تحلیل فضایی محدوده های ایمن در برابر زلزله با استفاده از تصمیم گیریهای چندمعیاره و منطق فازی؛ مورد مطالعه منطقه 20 شهر تهران
محورهای موضوعی :
معماری و شهرسازی
علی حسینی
1
,
سید امیر فتاحیان
2
,
جواد ملکان
3
1 - استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران * (مسوول مکاتبات).
2 - دکتری شهرسازی، دانشگاه عدالت، تهران، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
تاریخ دریافت : 1395/08/15
تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/02/20
تاریخ انتشار : 1399/01/01
کلید واژه:
محدوده‌های ایمن,
تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیار,
زلزله,
تهران,
منطق فازی,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: شهر تهران به‌واسطه قرار گرفتن چندین گسل فعال در اطراف و درون آن از ریسک بالایی در برابر خطر زلزله برخوردار است. قرارگیری منطقه 20 (شهر ری) تهران در گستره شمال ایران مرکزی این منطقه را به عنوان پرخطرترین منطقه شهر تهران از سایر مناطق شهر متمایز می نماید. از طرفی این محدوده دارای بیشترین بافت فرسوده در شهر تهران می باشد. هدف از انجام این پژوهش شناسایی محدوده های ایمن منطقه 20 شهر تهران در هنگام وقوع زلزله است.روش بررسی: در این تحقیق الگوی پژوهش کاربردی است بنابراین جزء تحقیقات هدف‌گرا می باشد. بر اساس ماهیت و روش نیز توصیفی- تحلیلی می باشد. برای ارزیابی خطر وقوع زلزله و شناسایی محدوده های ایمن از GIS و روش های تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره مانند AHP و منطق فازی استفاده شده است. معیارهای به کار رفته شده در این پژوهش بر اساس روش دلفی و از طریق تکنیک گلوله برفی و شرایط منطقه استخراج گردیده است.یافته‌ها: یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که منطقه 20 شهر تهران به لحاظ ایمنی در برابر زلزله از حد نهایی امتیاز فازی (امتیاز 1)، به امتیاز 17/. تا 58/. دست پیدا کرده است و به لحاظ ایمنی در هنگام وقوع زلزله در سطح متوسط به پایین قرار می گیرد. هر چند در این حد نهایی امتیاز فازی بعضی از نواحی و مکان ها در منطقه 20 نسبت به سایر نواحی و مکان ها ایمن تر هستند. به‌گونه‌ای که محدوده های غربی، جنوب غربی و شمال منطقه 20 به لحاظ مواجه با خطر زلزله وضعیت به نسب بهتری را دارا می باشند.بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: منطقه 20 تهران به دلیل وجود گسل های متعدد به‌شدت در خطر زلزله خیزی قرار دارد و از سوی دیگر با توجه به وجود مناطق کم‌دوام و بافت فرسوده شهری نیازمند اقدام اساسی برای کاهش خسارات ناشی از زلزله می باشد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and purpose: Due to vicinity to several active faults, Tehran is treated by earthquake occurrence. The district 20 of Tehran (Rey City), where is situated in north part of central Iran, has been found as the most dangerous district which has the most blighted areas too. Assessment of earthquake risk and recognize safe and secure regions in district 20 of Tehran is this study’s purpose. Methodology: The study is an applied research model. So in this goal oriented research which has been done by descriptive analytic method, GIS and fuzzy logic and multi-criteria decision-making methods were used. The criteria which are been used in this study have been extracted based on the Delphi method and through snowball technique and based on district’s situation. Results: According to results, the district 20, has achieved a scores of 0.17 to 0.58 out of a fuzzy total score (1 score).It shows its moderate level of safety against prop gable earthquake. In contrast with the main parts of district, there are some regions in the western, southwestern and northern parts of mentioned district where are almost safer and more secure. Discussion and conclusion: Because of various faults and urban blight areas, the district 20 of Tehran is treated seriously by earthquakes. It is really vital to take some actions to implement some essential and fundamental proceedings in order to reduce the probable damages.
منابع و مأخذ:
Yoon, D.K., (2012). Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study. Natural Hazards 63, 823–843.
