A VAR Model for the Macroeconomic Indicators Restatements Predicting : Introduction to Macroaccounting Theory
محورهای موضوعی : Financial and Economic Modelling
Vahid BekhradiNasab
1
,
Ehsan Kamali
2
,
khadijeh Ebrahimi kahrizsangi
3
1 - Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 - Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
3 - Department of Accounting, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
کلید واژه: Corporate Profit, GDP Forecast, Macroaccounting, Aggregate Accounting Information, Accounting Earning,
چکیده مقاله :
The emergence of a new theory of"macroaccounting" with a new wave of accounting research over the last decade tries to explain and use the Aggregate information of interim accounting statements in economic forecasts. Macroaccounting theory suggests that economists and macroeconomic forecasters use Aggregate accounting information at the macroeconomic level. For example, accounting earning is used to predict GDP, cost stickiness is used to predict unemployment, and the ratio of book value to market value is used to predict inflation. Earnings growth dispersion contains information about trends in labor reallocation, unemployment change, and, ultimately, aggregate output. initial macroeconomic estimates released by the Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran and Planning and Budget Organization and Statistical Center of Iran do not fully incorporate this information. Accordingly, the present study, based on macroaccounting theory, has examined the Predicting Restatements in Macroeconomic Indicators using Accounting Information. The population of this study includes all companies listed in the TSE. Due to the seasonality of the data and the fit of the models in a time series, the observations reach 40 times (2008:1to2018:4). The research method is based on time series data, VARtechnique. the The results suggest that earnings growth dispersion provides related data about final GDP growth. The results suggest that after considering the effect of other influential factors, specifically real initial GDP, earnings growth dispersion is useful in forecasting future GDP changes. The findings are important for economists and policymakers to have more accurate economic estimation and prediction by applying for accounting Information.
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