آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ در خصوص تعاملات علی بین درجه باز بودن تجارت، مصرف انرژی‌های نو و توسعه محیط زیست در جهت رشد اقتصادی
محورهای موضوعی : انرژی های تجدید پذیر
سارا مهری
1
,
حسین شریفی رنانی
2
,
سعید دائی کریم زاده
3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
3 - دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
کلید واژه: درجه باز بودن تجارت, مصرف انرژی‌های نو, رشد اقتصادی, آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ, محیط زیست, پایداری توسعه.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: انرژی همواره به عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم رشد و توسعه اقتصادی محسوب می شود. اما امروزه استفاده از منابع سنتی انرژی و سوختهای فسیلی به دلایل مختلف از جمله انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای و نیز محدود و اتمام پذیر بودنشان با تردیدهایی همراه شده است هدف مقاله حاضر تعاملات علی بین درجه باز بودن تجارت، مصرف انرژی‌های نو و توسعه محیط زیست در جهت رشد اقتصادی است.
روش بررسی: برای این منظور از آزمون علیت بوت‌استرپ بر اساس داده‌های سالانه کشورهای منتخب توسعه‌یافته و کشورهای در حال‌توسعه طی دوره 2020-2002 استفاده شد.
یافته ها: براساس نتایج آزمون گرنجری بوت‌استرپ، علیت از سمت انرژی نو (EC) به رشد اقتصادی (Y) و برعکس و همچنین از سمت تجارت (TO) به رشد اقتصادی (Y) و برعکس در کشورهای منتخب توسعه‌یافته وجود دارد. هنگامي كه نرخ رشد اقتصادي به طرز محسوسي بالا مي‌رود، فشار فزاينده‌اي بر منابع وارد مي‌شود. در اين راستا، تقاضا براي تجهيزات سرمايه‌اي و پیشرفته افزايش مي‌يابد و چون امكان بهره‌برداری در هريك از منابع در این کشورها موجود است، ازاین‌رو، به همراه افزایش در رشد اقتصادی، افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های نو نیز دور از ذهن نیست. اما علیت در کشورهای منتخب درحال‌توسعه، یک‌سویه و از سمت متغیر انرژی نو به رشد اقتصادی می‌باشد و علیت از سمت رشد اقتصادی به سمت انرژی نو فقط در کشورهای چین و برزیل برقرار است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت درحال‌توسعه نظیر ایران و روسیه، دلیل وجود عدم رابطه معنی‌دار مابین تولید و مصرف انرژی نو به علت وجود منابع عظیم نفتی و گازی است که باعث استفاده بی‌رویه و اتلاف انرژی می‌شود. در کشورهای نفتی به‌خاطر وفور منابع انرژی انگیزه استفاده بهینه پایین است و از همه مهم‌تر، قیمت انرژی در این کشورها، معمولاً هم جهت باقیمت‌های جهانی تغییر نمی‌کند.
Background and Objective: Energy is always considered as one of the important factors of economic growth and development. But today, the use of traditional sources of energy and fossil fuels is associated with doubts due to various reasons, including the emission of greenhouse gases, as well as their limited and exhaustible nature. It is the direction of economic growth.
Material and Methodology: For this purpose, the bootstrap causality test was used based on the annual data of selected developed countries and developing countries during the period of 2002-2020.
Findings: Based on the results of Granger bootstrap test, there is causality from the side of new energy (EC) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa, as well as from the side of trade (TO) to economic growth (Y) and vice versa in selected developed countries. When the rate of economic growth increases significantly, increasing pressure is placed on resources. In this regard, the demand for capital and advanced equipment is increasing and since it is possible to exploit any of the resources in these countries, therefore, along with the increase in economic growth, the increase in the consumption of new energy is not far from the mind. But the causality in the selected developing countries is one-way and from the variable side of new energy to economic growth, and the causality from the side of economic growth to new energy is established only in the countries of China and Brazil.
Discussion and conclusion: In developing oil exporting countries such as Iran and Russia, the reason for the absence of a significant relationship between the production and consumption of new energy is due to the existence of huge oil and gas resources that cause excessive use and waste of energy. In oil countries, due to the abundance of energy resources, the motivation for optimal use is low, and most importantly, the price of energy in these countries usually does not change in the direction of global balances.
1. Kahia, M.; Omri, A.; Jarraya, B. Green Energy, Economic Growth and Environmental Quality Nexus in Saudi Arabia. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1264. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/su13031264
2. Adedoyin, F.; Ozturk, I.; Abubakar, I.; Kumeka, T.; Folarin, O.; Bekun, F.V. Structural breaks in CO2 emissions: Are they caused by climate change protests or other factors? J. Environ. Manag. 2020, 266, 110628.
3. Ya, W., Copeland,B.R. (2020), “Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?”, American Economic Review, 91:877–908.
4. Zou G, Chau KW. Effects of international crude oil prices on energy consumption in china. Energies 2020;13(15):3891. http: //dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13153891.
5. Wen J, Mughal N, Zhao J, Shabbir MS, Niedbała G, Jain V, et al. Does globalization matter for environmental degradation? Nexus among energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission. Energy Policy 2021;153:112230. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.enpol.2021.112230.
6. Murshed M, Saboori B, Madaleno M, Wang H, Dogan B. Exploring the nexuses between nuclear energy, renewable energy, and carbon ˘ dioxide emissions: The role of economic complexity in the g7 countries. Renew Energy 2022;190:664–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. renene.2022.03.121.
