تحلیل زمینه های کالایی شدن مسکن در بازار مسکن ایران

محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهری

ابوالفضل مشکینی ¹ , محمدرضا عروجی ² , سمیه علیپور ³

1 - دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - دانشجوی دکتری، جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران، ایران
3 - پژوهشگر پسا دکتری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/09/05 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/11/27 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/11/01

کلید واژه: "تورم", "کالای سرمایه‌ای", "کالای مصرفی", "قیمت مسکن",

چکیده مقاله :

مسکن مهم ترین دارایی خانوار به شمار می رود و کالایی اساسی و بدون جانشین است که با توجه به قیمت آن، سهم قابل توجهی از درامد خانوار را به خود اختصاص می دهد و صاحبان آن به منظور عدم پذیرش ریسک ها بالاتر در سایر بازارهای مالی به نگهداری از آن مبادرت می ورزند. بنابراین مسکن کالایی مصرفی و سرمایه ای به شمار می آید که قابل حذف از سبد هزینه ی خانوار ها نیست. تبدیل‌ شدن مسکن به کالای سرمایه‌ای به ‌جای کالای مصرفی یکی از مشکلات حوزه مسکن در حال حاضر است که این سؤال را به ذهن متبادر می سازد که چرا مسکن در ایران کالای سرمایه ای شده است؟ پاسخ به این سؤال هدف اصلی است که در این نوشتار دنبال می‌گردد. برای رسیدن به پاسخ این سؤال، مطالعه‌ی اسنادی اساس قرار گرفته است و با تحلیل و توصیف مطالب موجود است درخصوص کالایی شدن مسکن کشور ایران به عنوان جامعه ی آماری پژوهش مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. از آنجایی که قیمت مسکن و عمده متغیرهای در نظر گرفته شده، درونزا می باشند، لذا در این پژوهش از الگوی خود توضیح برداری(VAR) مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. بررسی ها نشان می دهد که؛ ماتریس ضرایب همبستگی بین متغیرها مثبت می باشد اما با نرخ ارز و نرخ سود بانکی رابطه منفی دارد و بالاترین ضریب همبستگی با قیمت مسکن را تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. همچنین رابطه علی و معلولی بین متغیرها نشان می دهد که قیمت مسکن با متغیرهای سهام(S)، نرخ سودبانکی(R)، تابع اعتبارات بخشی(CRE) و تابع تولید ناخالص داخلی(GDP) رابطه علی و معلولی متقابل دارند و با متغیرهای نرخ ارز (EX)و قیمت سکه(G) رابطه علی و معلولی روشنی دیده نمی شود و همچنین با متغیرهای هزینه ساخت(C)، حجم نقدینگی(M) و نرح تورم(INF) رابطه یک سویه دارند که نشان می دهد متغیرهای مورد بررسی در قیمت مسکن و تبدیل آن به کالای سرمایه ای تاثیر گذارند و با مدیریت هر یک از این شاخص ها می توان مسکن را به کالای مصرفی تبدیل نمود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Housing is considered the most important asset of the household and it is a basic and irreplaceable commodity that, due to its price, accounts for a significant share of the household's income, and its owners, in order not to accept higher risks in other financial markets, They take care of it. Therefore, housing is considered a consumable and a capital item that cannot be removed from the budget of households. Turning housing into a capital good instead of a consumer good is one of the problems in the field of housing at the moment, which brings to mind the question, why has housing become a capital good in Iran? The answer to this question is the main goal pursued in this article. In order to answer this question, the study of documents is the basis, and by analyzing and describing the available materials, regarding the commodification of housing in Iran, as the statistical community of the research, it has been investigated. Since the housing price and most of the considered variables are endogenous, therefore, in this research, the vector self-explanatory model (VAR) has been used. Surveys show that; The matrix of correlation coefficients between the variables is positive, but it has a negative relationship with the exchange rate and the bank interest rate, and the highest correlation coefficient with the housing price is the gross domestic product. Also, the cause and effect relationship between the variables shows that housing prices have a mutual cause and effect relationship with stock variables (S), bank interest rate (R), sector credits function (CRE) and gross domestic product function (GDP) and with rate variables. Currency (EX) and coin price (G) do not have a clear cause and effect relationship, and they also have a one-way relationship with the variables of construction cost (C), liquidity volume (M) and inflation rate (INF), which shows that the investigated variables They affect the price of housing and its transformation into a capital good, and by managing each of these indicators, housing can be turned into a consumer good.

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