مطالعه تاثیر انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و انتشار کربن بر مخارج سلامت در ایران
محمدرضا عارفیان
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران، m.arefian@modares.ac.ir
)
عباس عصاری
2
(
دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران، (نویسنده مسئول)، assari_a@modares.ac.ir
)
لطفعلی عاقلی
3
(
دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران، aghelik@modares.ac.ir
)
علی عسگری
4
(
استاد، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه یورک، تورنتو، کانادا، asgary@yorku.ca
)
کلید واژه: آلودگی زیست‌محیطی, بارتکفل, شهرنشینی, مصرف انرژی ,
چکیده مقاله :
سلامت به عنوان ارزشمندترین دارایی انسان، اغلب قابل قیمت‌گذاری نیست. در دهه‌های اخیر، افزایش مصرف سوخت‌های فسیلی و پیامدهای مرتبط با آن از جمله انتشار کربن و آلودگی زیست‌محیطی، منجر به تشدید بیماری‌ها، معضلات نظام سلامت و حتی افزایش مرگ‌ومیر در بسیاری از کشورها شده است. علاوه بر این، گسترش شهرنشینی و تغییرات جمعیتی، به‌عنوان چالش‌های نوظهور در حوزه سلامت محسوب می‌شوند. این پژوهش با استفاده از داده‌های سری‌زمانی و مدل خودرگرسیون‌برداری با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL)، تأثیر عوامل زیست‌محیطی و اجتماعی، شامل انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، انتشار کربن، رشد جمعیت شهری و بار تکفل را بر مخارج سلامت در ایران طی سال‌های 1990 تا 2019 بررسی کرده است. شاخص‌های مورد مطالعه شامل مخارج سلامت دولتی، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر به‌عنوان درصدی از کل مصرف انرژی، رشد سالانه جمعیت شهری و بار تکفل به‌عنوان درصدی از جمعیت فعال است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که افزایش انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن، رشد جمعیت شهری و بار تکفل، با افزایش مخارج سلامت همراه است. در مقابل، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر با کاهش انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن، تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر مخارج سلامت دارد. به‌عبارت‌دیگر، افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، بهبود سلامت جامعه و کاهش هزینه‌های مرتبط با آن را درپی دارد. یافته‌های پژوهش اهمیت توسعه انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در ارتقاء کیفیت محیط‌زیست و کاهش بار مالی نظام سلامت را تایید می‌کند. پیشنهاد می‌شود دولت با تنوع‌بخشی به منابع انرژی تجدیدپذیر، جایگزینی سوخت‌های فسیلی و تمرکز بر رشد سبز، زمینه بهبود محیط‌زیست و ارتقاء سلامت جامعه را فراهم کند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Health, as the most valuable asset of humanity, is often priceless. In recent decades, the increasing consumption of fossil fuels and its associated consequences, including carbon emissions and environmental pollution, have led to the exacerbation of diseases, challenges in healthcare systems, and even higher mortality rates in many countries. Moreover, urbanization and demographic changes have emerged as new challenges in the health sector. This study, using time-series data and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, examines the impact of environmental and social factors—including renewable energy, carbon emissions, urban population growth and the age dependency ratio—on health expenditures in Iran during the years 1990 to 2019. The indicators studied include government health expenditures, renewable energy consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption, annual urban population growth, and the age dependency ratio as a percentage of the active population.
The results indicate that increases in carbon dioxide emissions, urban population growth, and the age dependency ratio are associated with higher health expenditures. In contrast, renewable energy consumption, by reducing carbon dioxide emissions, has a negative and significant effect on health expenditures. In other words, increased consumption of renewable energy leads to improved public health and a reduction in associated costs.
The findings of the study underscore the importance of developing renewable energy in enhancing environmental quality and reducing the financial burden on the healthcare system. It is recommended that the government diversify renewable energy sources, replace fossil fuels, and focus on green growth to foster environmental improvement and promote public health.
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