7. Akram R, Umar M, Xiaoli G, Chen F. Dynamic linkages between energy efficiency, renewable energy along with economic growth and carbon emission. Acase of mint countries an asymmetric analysis. Energy Rep 2022;8:2119–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr. 2022.01.153.
8. Solarin SA, Al-mulali U, Ozturk I. Validating the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in India and China: The role of hydroelectricity consumption. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2017;80:1578–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.07.028.
9. Bilgili F, Lorente DB, Ku¸skaya S, Ünlü F, Gençoglu P, Rosha P. The role of hydropower energy in the level of co2 emissions: An ˘ application of continuous wavelet transform. Renew Energy 2021;178:283–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.015.
10. Bronstein, M., Ozdemir, Z. (2020).“Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewed Through a Bootstrap Rolling Window”.Energy Economics, 32(6), 1398-1410.
11. Buchner, B.,Chokethaworn, K., &Chaitip, P. (2019). “Frontier of econometrics time series analysis in ICT's Stock Market of Thailand: Maximum Entropy Bootstrap Approach”. Procedia Economics and Finance, 1, 81-87.
12. Purvis, B., &Dinda, S. (2019). “Causality Between Income and Emission: a Country Group-Specific Econometric Analysis”. Ecological Economics, 40(3), 351-367.
13. Burgess, W. N., David, T (2022). “The Nexus of Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2Emissions in the BRICS Countries”. Energy Policy, 66, 359-368.
14. Chen Y, Zhao J, Lai Z, Wang Z, Xia H. Exploring the effects of economic growth, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on China’s co2 emissions: Evidence from a regional panel analysis. Renew Energy 2019;140:341–53. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.058.
15. Bekhet, H.A.; Othman, N.S. The role of renewable energy to validate dynamic interaction between CO2 emissions and GDP toward sustainable development in Malaysia. Energy Econ. 2018, 72, 47–61.
16. Dong, K.; Sun, R.; Hochman, G. Do natural gas and renewable energy consumption lead to less CO2 emission? Empirical evidence from a panel of BRICS countries. Energy 2017, 141, 1466–1478.
17. Bayar, Y.; Gavriletea, M.D. Energy efficiency, renewable energy, economic growth: Evidence from emerging market economies. Qual. Quant. 2019, 53, 2221–2234.
18. Taghvaee, V. M. and Shirazi, J. K. (2014), Analysis of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Iran (evidence from three sections of land, water and atmosphere). Indian Journal of Scientific Research, 7(1), 31-42.
19. Yeboah, A.; derim, M. (2023), “The Impact of Growth, Energy and Financial Development on the Environment in China: A Cointegration Analysis”, Energy Economics, 33:284-291.
20. 20-Topolewski, Ł. (2021). Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in European Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Energies, 14(12), 3565.
21. Chontanawat, J. (2020). Dynamic Modelling of Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, and Economic Growth in SE Asian Countries. Energies, 13(24), 6664.
22. Abdul-Malki, M.J.; Salari, M.; Abdul-Malki, S (2023), investigation of environmental sustainability indicators with an emphasis on mines. Environmental Science Studies, 8th Volume, Number 4, Winter Season 1402, Pages 7272-7264.
23. Amini, A; Amouzada Khalili, H (2021). Prioritization of the mutual relations of the contribution of renewable energy sources in sustainable development, Iran Energy Economics Research Journal, 38(10), 65-95.
24. Basri, B; Abbasi, I; Kayani, G (2018). The financial effects of expanding renewable energy on economic growth in Iran. Financial Economics, 13(46), 161-182.
25. Li, R., & Leung, G. C. (2021). The relationship between energy prices, economic growth and renewable energy consumption: Evidence from Europe. Energy Reports, 7, 1712-1719.
26. konia, L. S., merice, C.., (2006).“Carbon Dioxide Emission, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in Malaysia”.Renewable Energy, 68, 276-281.
27. Duro J. A. (2013), Weighting vectors and international inequality changes in environmental indicators: an analysis of CO2 per capita emissions and Kaya factors, Energy Economics, 39, 122-127.
28. Al-Mulali, U. and Tang, C. F., (2013), “Instigating the Validity of Pollution Haven Hypothesis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries”, Energy Policy, 60, 813-819.
29. Fishman, T., Schandl, H., Tanikawa, H. (2015), The socio-economic drivers of material stock accumulation in Japan’s prefectures, Ecological Economics, 113, 76-84.
30. Gaolu Zou, Kwong Wing Chau, 2023. Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental sustainability: Evidence from China. Energy Reports 9 (2023) 106–116.
31. Ghazouani, T., Boukhatem, J., & Sam, C. Y. (2020). Causal interactions between trade openness, renewable electricity consumption, and economic growth in Asia-Pacific countries: Fresh evidence from a bootstrap ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 133, 110094.
32. Omri A., Nguye D.K., Rault C., (2014), “Causal Interactions Between CO2 Emissions, FDI, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation Models”, Economics Modelling, 42, 382-389.
33. Omri, A. (2013), “CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in MENA Countries: Evidence From Simultaneous Equations Models”, Energy Economics, 40, 657-664.
34. Taghvaee, V. M. and Parsa, H. (2015), Economic growth and environmental pollution in Iran: Evidence from manufacturing and services sectors, Custos Agronegicio On Line, 11(1), 115-127
