 - Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Accounting and Financial Management, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm International Branch, ,Hormozgan, Iran
4 - Invited lecturer Department of Accounting and Financial Management, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm International Branch, ,Hormozgan, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/03/17 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/01/23 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/02/11

کلید واژه: Energy and steel price volatility, Volatility Spillover, fluctuation, VECM and GARCH Family Models,

چکیده مقاله :

The spread of volatility between financial indices indicates the process of information transfer between markets. Despite the relationship between financial markets, the information created in one market can affect other markets as well. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility of energy and steel prices and the experimental test of inter-market volatility spillover. To do this, the monthly data of steel and energy price (oil and gas) during 2009 to 2019 were collected from valid databank using VECM and GARCH Family and VAR model and ICSS algorithm were analyzed by considering and without considering structural failure.Then, the causal relationship between them is examined through Granger causality test. The results show that there is volatility in the energy market (oil and gas) as well as the steel market during the studied time period. Results also show that the price of steel as well as its return and index are changed significantly by energy price effect. However, there is a causal link between energy prices and steel products and these results are consistent with the theoretical basics of the study and review of literature.

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