Study of effective factors of urban decay in historical neighborhoods of Yazd city
محورهای موضوعی : Journal of Land Use and Sustainable Development
1 - PhD candidate, department of geography and urban planning, university of Tehran. kish enternational campus.
کلید واژه: Urban decay, historical texture, factor analysis, Yazd city.,
چکیده مقاله :
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Existing studies indicate that the processes of urban growth and decline are not a new phenomenon, because cities have always been growing in one period and declining in another throughout history. What is clear is that the deterioration of the urban fabric arises from within the fabric itself, and any newly built fabric can have the roots of deterioration and incompatibility from the very begining. The historical fabric of Yazd is not far from these changes and developments and has been affected by them. Therefore, it is essential to understand the historical fabric of the city. Therefore, the importance and necessity of solutions that will keep the historical fabric of Yazd away from the deterioration and withering of social, economic, etc. activities is becoming more and more apparent. The purpose of this research is to investigate and identify the most important factors affecting urban decline in the neighborhoods of the historical fabric of Yazd. The type of applied research and its method are descriptive. The research data includes theoretical data as well as survey data with a statistical sample consisting of 400 questionnaires distributed and completed among citizens living in the historical urban fabric neighborhoods. The data analysis is done using factor analysis and regression coefficient. the results of the research from factor analysis indicate that the factors of physical quality of neighborhoods with a specific value of 18.12 percent, social characteristics of neighborhoods with a specific value of 14.25 percent, cohesion and homogeneity of neighborhoods with a specific value of 1085 percent, housing quality with a specific value of 42.8 percent, social capital with a specific value of 14.6 percent, attention and investment with a specific value of 45.5 percent are among the most important factors affecting the process of decline and decline. |
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Existing studies indicate that the processes of urban growth and decline are not a new phenomenon, because cities have always been growing in one period and declining in another throughout history. What is clear is that the deterioration of the urban fabric arises from within the fabric itself, and any newly built fabric can have the roots of deterioration and incompatibility from the very begining. The historical fabric of Yazd is not far from these changes and developments and has been affected by them. Therefore, it is essential to understand the historical fabric of the city. Therefore, the importance and necessity of solutions that will keep the historical fabric of Yazd away from the deterioration and withering of social, economic, etc. activities is becoming more and more apparent. The purpose of this research is to investigate and identify the most important factors affecting urban decline in the neighborhoods of the historical fabric of Yazd. The type of applied research and its method are descriptive. The research data includes theoretical data as well as survey data with a statistical sample consisting of 400 questionnaires distributed and completed among citizens living in the historical urban fabric neighborhoods. The data analysis is done using factor analysis and regression coefficient. the results of the research from factor analysis indicate that the factors of physical quality of neighborhoods with a specific value of 18.12 percent, social characteristics of neighborhoods with a specific value of 14.25 percent, cohesion and homogeneity of neighborhoods with a specific value of 1085 percent, housing quality with a specific value of 42.8 percent, social capital with a specific value of 14.6 percent, attention and investment with a specific value of 45.5 percent are among the most important factors affecting the process of decline and decline. |
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Journal of Land Use and Sustainable Development Autumn & winter 2024. Vol 1. Issue 1 |
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Original Research Paper
Study of Effective Factors of Urban Decay In Historical Neighborhoods of Yazd City
Abdollah Zare Dorniane1: Phd Candidate, Department Of Geography And Urban Planning, University Of Tehran. Kish Enternational Campus.
