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کد مقاله : JEST-1608-2956 (R1) بازدید : 174 صفحه: 169 - 182

10.22034/jest.2018.20468.2956

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

رفتار جریان ورودی به سد سیمره در مواجهه با اثرات تغییر اقلیم

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیست

محمدرضا گودرزی 1 , حامد واقعی 2 , میررحیم موسوی 3

1 - استادیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
2 - دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه پلی‌تکنیک تورین، تورین، ایتالیا.
3 - استادیار دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه آیت ا.. بروجردی ره.

تاریخ دریافت : 1395/06/08 تاریخ پذیرش : 1395/11/13 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/03/01

کلید واژه: مدل هیدرولوژیکی, سد سیمره, ریزمقیاس‌نمایی, تغییر اقلیم,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: اهمیت حفظ محیط‌زیست سبب شده‌است تا کشورهای مختلف از منابع تجدیدپذیر و پاک در تولید برق بهره ببرند. این امر توسعه‌ی نیروگاه‌های برق‌آبی در نقاط مختلف دنیا را به‌دنبال داشته‌است. در ایران هم طرح‌های برق‌آبی مختلفی وجود دارد که طرح سد و نیروگاه سیمره یکی از آن‌ها به‌شمار می‌آید. از آنجا که پدیده‌ی تغییر اقلیم می‌تواند سبب بروز تغییرات در شرایط هیدرولوژیکی مناطق مختلف و به تبع آن عملکرد طرح‌های آبی شود، این پژوهش تلاش می‌کند تا به بررسی اثرات این پدیده بر رفتار جریان ورودی به سد سیمره بپردازد. روش بررسی: شرایط اقلیمی در دوره‌ی آتی (2040 تا 2069) برای منطقه‌ی مورد مطالعه با استفاده از مدل HadCM3 تحت سناریوهای A2 و B2 و نیز مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 به روش ریزمقیاس‌نمایی آماری (مدل SDSM) پیش‌بینی شده‌است. همچنین این پژوهش از مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS جهت شبیه‌سازی جریان رودخانه استفاده می‌کند. یافته‌ها: نتایج پژوهش نشان‌دهنده‌ی افزایش دمای منطقه در دوره‌ی آتی برای سناریوهای مختلف است، به‌طوری‌که بیش‌ترین میزان افزایش دماهای بیشینه و کمینه مربوط به سناریوی RCP8.5 و به‌ترتیب در حدود 2/1 و 3/1 درجه‌ی سانتی‌گراد پیش‌بینی شده‌است. همچنین پیش‌بینی می‌شود میزان بارش متوسط سالانه‌ی منطقه کاهش یابد. ارزیابی جریان شبیه‌سازی‌شده‌ی رودخانه نیز نشان می‌دهد که میزان جریان ورودی به سد سیمره در دوره‌ی آتی حدود 2/5 تا 4/13 درصد کاهش خواهد داشت. بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این پژوهش نشان‌دهنده‌ی اهمیت و ضرورت در نظر گرفتن اثرات تغییر اقلیم در طراحی سازه‌های آبی مهم، نظیر سد و نیروگاه‌های برق‌آبی می‌باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: The importance of environment protection has caused different countries benefit from renewable and clean sources to generate electricity. This has led to the development of hydropower plants around the world. Also, there are different hydroelectric projects in Iran that the Seimareh Dam & Hydropower Plant is amongst them. Since climate change can alter the hydrologic conditions of different areas and the performance of hydraulic structures, this study aims to examine the impacts of this phenomenon on the inflow to the Seimareh Dam. Method: Climate conditions in the future period (2040 to 2069) are predicted for the study area using HadCM3 model under A2 and B2 scenarios as well as CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM model). Also, this study uses HEC-HMS hydrologic model to simulate river flow. Findings: The results of the present study show that temperature of the area increases in the future period to different scenarios, in such a way that the highest amount of increase for maximum and minimum temperature in the future period has been predicted for RCP8.5 respectively about 1.2 and 1.3 Centigrade. It is predicted that the mean annual amount of rainfall will reduce as well. Also, the assessment of simulated river flow shows that inflow to the Seimareh Dam will decrease about 5.2 to 13.4 percent in the future period. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of the present study show the importance and necessity of considering the climate change impacts in designing important hydraulic structures such as dams and hydropower plants.

