برآورد اثر ازدحام مخارج دفاعی بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی در کشورهای با گروه درآمدی مختلف
محورهای موضوعی : -اقتصاد بهداشت و درمان
صاحبه محمدیان منصور
1
(استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
ابوالقاسم گل خندان
2
(دانش‌آموخته دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران)
کلید واژه: روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته, مخارج بهداشت عمومی, مخارج دفاعی, درآمد سرانه, اثر ازدحام,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: افزایش سهم مخارج دفاعی از کل مخارج عمومی ممکن است با توجه به مفهوم هزینه فرصت و از طریق اثر ازدحام، اثر منفی بر سهم مخارج بهداشت عمومی از کل مخارج عمومی داشته باشد. شدت این اثرگذاری می‌تواند با توجه به سطح درآمد تغییر کند. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی این مطالعه برآورد اثر ازدحام مخارج دفاعی بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی در کشورهای با گروه درآمدی مختلف می‌باشد.روش پژوهش: مطالعه توصیفی - تحلیلی و کاربردی حاضر با استفاده از داده‌های پانل 90 کشور دنیا (شامل ایران) طی دوره زمانی 2018-2000، به برآورد اثر ازدحام مخارج دفاعی بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی با تفکیک کشورهای مورد مطالعه به سه گروه درآمدی شامل کشورهای با درآمد کم و پایین‌تر از متوسط، کشورهای با درآمد بالاتر از متوسط و کشورهای با درآمد بالا و هم‌چنین، بررسی اثر متقاطع مخارج دفاعی و درآمد سرانه بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی کل کشورهای نمونه پرداخت. داده‌های مورد استفاده نیز از پایگاه داده‌ای سازمان بهداشت جهانی، شاخص‌های توسعه جهانی متعلق به بانک جهانی و SIPRI گردآوری شدند. هم‌چنین، برآورد مدل‌ها در قالب داده‌های پانل پویا و با استفاده از تحلیل‌های مانایی و هم‌انباشتگی پانلی و روش برآورد گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) در نرم‌افزار Eviews10.0 صورت گرفت.یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اثر ازدحام مخارج دفاعی بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی بر حسب کشش و برای کشورهای با درآمد پائین و کمتر از متوسط، کشورهای با درآمد بالاتر از متوسط و کشورهای با درآمد بالا به‌ترتیب معادل، 0/654-، 0/453- و 0/316- برآورد شده است. اثر متقاطع مخارج دفاعی و درآمد سرانه بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی کل کشورهای مورد مطالعه نیز مثبت و معادل 0/112 می‌باشد.نتیجه‌گیری: اثر ازدحام (منفی) مخارج دفاعی بر مخارج بهداشت عمومی برای تمام کشورها با گروه‌های درآمدی مختلف تأیید می‌شود؛ اما با افزایش سطح درآمد سرانه، این اثر ازدحام از لحاظ جبری کاهش می‌یابد. بر این اساس اتخاذ سیاست‌های لازم در جهت تأمین امنیت بدون صرف مخارج دفاعی بالا بالاخص در کشورهای با درآمد سرانه پائین به‌منظور جلوگیری از کاهش مخارج بهداشت عمومی، ضروری است.
Introduction: An increase in the share of defense expenditures from the total public expenditures may have a negative effect on the share of public health expenditures from the total public expenditures due to the concept of opportunity cost and through the crowding-out effect. The intensity of this effect can change according to the income level. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in countries with different income groups.Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the panel data of 90 countries of the world (including Iran) during the period of 2000-2018, to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures by separating the studied countries into three income groups including low and below average income, above average income countries and high income countries, and also to examine the cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures in all sample countries. The data used were also collected from the World Health Organization database, World Development Indicators belonging to the World Bank and SIPRI. Also, the models were estimated in the form of dynamic panel data using stationery and panel cointegration analyzes and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) in Eviews10.0 software.Results: The results show that the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in terms of elasticity and for countries with low and below average income, countries with above average income and countries with high income are equivalent to -0.654, -0.453 and -0.316 respectively. The cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures of all the studied countries is also positive and equal to 0.112.Conclusion: The (negative) crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures is confirmed for all countries with different income groups; But with the increase in per capita income, this crowding-out effect decreases exponentially. Based on this, it is necessary to adopt the necessary policies to ensure security without spending high defense expenditures, especially in countries with low per capita income, in order to prevent the reduction of public health expenses.
1- Lin ES, Ali HE, Lu Y-L. Does military spending crowd out social welfare expenditures? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Defence and Peace Economy, 2015; 26(1): 33-48.
2- Golkhandan A. Effect of military expenditure on health status in developing countries. Hrjbaq, 2019; 4(1): 47-54. [Persian]
3- Zhang Y, Liu X, Xu J, Wang R. Does military spending promote social welfare? A comparative analysis of the BRICS and G7 countries. Defence and Peace Economy, 2017; 28(6): 686-702.
4- Lkegam M, Wang Z. Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics. Quality & Quantity, 2022. DOI:10.1007/s11135-022-01412-x
5- Carter J, Ondercin HL, Palmer G. Guns, butter, and growth: The consequences of military spending reconsidered. Political Research Quarterly, 2021; 74(1): 148-165.
6- Gillani S, Shafiq MN, Ahmad TI. military expenditures and health outcomes: A global perspective. iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), 2019; 1(1): 1-20.
7- Fan H, Liu W, Coyte PC. Do military expenditures crowd-out health expenditures? Evidence from around the world, 2000–2013. Defence and Peace Economy, 2018; 29(7): 766-779.