Abstract | A R T I C L E I N F O |
Existing studies indicate that the processes of urban growth and decline are not a new phenomenon, because cities have always been growing in one period and declining in another throughout history. What is clear is that the deterioration of the urban fabric arises from within the fabric itself, and any newly built fabric can have the roots of deterioration and incompatibility from the very begining. The historical fabric of Yazd is not far from these changes and developments and has been affected by them. Therefore, it is essential to understand the historical fabric of the city. Therefore, the importance and necessity of solutions that will keep the historical fabric of Yazd away from the deterioration and withering of social, economic, etc. activities is becoming more and more apparent. The purpose of this research is to investigate and identify the most important factors affecting urban decline in the neighborhoods of the historical fabric of Yazd. The type of applied research and its method are descriptive. The research data includes theoretical data as well as survey data with a statistical sample consisting of 400 questionnaires distributed and completed among citizens living in the historical urban fabric neighborhoods. The data analysis is done using factor analysis and regression coefficient. the results of the research from factor analysis indicate that the factors of physical quality of neighborhoods with a specific value of 18.12 percent, social characteristics of neighborhoods with a specific value of 14.25 percent, cohesion and homogeneity of neighborhoods with a specific value of 1085 percent, housing quality with a specific value of 42.8 percent, social capital with a specific value of 14.6 percent, attention and investment with a specific value of 45.5 percent are among the most important factors affecting the process of decline and decline. | Received:2024/11/06 Accepted:2025/02/04 PP: 131-142
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Keywords: Urban decay, historical texture, factor analysis, Yazd city. |
Citation: Zare Darniane ,A. (2024). Urban decay, historical texture, factor analysis, Yazd city . Journal of Land Use and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 131-142. DOI: 10.82173/jlusd.2025.1201277 | |||
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[1] Corresponding author: Abdollah zare dorniane Email: AbdollahZD@gmail.com, Tel: +98991777477
Introduction
The historical fabric is an interconnected set of urban components and elements, including residential units, including dilapidated, renovated and destroyed, monuments of historical value, markets, road network facilities, architectural form and a special body that is the product of the gradual and organic growth of the city in historical periods based on pre-industrial transportation technology and has a distinct spatial structure in terms of function and appearance compared to new urban parts (Falamaki, 2001: 109). Therefore, it is not very compatible with the socio-economic conditions of the present era and the lack of proper vehicle access, narrow road network, lack of green space and educational space, and wear and tear are some of its major problems. In this process, the central areas of cities are affected more than other areas, because new areas are formed in response to new needs, and since the central parts of cities are not able to adapt to changes, they become abandoned and become extremely poor quality (Gunder, 2011: 72). Fashion Disturbance in the fabric History Cities To Our concept of the day is finally here . Century It 's been a century . Present Especially After the war World War II May (Habibi et al, 2007: 71). Urban decline is a social process that results in the failure of a city or part of a city to regenerate , accompanied by a decrease or change in population and economic restructuring, high levels of local unemployment, separated families , lack of basic infrastructure, crime, and degraded and undesirable landscapes (Farjam, 2017: 167). The most common criterion for measuring urban decline is the population decline of a city or urban neighborhoods. Accordingly, urban decline includes structural and functional concepts; decline in the structural sense refers to disorganization and inefficiency, and in the functional sense it refers to demographic changes or employment opportunities and cultural decline of urban neighborhoods (Sedaghat Rostami et al , 2011: 111 ).
The city of Yazd, due to its relative location and its natural and historical potential , and abundant culture and being presented as Second City Brick The world after Venice, Italy From Towards Organization International UNESCO, Opportunity Uniqueness It is considered for the development of tourism . It is worth noting that the city H istorical He /She/ It struck, As The first City historical iran and Twenty – second Effect historical Country in List M yrath The world Venice To Registration The city of Yazd is one of the ancient lands of Iranian tribes and has a brilliant heritage of ancient culture and civilization and various historical periods with a long history. It is three thousand years old and is considered one of the important centers of culture and civilization. In this city, more than 6,500 known historical monuments and sites It is. Windcatchers, minarets, and domes are the most distinctive visual aspects of Yazd architecture. In this architecture, windcatchers are used for Catching the wind and cool It was used to make the building space Many valuable monuments (markets, houses, baths, cisterns, mosques and tekayas) in the neighborhoods still express the greatness of a historical city. The collection of these buildings with historical and cultural value in the historical district of Yazd, which has unique values, requires a special perspective from the perspective of city management (Behzadfar & Noormohammadzadeh, 2011: 75). However, the historical district of Yazd, which is more than a few hundred years old and is the result of centuries of life of our ancestors, has also been affected by these changes and developments . Studies conducted on the historical fabric of Yazd have not followed a specific system and have been more vulnerable compared to other areas of Yazd due to the wear and tear of the fabric, the social groups living there, the lack of balanced and integrated strategic plans , the lack of services and facilities, narrow crossings, and other issues and problems. This area, on the one hand, due to the organic structure and consolidation of its urban infrastructure, and on the other hand, due to the speed of changes in other parts of the city, has not been able to adapt to new urban developments . Other economic, cultural, and social issues, and especially the management style and programs presented by the relevant institutions, have also added to its problems. As a resulttoday the historical district of Yazd city is facing numerous problems in the dimensions of management, economy, social, physical, urban facilities and equipment, and other urban services and facilities. The issue of management, restoration, and repair of the historical district of Yazd city is one of the issues and problems that the presented programs and its urban management system have failed to achieve the expected results in a coherent manner. The organizations and centers involved in this part of the city also each have a single responsibility based on their duties and programs and have implemented programs that are all parts of a whole and can only function in an efficient system. Show that a single reference can put them together and present a general plan (Kalaktari Khallilabad & Pourahmad, 2005: 80 ). Intervention in the historical fabric of cities in its current sense dates back to the late nineteenth century and the present century, especially after the Second World War (Gehl, 2011: 52).