منابع و مأخذ:


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_||_

  1. IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core writing team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151p.
    2.
  2. Hajarizadeh, Z., Fattahi, E., Massah Bavani, A., Naserzadeh, M.H., 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate change on flood hydrograph in future periods (case study: Bakhtiari basin). Journal of Geography (Iranian Geographical Association) 10(34): 5-24. (In Persian)
    3.
  3. Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S. Journal of Water Resources Research 43, W06427.
    4.
  4. IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core writing team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A, (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104p.
    5.
  5. Sanikhani, H., Dinpajoh, Y., Pour Yusef, S., Ghavidel, S.Z., Solati, B., 2014. The impacts of climate change on runoff in watersheds (case study: Ajichay watershed in East Azerbaijan province, Iran). Journal of Water and Soil 27(6): 1225-1234. (In Persian)
    6.
  6. Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, A.W., Palmer, R.N., Wood, E.F., Stakhiv, E.Z., 1999. Water resources implications of global warming: a U.S. regional perspective. Journal of Climatic Change 43: 537-579.
    7.
  7. Pruski, F.F., Nearing, M.A., 2002. Runoff and soil-loss responses to changes in precipitation: A computer simulation study. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 57: 7-16.
    8.
  8. Rosenberg, N.J., Brown, R.A., Izaurralde, R.C., Thomson, A.M., 2003. Integrated assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) climate change projections on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States: I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model. Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117: 73-96.
    9.
  9. Christensen, N.S., Wood, A.W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, O., Palmer, R.N., 2004. The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Journal of Climate Change 62: 337-363.
    10.
  10. Fowler, H.J., Kilsby, C.G., Stunell, J., 2007. Modeling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England. Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 1115-1126.
    11.
  11. Abbaspour, K.C., Faramarzi, M., Ghasemi, S.S., Yang, H., 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Journal of Water Resources Research 45, W10434.
    12.
  12. Barontini, S., Grossi, G., Kouwen, N., Maran, S., Scaroni,P., Ranzi, R., 2009. Impacts of climate change scenarios on runoff regimes in the Southern Alps. Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6: 3089–3141.
    13.
  13. Zahabiyoun, B., Goodarzi, M.R., Massah Bavani, A.R., Azamathulla, H.M., 2013. Assessment of climate change impact on the Gharesou river basin using SWAT hydrological model. Journal of CLEAN – Soil, Air, Water 41: 601-609.
    14.
  14. Azari, M., Moradi, H.R., Saghafian, B., Faramarzi, M., 2013. Assessment of hydrological effects of climate change in Gourganroud river basin. Journal of Water and Soil 27(3): 537-547. (In Persian)
    15.
  15. Khazanehdari, L., Koohi, M., Ghandhari, Sh., Asiaei, M., 2012. Climate change: causes, effects and solutions, 2nd ed. Papoli, Mashhad. (In Persian)
    16.
  16. Flato, G.M., Boer, G.J., 2001. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Letters 28:  195-198.
    17.
  17. Wilby, R.L., Charles, S., Zorita, E., Timbal, B., Whetton, P., Mearns, L.O., 2004. Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. Technical report, Data Distribution Center of the IPCC, 27p.
    18.
  18. IPCC 2000. IPCC special report emissions scenarios. A special report of IPCC working group III, Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 27 p.
    19.
  19. Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W.J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A.J., Wehner, M., 2013. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xi Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1029-1136.
    20.
  20. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M.L.T., Lamarque, J.F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S.A., Raper, S.C.B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G.J.M., Van Vuuren, D.P.P., 2011. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Journal of Climatic Change 109: 213–241.
    21.
  21. Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., Barrow, E.M., 2002. SDSM-Adecision support tool for the assessment of regionalclimate change impacts. Journal of Environmental Modelling& Software 17: 145–157.
    22.
  22. Chen, J., Brissette, F.P., Leconte, R., 2012. Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation. Journal of Climate Change 114: 509-526.
    23.
  23. Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., 2013. The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application. International Journal of Climatology 33: 1707-1719.
    24.
  24. Alizadeh, A., 2011. Principles of applied hydrology, 32th ed. Imam Reza University, Mashhad.(In Persian)
    25.
  25. HEC 2000. Hydrologic modeling system HEC–HMS: Technical reference manual, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, Calif, 157p.
    26.

 

 



 

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