Benchmark Forecasting in Data Envelopment Analysis for Decision Making Units

محورهای موضوعی : مجله بین المللی ریاضیات صنعتی

M. Shafiee ¹ , F. Hosseinzade Lotfi ² , H. Saleh ³

1 - Department of Industrial Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
2 - Department of Mathematics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Mathematics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/02/29 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/04/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/10/12

کلید واژه: Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Efficiency forecasting, ‎Benchmark.‎, Performance evaluation, Bank efficiency, System Dynamics, Simulation,

چکیده مقاله :

Although DEA is a powerful method in evaluating DMUs, it does have some limitations. One of the limitations of this method is the result of the evaluation is based on previously data and the results are not proper for forecasting the future changes. So For this purpose, we design feedback loops for forecasting inputs and outputs through system dynamics and simulation. Then we use DEA model to forecast the efficiency.

چکیده انگلیسی:

اگرچه تحلیل پوششی داده­ها یک ابراز قدرتمند برای ارزیابی عملکرد واحدهای تحت ارزیابی می­باشد ولی این تکنیک دارای محدودیت­هایی نیز می­باشد. به عنوان نمونه یکی از محدودیت­های این روش، ارزیابی عملکرد  سیستم براساس ورودی و خروجی­های قدیم است بنابراین نتایج ارزیابی به­دست آمده از مدل­های کلاسیک DEA، برای پیش بینی تغییرات کارایی واحدها در آینده و در نتیجه ارایه الگوی مناسب برای رسیدن به یک واحد کارا، کاربردی نمی­باشد . بنابراین هدف این مقاله پیشنهاد یک روش جدید به منظور پیش بینی کارایی سیستم براساس ورودی و خروجی شبیه سازی شده با استفاده از سیستم پویا و تکنیک­های شبیه سازی است. زیرا با پیش بینی کارایی واحد تحت ارزیابی، مدیران در یک سیستم می­توانند برنامه ریزی دقیق­تری برای آینده داشته باشند. برای این منظور با استفاده از یک حلقه بازخورد، ورودی­ها و خروجی­ها در واحدهای تصمیم گیرنده در آینده مورد پیش بینی قرار گرفت سپس با استفاده از مدل CCR و ورودی­ها و خروجی­های پیش­بینی، شده به پیش بینی کارایی واحد تحت ارزیابی پرداختیم.

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