Considering the issues and problems that have arisen in the historical context of Yazd city, such as the deterioration of the fabric, the social groups living in it, the lack of balanced and integrated strategic plans, the lack of services and facilities, narrow crosswalks, etc., the approach of the present research is to answer the following questions: 1- What is the current status of the historical context of Yazd city in terms of social, economic, physical, environmental , service and management indicators ? What are the factors affecting urban decay in the historical context of Yazd? And finally, an attempt has been made to present efficient solutions for the economic, social, and… prosperity of the historical context of Yazd.
Table 1. Stages of development of the daily urban system
Features of population change | |||||
Development stage | Category | Main areas | Rings | Daily urban system |
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Urbanization | Complete centralism Relative centralism | ++ ++ | - + | + +++ | Overall growth (Centralism) |
Suburban living | Relative decentralization Complete centralization | + - | ++ ++ | +++ + |
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Urbanization | Complete centralization Relative centralism | -- -- | + - | - --- | General deterioration (Decentralization) |
Re-urbanization | Relative centralism Complete centralization | - + | -- -- | --- - |
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:Source Falamaki, 2001: 106
According to Berg et al. (1982), an urban system passes through four sequential stages, each marked by distinct demographic, spatial, and functional dynamics (Talkhabi, 2018):
Urbanization: Rapid natural growth and rural-to-urban migration drive the central core to expand faster than its periphery. Economic activities, services, and governance concentrate downtown, while the “daily urban system” (commuting and supply networks) remains robust and continues to extend into the first suburban rings, producing high density and a tightly packed urban fabric.
Suburbanization: As incomes rise and automobile ownership spreads, growth in the outer rings outpaces that of the core—yet overall urban vitality still increases. Residents move into lower‑density peripheral neighborhoods, regional service centers emerge, and suburban infrastructure (roads, transit) expands, even though daily ties to the central city remain strong.
Sprawl (Urban Decay): Peripheral expansion accelerates beyond central growth at a moment when the “daily urban system” is in decline. Downtown cores begin to lose both residential and commercial uses, public and private investment shifts outward, and the central fabric undergoes functional and physical deterioration—hallmarks of urban decay.
Re‑urbanization: Investment and growth refocus on the core, which outgrows the periphery despite a still‑weakened overall urban system. Urban renewal policies, brownfield redevelopment, mixed‑use infill, and new capital returns downtown, increasing density and restoring central functions.
Complementing this, Knox and Pinch (2004) identify three morphological eras of the modern city (Dadashpour & Miri Lavasani, 2015):
Early Twentieth Century (Monocentric Core): Cities were organized around a dominant Central Business District (CBD) with concentric residential and commercial rings, served by streetcars and rail.
Post–World War II (Automobile‑Era Monocentricity): The private car and highway networks spurred extensive horizontal growth and peripheral suburbs, yet the single‑core structure persisted, with outlying nuclei still tied economically and socially to the old center.
Post‑1970 (Polycentric Expansion): Multiple urban centers and satellite towns emerge around the historic core, forming a networked city. Decentralized functions, distributed employment hubs, and regional subcenters mark this era of polycentric development.
Together, these two frameworks offer a powerful lens for analyzing cycles of growth, decline, and renewal in both central and peripheral urban zones.
Scholars have long debated the roots of contemporary urban decline, each explanation mirroring the researcher’s ideological stance and the specific dynamics of their case studies. Early critiques by Bourne (1981), Fielding (1982), and Perry et al. (1986) crystallized four dominant—and often conflicting—perspectives (Khakpour & Kamandari, 2016: 72): the structuralist view attributes decline to broad transformations in social and economic structures; the consumer choice approach links suburbanization to shifting preferences between urban and rural lifestyles; the Marxist interpretation sees capital flight toward more exploitable rural peripheries as the driver of inner-city decay; and the policy‑fault position regards decline as the inadvertent outcome of national and regional planning decisions. Together, these frameworks underscore how explanations for urban decline are as much products of scholarly vantage points as they are of empirical urban change.
