ارائه مدل مفهومی تاب‌آوری شهری در مقابله با زلزله (مطالعه موردی: شهر بم)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیست
پویا فرحانی
1
(دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت محیط زیست، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. )
سحر رضایان
2
(دانشیار، گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، واحد شاهرود، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شاهرود، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات))
مژگان زعیم دار
3
(استادیار، گروه محیط زیست، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
سید علی جوزی
4
(استاد تمام، گروه محیط زیست، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: زلزله, تحلیل شبکه‌ای, Stella, بم.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: شهرها سیستم‌های پیچیده‌ای هستند که در برابر تهدیدات ناشی از مخاطرات طبیعی آسیب پذیرند. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل شاخص‌های تاثیر گذار بر تاب‌آوری شهری بم و مدلسازی وضعیت شهر از منظر توان تاب‌آوری در مقابله با زلزله به انجام رسیده است. روش بررسی: در گام اول با تشکیل گروه خبرگان متشکل از 19 نفر و تکمیل دو مرحله پرسشنامه به روش دلفی، 13 معیار و 35 زیرمعیار در قالب چهار مولفه اقتصادی، اجتماعی، اکولوژیکی و کالبدی جهت انجام تحلیل تاب‌آوری انتخاب شدند. مقایسات زوجی و تعیین اوزان نهایی به کمک روش تحلیل شبکه‌ای ANP و با استفاده از نرم افزار Super Decisions به انجام رسیده است. در گام بعدی، آمارهای 15 ساله معیارهای پژوهش جهت تکمیل معادلات ریاضی برای مرحله مدلسازی از سازمان‌ها و ارگان‌های ذی ربط جمع‌آوری گردید. در گام اخر مدل تاب‌آوری شهر بم با استفاده از نرم افزارStella Architect نسخه 3.2 برای مدت زمان 30 سال از 1385 تا 1415 ترسیم شد. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد مولفه اکولوژیکی با وزن 439/0 بیشترین اهمیت را در تاب‌آوری شهر بم ایفا می‌کند. همچنین نتایج مدلسازی مشخص کرد شاخص تاب‌آوری شهر بم در مقابله با زلزله در سال 1401، رقمی برابر با 96/44 درصد می‌باشد. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: با بررسی نتایج کسب شده می‌توان بیان کرد شهر بم از منظر تاب‌آوری شهری در مقابله با زلزله از شرایط ایده‌آلی برخوردار نیست و با توجه به سابقه لرزه خیزی منطقه، در صورت وقوع حوادث مشابه این شهر توان تاب‌آوری در شرایط بحرانی را نخواهد داشت.
Background and Objective: Cities are complex systems that are vulnerable to natural hazards. This research was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the indicators affecting the urban resilience of Bam city and modeling the state of urban resilience in dealing with earthquakes. Material and Methodology: To achieve the objectives of this study, with the help of 19 experts and completing two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire, 13 criteria, and 35 sub-criteria were selected in the form of four dimensions including economical, social, ecological, and infrastructure, as the first step. Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Super Decisions software were used to perform pairwise comparisons and determine the final weights. As the next step, the 15-year statistics of the research criteria were collected to complete the equations for the urban modeling stage. And finally, the Bam urban resilience model was designed using Stella architect 3.2 software for a period of 30 years from 1385 to 1415. Findings: The results showed that the ecological dimension with a weight of 0.439 plays the most important role in the resilience of Bam city. Also, the modeling results revealed that Bam urban resilience index in 1401 is estimated at 44.96%. Discussion and Conclusion: According to the final results, it can be concluded that Bam city does not have ideal conditions in terms of urban resilience in dealing with earthquakes, and in case of similar incidents, this city will not have the ability to be resilient in critical situations.
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