Balaikie, P; Cannon, T; Davis, I. and Wisner, B. (1994). At risks, Natural hazards, People Vulnerbility and Disasters, London, Routledge.
Jamali, F., Hessami, K., & Ghorashi, M. (2011). Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in Central Iran: analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 40(4), 1015-1025.
UNDP (2004) Reducing Disasters Risk:A challeng for Development, UNDP.
Ghafory- Ashtiany, M (1999). Rescue Operation and Reconstructions in Iran, Disaster Prevention and Management, 8(1), MCB University.
Farajzadeh, M. Ahadnezhad, M. & Amini, J. (2011). The Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Housing in Earthquake against, A Case Study: 9th district of Tehran, Journal Urban - Regional Studies and Research, 3(9), 19-36 (In Persian).
Zangiabadei, A., Mohamadei, G., Safaei, H., Gaedrahmati, S. (2008). Vulnerability Indicators Assessment of Urban Housing Against the Earthquake Hazard Case Study: Isfahan Housing. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 6(12), 61-79 (In Persian).
Aeri, A. (1999). Earthquake Effects Planning in city, A Case Study: District 20 of Tehran, M.Sc. Thesis, Shahid Beheshti University, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran (In Persian).
Karimi Kordabadi, M. And Najafi, A. (2015). Earthquake hazard assessment using hybrid Fuzzy AHP model in urban security, A Case study of district 1 of Tehran metropolitan), Journal of Research and Urban Planning, 6(2) 17-34 (In Persian).
Mousavi, S. M., Abedini, M., & Esmeali Ouri, A. (2015). Evaluation Seismic hazard in Izeh urban catchment with using models, Multi-criteria: WLC and AHP. in GIS, Emergency Management, 4(1), 93-101 (In Persian).
Pourmohammadi, M., & Karami, M. (2015). Integration of Kernel model (KDE) and AHP Model in order to Evaluate the Earthquake Risk in Urban Squatter and Timeworn Textures by Geographic Information System (GIS); A Case Study of Tabriz (municipal district 1 and 5), Journal of Geography and Planning, 18(50), 55-88 (In Persian).
Lantada, N., Pajades, L. & Borbat, A. (2009). Vulnerability Index and Capacity Spectrum Based Method for Urban Seismicrisk Evaluation. A Comparision, Nat Hazards, 51, 501-524.
Mehrazan Consulting Engineers (2005). Preparation of development plan model and detailed plan for district 20, Report No. 2, Tehran Municipality (In Persian).
Drodi, M. R. & Qasemi, A. (2014). Prioritize Effective Strategies to Promote Urban Security and its Impact on Residential Satisfaction Case Study: 20th region of Tehran. Police Geography Research Journal, 2(6). 149-178 (In Persian).
Afaride, S., Salehi, E., Razaghi, M. (2012). Urban Land Use Evaluation Based on Earthquake Risks. Environmental Researches, 2(3), 77-86 (In Persian).
Hasson, F., Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2000). Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32(4), 1008-1015.
Mukherjee, N., Huge, J., Sutherland, W. J., McNeill, J., Van Opstal, M., Dahdouh‐Guebas, F., & Koedam, N. (2015). The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 6(9), 1097-1109.
Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications. Information & management, 42.
Delbecq, A. L.; Van de Ven, A.H. and Gustafson, D.H., (1975). Group Techniques for Program Planning: a Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Scott, Foresman, Michigan.
Hosseini, A., Pourahmad, A., & Pajoohan, M. (2015). Assessment of institutions in sustainable urban-management effects on sustainable development of Tehran: learning from a developing country. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 142(2), 05015009.
Keeney, S.; Hasson, F. and Mckenna, H., (2011). The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research. Wiley-Blackwell, UK.
Ghodsipour S. H., (2013). Hierarchical Analysis Process, 11th Edition, Amirkabir University of Technology Press, Tehran (In Persian).
Saaty, T. L. (1977). A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. Journal of mathematical psychology, 15(3), 234-281.
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Yoon, D.K., (2012). Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study. Natural Hazards 63, 823–843.