The forces of decay and renewal of life
Various harmful forces can undermine a city’s vitality: the tendency for even the most successful urban diversity to self‑destruct; the spread of bulky, mono‑functional elements that dilute the urban fabric; demographic instability that counteracts the benefits of diversity; and the misallocation of public funds that either bloat or starve development. “Urban decay,” a relatively new phenomenon in many downtown cores, carries severe social consequences yet remains poorly understood by both the public and many urban professionals. Alongside the well‑documented process of outward physical expansion, cities now face anti‑urbanization and central‑core decline—areas near the center where buildings deteriorate and demand urgent redevelopment (Zanganeh, 2013). This social process manifests through population loss, economic restructuring, high local unemployment, family fragmentation, disinvestment, and rising crime; its most common indicator is a sustained population decline as out‑migration accelerates, signaling potential collapse if unaddressed (Asadi, 2013).
To counteract decline, coordinated economic revitalization is essential. Aligning government programs in education, social services, housing, transportation, planning, industry, human resources, and environmental management—with targeted spending in low‑income neighborhoods—can reverse decay. Creating special economic zones in physically and economically degraded districts and harnessing private‑sector investment have proven effective in stimulating renewal (Abarghouyifard et al., 2020). Historical analyses—such as Middleton’s study of Baltimore’s renewal, which underscored private‑sector engagement and public participation (Middleton, 1987), and Clark’s examination of central‑city deterioration (Clark, 1989)—offer valuable lessons. Chan and Grass (2008) identified social‑sustainability essentials in regeneration projects: comfort, resource conservation, harmonious living environments, accessibility, development form, and market spaces. Gulal (2016) demonstrated in Doha how weaving traditional cultural norms into contemporary architecture reinforces identity. In Shiraz, Taqvaei (2010) linked land‑use quality to crime patterns; in Arak, Soleimani et al. (2013) and Zanganeh et al. (2015) mapped the socio‑economic and physical drivers of central‑area decline. Pour Ahmad et al. (2016) crafted an Islamic‑Iranian renovation model for Birjand’s historic fabric, while Meshkini et al. (2016) revealed low resident satisfaction in Mashhad’s Abkouh neighborhood. Farjam (2017) showed most of Shiraz’s central blocks suffer medium to low environmental quality, and Pourmohammadi et al. (2019) found that improving livability in Zanjan’s dilapidated core boosts housing choice, with livability explaining 25 percent of the variance. Together, these studies chart a comprehensive, multi‑scale guide to diagnosing decline and crafting integrated, participatory renewal strategies.
Introduction to the study area and research method
Yazd City, the administrative center of Yazd County, spans 99.5 km² in central Yazd Province along the Isfahan–Kerman road at 31°54′N, 54°31′E. It is bordered by Mahmoudabad to the north, Gerdfaramarz and Abrandabad to the west, Dehno village and Fajr district to the east, and Rahmatabad to the south. Renowned among Iran’s historic cities, Yazd contains 682 ha of traditional urban fabric. Census figures show its historic core housed 54,278 people in 1996, falling to 42,851 in 2006, rising slightly to 44,016 in 2011, and then 43,585 in 2016—only about 10 percent of the city’s population. This core lies in Region 5, encompassing nine neighborhoods: Sheykh Dad, Dowlat Abad, Godal Mosali, Fahadan, Gonbad Sabz, Gazergah, Shesh Badgir, Zoroastrians, and Posht Bagh. With 13,920 housing units and an occupancy coefficient of 0.87, there are more dwellings than resident households (Comprehensive Conservation Plan for the Historical Fabric of Yazd, 2008; Yazd Municipality, 2019). For this study, 400 of the 43,585 household heads living in the historic core were selected by simple random sampling. Questionnaire data were analyzed in SPSS using factor analysis and regression tests to derive the results.
