جنگ تحمیلی 12روزه و بازاندیشی در نظام امنیتی منطقه خلیجفارس
محورهای موضوعی : سیاست پژوهی ایرانی (سپهر سیاست سابق)
1 - دانشیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه آیتالله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران
2 - پژوهشگر پست دکتری، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه آیتالله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران.
کلید واژه: جنگ, نظم امنیتی, ایران, اسرائیل, خلیج فارس, روابط خارجی, قدرت نظامی.,
چکیده مقاله :
پژوهش حاضر در چارچوب نظری «مجتمع امنیتی منطقهای»، به بررسی تأثیر جنگ تحمیلی ۱۲روزه اسرائیل علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران در خرداد ۱۴۰۴ بر بازآرایی نظم امنیتی خلیج فارس میپردازد. هدف اصلی پژوهش واکاوی این مسأله است که چگونه یک منازعه کوتاهمدت اما پرپیامد، بهمثابه یک «شوک راهبردی»، موجب تغییر در برداشتهای امنیتی و بازتعریف جایگاه بازیگران منطقهای شده است. مسأله اصلی پژوهش آن است که: جنگ تحمیلی ۱۲روزه اسرائیل علیه ایران چگونه موجب بازاندیشی در نظم امنیتی خلیج فارس و تغییر در الگوهای همکاری و تهدید میان کشورهای عربی شده است؟ بر این اساس، فرضیه پژوهش بیان میکند که این جنگ با آشکارسازی ناتوانی الگوهای امنیتی پیشین و برجستهسازی تهدید هژمونیک اسرائیل، زمینهساز گذار به نظمی خودبنیاد با محوریت تعامل عملگرایانه با ایران شده است. روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی است و با اتکاء به منابع کتابخانهای و اسناد بینالمللی، تلاش شده است تا تحولات امنیتی منطقه در پرتو نظریه مجتمع امنیتی منطقهای تحلیل گردد. این چارچوب نظری امکان فهم چندلایهای از روابط دوستی و دشمنی، امنیتسازی و نقش قدرتهای فرامنطقهای در شکلدهی به نظم منطقهای را فراهم میسازد. یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد که جنگ ۱۲روزه موجب برجسته شدن رفتار توسعهطلبانه و غیرقابل پیشبینی اسرائیل از یکسو، و اثبات توان بازدارندگی ایران از سوی دیگر شده است. این تحول، محاسبات امنیتی کشورهای عربی خلیج فارس را به شکل بنیادین تغییر داده و ایران را نه بهعنوان یک تهدید ایدئولوژیک، بلکه بهعنوان یک بازیگر توازنبخش ضروری برای مهار هژمونی اسرائیل به رسمیت شناخته است. همچنین، این جنگ موجب افزایش توجه به خوداتکایی دفاعی، تنوعسازی روابط با قدرتهای بزرگ و شکلگیری گفتمانهای جدید پیرامون همکاری درونمنطقهای شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد که نظم نوظهور امنیتی خلیج فارس نمونهای عینی از گذار از «امنیتسازی مبتنی بر دشمنسازی» به سمت «امنیتسازی مبتنی بر منافع ملی و ثبات جمعی» است. تثبیت این نظم نوین منوط به نهادینهسازی تعامل عملگرایانه و مشارکتجویانه با ایران در معماری امنیتی منطقه خواهد بود.
The present research, within the theoretical framework of the "Regional Security Complex," examines the impact of the 12-day imposed war by Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran in June 2025 on the rearrangement of the Persian Gulf security order. The main objective of the research is to analyze how a short-term but high-consequence conflict, acting as a "strategic shock," has caused a change in security perceptions and a redefinition of the position of regional actors. The central problem of the research is: How has Israel's 12-day imposed war against Iran caused a rethinking of the Persian Gulf security order and a change in the patterns of cooperation and threat among Arab countries? Accordingly, the research hypothesis states that this war, by revealing the inability of previous security models and highlighting the hegemonic threat of Israel, has paved the ground for a transition to an endogenous order centered on pragmatic interaction with Iran. The research method is descriptive-analytical, and by relying on library sources and international documents, an attempt has been made to analyze the security developments of the region in light of the Regional Security Complex theory. This theoretical framework facilitates a multi-layered understanding of amity and enmity relations, securitization, and the role of extra-regional powers in shaping the regional order. Research findings show that the 12-day war has led to the highlighting of Israel's expansionist and unpredictable behavior on one hand, and the proof of Iran's deterrence power on the other. This transformation has fundamentally changed the security calculations of the Persian Gulf Arab countries and has recognized Iran not as an ideological threat, but as a necessary balancing actor to contain Israel's hegemony. Furthermore, this war has led to increased attention to defensive self-reliance, diversification of relations with great powers, and the formation of new discourses regarding intra-regional cooperation. The results of this research indicate that the emerging security order of the Persian Gulf is a concrete example of the transition from "security-building based on enemy-making" towards "security-building based on national interests and collective stability." The consolidation of this new order will depend on the institutionalization of pragmatic and participatory interaction with Iran within the security architecture of the region.
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