Balaikie, P; Cannon, T; Davis, I. and Wisner, B. (1994). At risks, Natural hazards, People Vulnerbility and Disasters, London, Routledge.
Jamali, F., Hessami, K., & Ghorashi, M. (2011). Active tectonics and strain partitioning along dextral fault system in Central Iran: analysis of geomorphological observations and geophysical data in the Kashan region. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 40(4), 1015-1025.
UNDP (2004) Reducing Disasters Risk:A challeng for Development, UNDP.
Ghafory- Ashtiany, M (1999). Rescue Operation and Reconstructions in Iran, Disaster Prevention and Management, 8(1), MCB University.
Farajzadeh, M. Ahadnezhad, M. & Amini, J. (2011). The Vulnerability Assessment of Urban Housing in Earthquake against, A Case Study: 9th district of Tehran, Journal Urban - Regional Studies and Research, 3(9), 19-36 (In Persian).
Zangiabadei, A., Mohamadei, G., Safaei, H., Gaedrahmati, S. (2008). Vulnerability Indicators Assessment of Urban Housing Against the Earthquake Hazard Case Study: Isfahan Housing. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 6(12), 61-79 (In Persian).
Aeri, A. (1999). Earthquake Effects Planning in city, A Case Study: District 20 of Tehran, M.Sc. Thesis, Shahid Beheshti University, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran (In Persian).
Karimi Kordabadi, M. And Najafi, A. (2015). Earthquake hazard assessment using hybrid Fuzzy AHP model in urban security, A Case study of district 1 of Tehran metropolitan), Journal of Research and Urban Planning, 6(2) 17-34 (In Persian).
Mousavi, S. M., Abedini, M., & Esmeali Ouri, A. (2015). Evaluation Seismic hazard in Izeh urban catchment with using models, Multi-criteria: WLC and AHP. in GIS, Emergency Management, 4(1), 93-101 (In Persian).
Pourmohammadi, M., & Karami, M. (2015). Integration of Kernel model (KDE) and AHP Model in order to Evaluate the Earthquake Risk in Urban Squatter and Timeworn Textures by Geographic Information System (GIS); A Case Study of Tabriz (municipal district 1 and 5), Journal of Geography and Planning, 18(50), 55-88 (In Persian).
Lantada, N., Pajades, L. & Borbat, A. (2009). Vulnerability Index and Capacity Spectrum Based Method for Urban Seismicrisk Evaluation. A Comparision, Nat Hazards, 51, 501-524.
Mehrazan Consulting Engineers (2005). Preparation of development plan model and detailed plan for district 20, Report No. 2, Tehran Municipality (In Persian).
Drodi, M. R. & Qasemi, A. (2014). Prioritize Effective Strategies to Promote Urban Security and its Impact on Residential Satisfaction Case Study: 20th region of Tehran. Police Geography Research Journal, 2(6). 149-178 (In Persian).
Afaride, S., Salehi, E., Razaghi, M. (2012). Urban Land Use Evaluation Based on Earthquake Risks. Environmental Researches, 2(3), 77-86 (In Persian).
Hasson, F., Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2000). Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32(4), 1008-1015.
Mukherjee, N., Huge, J., Sutherland, W. J., McNeill, J., Van Opstal, M., Dahdouh‐Guebas, F., & Koedam, N. (2015). The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 6(9), 1097-1109.
Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications. Information & management, 42.
Delbecq, A. L.; Van de Ven, A.H. and Gustafson, D.H., (1975). Group Techniques for Program Planning: a Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Scott, Foresman, Michigan.
Hosseini, A., Pourahmad, A., & Pajoohan, M. (2015). Assessment of institutions in sustainable urban-management effects on sustainable development of Tehran: learning from a developing country. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 142(2), 05015009.
Keeney, S.; Hasson, F. and Mckenna, H., (2011). The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research. Wiley-Blackwell, UK.
Ghodsipour S. H., (2013). Hierarchical Analysis Process, 11th Edition, Amirkabir University of Technology Press, Tehran (In Persian).
Saaty, T. L. (1977). A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. Journal of mathematical psychology, 15(3), 234-281.