Fig 1: The area and neighborhoods comprising the historical fabric of Yazd city
Source: (Armanshahr Consulting Engineers, 2008: 98)
Discussion and research findings
· Socio-economic characteristics
Fig 2: Distribution of respondents by gender Source: Research findings 2019 Chart 2 Distribution of respondents by age Source: Research findings 2019
According to the findings, 70% of the respondents are male and 30% are female. In terms of age distribution among household heads, 43.5% fall within the 41 to 60-year age group, 31.25% are over 60 years old, and 25.25% are between 21 and 40 years of age. This demographic profile reflects a predominantly middle-aged male respondent group with a relatively smaller proportion of younger household heads.
Fig 3: Distribution of respondents by birthplace in Yazd city Source : Research findings, 2019 Chart 4: Distribution of respondents by education Source : Research findings , 2019
A total of 52.5 percent of the respondents were born in Yazd city, while 47.5 percent were originally from other cities or rural areas. In terms of educational attainment, 42 percent of respondents held a high school diploma or higher. Additionally, 33.25 percent had an education level below a diploma, and 24.75 percent held a bachelor’s degree or higher.
According to the findings, 33.75 percent of respondents cited access to better facilities as the main reason for migrating to Yazd city. Additionally, 29.75 percent attributed their migration to unemployment and lack of suitable job opportunities, 19.75 percent to low income, and 16.75 percent to the pursuit of higher education. The results of the factor analysis further show that the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy is 0.801, and the significance level of Bartlett’s test is 0.00, confirming that the data is suitable for factor analysis.
Table 1 Cycle factors .
Number | Agent name | Special amount | Percentage of variance | Cumulative variance percentage |
1 | Physical quality of neighborhoods | 18.12 | 27 | 27.56 |
2 | Social characteristics of neighborhoods | 14.25 | 14.40 | 41.97 |
3 | Neighborhood cohesion and homogeneity | 10.85 | 12.07 | 54.04 |
4 | Housing quality | 8.32 | 10.08 | 64.13 |
5 | Social capital | 6.14 | 9.81 | 73.94 |
6 | Attention and investment | 5.45 | 8.52 | 82.46 |
The results of this research led to the reduction of 24 variables into six main factors through factor analysis. These variables included issues such as the presence of storage and production units, noise and environmental pollution from motor traffic, conversion of residential properties into workshops and warehouses, disruptive economic activities, increased vehicle movement and decreased pedestrian safety, immigration and temporary residence patterns, migration of original residents, ethnic tensions, rise in crime and addiction, deterioration of buildings, decline in neighborhood trust and sense of belonging, lack of governmental support, and reduced private sector investment. These variables were grouped into six key factors: physical quality of neighborhoods, social characteristics of neighborhoods, neighborhood cohesion and homogeneity, housing quality, social capital, and the level of attention and investment in the area. Collectively, these factors account for 82.46% of the total variance, demonstrating a strong explanatory power for resident satisfaction in the case study neighborhoods.
The extent of the impact of factors on the withering of historical neighborhoods in Yazd city First factor: Physical quality of neighborhoods
The first factor extracted from the analysis has an eigenvalue of 18.12, accounting for 27.56% of the total variance. This makes it the most influential factor among those identified. A total of seven variables are strongly loaded onto this factor, indicating that it plays a dominant role in explaining the patterns of variation in the dataset and has the most significant impact on residents' satisfaction and neighborhood dynamics.
Table 2. Variables loaded on the first factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | Existence of storage units | 0.807 |
2 | The existence of workshops and production units | 0.545 |
3 | Noise and environmental pollution caused by motor vehicle traffic | 0.684 |
4 | Converting residential units into production workshops and warehouses | 0.689 |
5 | The presence of noisy and disruptive jobs and activities | 0.707 |
6 | Pollution from workshops and production units | 0.769 |
7 | Increase Transportation of equipment Motor vehicles and reduced pedestrian safety | 0.725 |
In the first factor, the variables of the existence of storage units , pollution from workshops and production units , and the increase in motorized vehicle traffic and the decrease in pedestrian safety in the historical neighborhoods of Yazd are am ong the variables affecting the physical quality of the neighborhoods.
Second factor: Social characteristics of neighborhoods
The second factor extracted from the analysis has an eigenvalue of 14.25, accounting for 14.4% of the total variance. Like the first factor, it also has seven variables loaded onto it, highlighting its considerable influence. Despite being second in explanatory power, this factor still represents a significant portion of the overall variation, indicating its strong role in shaping the underlying structure of the data and affecting key aspects of the neighborhoods studied.