8- Kollias C, Paleologou SM. Budgetary trade-offs between defense, education and social spending in Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 2011; 18(11): 1071-1075.
9- Yildirim J, Sezgin S. Defence, education and health expenditures in Turkey 1924–96. Journal of Peace Research, 2002; 39(5): 569-580.
10- Ali HE. Military expenditures and human development: Guns and butter arguments revisited: A case study from Egypt. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2011; 17(1): 1-19.
11- Coutts A, Daoud A, Fakih A, Marrouch W, Reinsberg B.: Guns and butter? military expenditure and health spending on the eve of the Arab Spring. Def. Peace Econ, 2019; 30: 227-237.
12- Biscione A. Caruso R. Military expenditures and income inequality: evidence from a panel of transition countries (1990–2015). Def. Peace Econ, 2021; 32: 46-67.
13- Hirnissa M, Habibullah MS, Baharom A. The relationship between defense, education and health expenditures in selected Asian countries. Interl J Economy & Finance, 2015;1(2):149-55.
14- Baltagi B. Econometric analysis of panel data: John Wiley & Sons Ltd 2005.
15- Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Econometrics, 2003; 115(1): 53-74.
16- Nofersti M. Unit Roots and Cointegration in Econometric: Resa Publications 1999. [Persian]
17- Kao C. Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. J econometrics, 1999; 90(1):1-44.
18- Arellano M, Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economy study, 1991; 58(2): 277-297.
19- Green WH. Econometric analysis. 7th ed. New Jersey: Upper Saddle River: Pearson International 2012.
20- Abdolah Milani M, Mohammadi T, Tavassoli S. The Determinants of health expenditures with an emphasis on population ageing: A country-level panel data analysis. Economics Research, 2017; 17(65): 25-50. [Persian]
21- Shojaei F, Mohseni Zonouzi SJ, Mohammad Zadeh Y. The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure in Iran. Social Security Journal, 2019; 15(1): 127-139. [Persian]
22- Alizadeh M, Golkhandan A. Robust determinants of health sector costs in Iran: Bayesian model averaging approach. Journal of healthcare management, 2016; 7(2): 47-61.
_||_1- Lin ES, Ali HE, Lu Y-L. Does military spending crowd out social welfare expenditures? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Defence and Peace Economy, 2015; 26(1): 33-48.
2- Golkhandan A. Effect of military expenditure on health status in developing countries. Hrjbaq, 2019; 4(1): 47-54. [Persian]
3- Zhang Y, Liu X, Xu J, Wang R. Does military spending promote social welfare? A comparative analysis of the BRICS and G7 countries. Defence and Peace Economy, 2017; 28(6): 686-702.
4- Lkegam M, Wang Z. Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics. Quality & Quantity, 2022. DOI:10.1007/s11135-022-01412-x
5- Carter J, Ondercin HL, Palmer G. Guns, butter, and growth: The consequences of military spending reconsidered. Political Research Quarterly, 2021; 74(1): 148-165.
6- Gillani S, Shafiq MN, Ahmad TI. military expenditures and health outcomes: A global perspective. iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), 2019; 1(1): 1-20.
7- Fan H, Liu W, Coyte PC. Do military expenditures crowd-out health expenditures? Evidence from around the world, 2000–2013. Defence and Peace Economy, 2018; 29(7): 766-779.
8- Kollias C, Paleologou SM. Budgetary trade-offs between defense, education and social spending in Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 2011; 18(11): 1071-1075.
9- Yildirim J, Sezgin S. Defence, education and health expenditures in Turkey 1924–96. Journal of Peace Research, 2002; 39(5): 569-580.
10- Ali HE. Military expenditures and human development: Guns and butter arguments revisited: A case study from Egypt. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2011; 17(1): 1-19.
11- Coutts A, Daoud A, Fakih A, Marrouch W, Reinsberg B.: Guns and butter? military expenditure and health spending on the eve of the Arab Spring. Def. Peace Econ, 2019; 30: 227-237.
12- Biscione A. Caruso R. Military expenditures and income inequality: evidence from a panel of transition countries (1990–2015). Def. Peace Econ, 2021; 32: 46-67.
13- Hirnissa M, Habibullah MS, Baharom A. The relationship between defense, education and health expenditures in selected Asian countries. Interl J Economy & Finance, 2015;1(2):149-55.
14- Baltagi B. Econometric analysis of panel data: John Wiley & Sons Ltd 2005.
15- Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Econometrics, 2003; 115(1): 53-74.
16- Nofersti M. Unit Roots and Cointegration in Econometric: Resa Publications 1999. [Persian]
17- Kao C. Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. J econometrics, 1999; 90(1):1-44.
18- Arellano M, Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economy study, 1991; 58(2): 277-297.
19- Green WH. Econometric analysis. 7th ed. New Jersey: Upper Saddle River: Pearson International 2012.
20- Abdolah Milani M, Mohammadi T, Tavassoli S. The Determinants of health expenditures with an emphasis on population ageing: A country-level panel data analysis. Economics Research, 2017; 17(65): 25-50. [Persian]
21- Shojaei F, Mohseni Zonouzi SJ, Mohammad Zadeh Y. The effects of population ageing on health care expenditure in Iran. Social Security Journal, 2019; 15(1): 127-139. [Persian]
22- Alizadeh M, Golkhandan A. Robust determinants of health sector costs in Iran: Bayesian model averaging approach. Journal of healthcare management, 2016; 7(2): 47-61.