Table 3. Variables loaded on the second factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | The arrival of immigrant individuals and families into neighborhoods | 0.808 |
2 | Temporary residence of households in neighborhoods | 0.620 |
3 | Migration of the original and long-standing residents of the neighborhood to other neighborhoods of the city | 0.666 |
4 | The existence of ethnic tensions | 0.712 |
5 | Renting buildings by poor and low-income individuals and households | 0.689 |
6 | Increased number of unknown people in the neighborhood | 0.725 |
7 | Increased crime and decreased neighborhood safety | 0.712 |
In the second factor, the variable of the entry of immigrant individuals and families into the neighborhoods, the increase in the movement of unknown people in the neighborhood , the existence of ethnic tensions , and The increase in crime and the decrease in neighborhood security in the historic urban fabric are among the variables that influence the social characteristics of the neighborhoods .
Third factor: Neighborhood cohesion and homogeneity
Table 4. Variables loaded on the third factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | The presence of individuals and households with different ethnicities, languages, and races in the neighborhood | 0.768 |
2 | Residence of single people and workers in neighborhoods | 0.602 |
3 | Increase in addicts in neighborhoods | 0.691 |
4 | Decreased familiarity and recognition of neighborhood residents from each other | 0.734 |
In the third factor, the variability of the existence of individuals and households with ethnicity, language And different races in the neighborhood and the decrease in the familiarity and recognition of the residents of the neighborhoods from each other in the neighborhoods of the historical urban fabric are among the variables that affect the cohesion and homogeneity of the neighborhoods.
Fourth factor: Housing quality
The eigenvalue of the fourth factor is 8.32,which alone accounts for %10.08 of the population variance. Two variables are loaded in this factor, which has the greatest impact among the factors.
Table 5. Variables loaded on the fourth factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | Deterioration and age of neighborhood buildings | 0.841 |
2 | The existence of dilapidated, empty, and abandoned buildings | 0.785 |
In the fourth factor , the variable of deterioration and age of neighborhood buildings and the existence of dilapidated, empty , and abandoned buildings in the neighborhoods of the historical urban fabric are among the variables that have an im pact on the housing quality factor .
Fifth factor: Social capital
The fifth factor has an eigenvalue of 6.14, accounting for 9.81% of the total variance in the dataset. Despite having only two variables loaded onto it, this factor demonstrates a high level of influence, suggesting that these variables are highly correlated and represent a strongly defined underlying dimension. The substantial impact of this factor, relative to the number of variables it includes, indicates that the concepts it captures play a crucial role in explaining the structure of the data.
Table 6. Variables loaded on the fifth factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | Reducing the sense of belonging and dependence on neighborhoods | 0.853 |
2 | Reducing trust between neighbors | 0.567 |
In the fifth factor, the variable of decreasing the sense of belonging and dependence on neighborhoods and decreasing the trust of neighbors in each other in neighborhoods of the historical urban context is among the variables that have an impact on the social capital factor.
Factor Six: Attention and Investment
The eigenvalue of the sixth factor is 5.45 , which accounts for %8.52 of the population variance. Two variables are loaded on this factor, which has the greatest impact among the factors.
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Table 7. Variables loaded on the sixth factor
Row | Variable name | Correlation rate |
1 | Lack of attention from government organizations to solving neighborhood problems | 0.814 |
2 | Reluctance of the private sector to invest in construction in neighborhoods | 0.657 |
In the sixth factor, two key variables—the low level of attention by government organizations to solving neighborhood problems and the private sector's unwillingness to invest in construction within the historical urban fabric—are significantly loaded. These variables collectively define the “attention and investment” dimension, highlighting systemic neglect and disinterest from both public and private sectors.
As shown in the chart below, all six extracted factors from the factor analysis technique significantly contribute to the urban decline of Yazd’s historical neighborhoods. These factors represent critical dimensions—such as physical quality, social characteristics, cohesion, housing quality, social capital, and investment attention—that need to be urgently addressed. For effective urban planning and future supervision, these six dimensions must be prioritized, and targeted measures should be developed to mitigate their negative effects and prevent further deterioration of Yazd's historic urban fabric.
Following the identification of the key dimensions of urban decay, stepwise regression analysis was conducted to determine the most significant factors influencing the deterioration of Yazd's historical neighborhoods. In this analysis, the dependent variable was the final index of urban decay, while the independent variables were the six factors previously extracted from factor analysis.
The results of the stepwise regression indicate that four factors—namely, social characteristics, physical quality, housing quality, and social capital—collectively explain approximately 72.3% of the variance in urban decay across the study area.
· In the first step, the social characteristics of neighborhoods emerged as the most influential factor, highlighting issues such as the influx of immigrants and the outmigration of long-term residents, which have led to a breakdown in neighborhood cohesion, trust, and a diminished sense of belonging.
· In the second step, the physical quality of the neighborhoods was found to play a major role, particularly due to the conversion of residential spaces into workshops and warehouses, and the resulting environmental and noise pollution.
· The third factor, housing quality, reflected the impacts of aging buildings, abandoned properties, and overall structural deterioration.
· Finally, social capital—encompassing interpersonal trust, recognition, and community ties—was identified as the fourth critical factor contributing to the decay.
These findings underscore the need for targeted urban policies and revitalization strategies that address both the social dynamics and physical degradation within Yazd’s historic core.
Table 8. Predictors of urban blight
Predictors | R2 | Adjusted R2 | Beta | t | Significance level |
Social characteristics of neighborhoods | 0.582 | 0.535 | -0.512 | -7.214 | 0.000 |
Physical quality of neighborhoods | 0.620 | 0.607 | -0.245 | -3.524 | 0.001 |
Housing quality | 0.687 | 0.641 | -0.196 | -3.257 | 0.012 |
Social capital | 0.714 | 0.702 | -0.112 | -2.859 | 0.005 |
Conclusion
Urban decay is a process through which part or all of a city's physical structure deteriorates over time due to the lack of repair, renovation, and proper maintenance. This leads to issues such as structural damage, functional inefficiency, insecurity, and poor environmental quality. The historical neighborhoods of Yazd city exhibit significant signs of urban decay, primarily due to the historical fabric's vulnerability and prolonged neglect. Research findings indicate that the key factors contributing to this phenomenon include the social characteristics of neighborhoods, physical quality, housing quality, and social capital. Among these, physical quality is the most influential, accounting for 27.56% of the variance in urban decay. The social characteristics follow, explaining 14.4% of the variance. Stepwise regression analysis further confirms that these four factors collectively account for approximately 72% of the total variance in urban decay in the study area.
Key issues include the outmigration of long-standing residents and their replacement by new immigrants, which has reduced social cohesion and community solidarity. Additionally, the conversion of residential properties into warehouses and industrial workshops has led to increased noise, environmental pollution, and physical degradation. These changes have reduced both residents’ motivation to improve their surroundings and the level of investment in the housing sector. Ultimately, the decline in social cohesion and neighborhood identity, along with rising urban anomalies, has triggered broad social, economic, physical, and environmental deterioration in Yazd’s historic core.
To address this issue, a coordinated, multi-sectoral approach is required. Comprehensive strategies should focus on social revitalization, improving neighborhood infrastructure, preserving architectural heritage, encouraging residential reinvestment, and strengthening local participation. Collaborative efforts among government agencies, private sector investors, NGOs, and local communities are essential to rejuvenate and protect the valuable historical neighborhoods of Yazd city.
To prevent further deterioration and promote vibrancy in the historical neighborhoods of Yazd, several targeted strategies are recommended. First, emphasis should be placed on ensuring easy access to city services within these neighborhoods to enhance livability and convenience for residents. Second, promoting a mixed-use development approach—integrating commercial, industrial, recreational, cultural, and residential functions—can foster economic activity and social interaction. The application of green construction techniques, protection of open spaces, and consideration for natural features are essential for creating a sustainable and respectful urban environment. Design interventions should aim for aesthetic harmony with the historic context, incorporating modern design principles that respect traditional character while enhancing beauty and coherence.
Encouraging private sector investment in revitalization efforts is critical for mobilizing resources and stimulating neighborhood improvement. This should be supported by the visual and functional organization of historically significant elements to reinforce cultural identity. Stronger inter-agency coordination is also essential for effective planning and problem-solving. Additionally, community empowerment through the formation of local organizations, led by trusted neighborhood figures, can enhance participation and ensure locally grounded solutions.
A diverse housing mix, adapted to the local climate and architectural traditions, should be adopted to meet varied residential needs while preserving cultural values. Lastly, the use of eco-friendly materials and adherence to principles of sustainability, simplicity, and aesthetic clarity will ensure long-term viability and improve the overall quality of life in these historically valuable urban areas.
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