رفتار باروری زنان ایران همگام با فرایند تحولات خانواده در سه دههی گذشته
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه زن و جامعه
بتول صیفوری
1
(دانشجوی دکتری جامعه شناسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.)
غلامرضا حسنی
2
(استادیار جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)
علی اکبر مجدی
3
(استادیار جامعه شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.)
مهدی کرمانی
4
(استادیار جامعه شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.)
کلید واژه: خانواده, نرخ باروری, خانوار, تحولات خانواده,
چکیده مقاله :
در این مقاله تحولات مربوط به باروری زنان در خانواده از سال 1360 تا 1390 با استفاده از روش تحلیل ثانویهی آمار، اسناد و مدارک جمعیتی تحلیل شده است.نرخ رشد سالانه جمعیت کشور ایران در سال 1365 حدود 3.9% بوده که در سال 1390 به 1.3 درصد کاهش‌یافته؛ در چنین وضعیتی انتظار میرفت میزان رشد تعداد خانوارها متناسب با کاهش رشد جمعیت رو به افول بگذارد؛ درحالی‌که نرخ رشد سالانهی تعداد خانوارها در سالهای 1365 تا 75 حدود 2.51 درصد است که در مقایسه با سال 1390 حدود 3.89 درصد افزایش داشته است. همچنین آمار مربوط به بعد خانوار نیز طی این سه دهه به ترتیب از 5.11 به 4.05 و 3.54 کاهش یافته است. بر اساس نظریهی گذار جمعیتی دوم نشان از ورود ارزشهای مدرنیسم و مظاهر آن (فردگرایی، صنعتی شدن و شهرنشینی) نظیر خانوادهی تک والد، تک‌فرزند، زوج زیستی و همباشی در کنار رشد پدیدهی طلاق دارد. در حال حاضر خانوارهای دارای جمعیت 7 نفر به بالا با سهم 2 درصدی از کل جمعیت در حال محو شدن هستند، نرخ رشد خانوارهای 3 تا 4 نفره که نیمی از جمعیت ایران را تشکیل میدادند نیز رو به کاهش است و در مقابل خانوارهای تک‌نفره با سهم 7 درصدی در حال افزایش میباشند. میتوان نتیجه گرفت که طی سه دههی اخیر کاهش ترجیح باروری، میل به زندگی مجردی و تشکیل خانوارهای مستقل پیش از ازدواج در کنار عامل دیگری به نام طلاق باعث کاهش بُعد خانوار و افزایش تعداد خانوارها شده که نشان‌دهنده‌ی ورود ارزشهای مدرنیسم به عرصهی خانوادهی ایرانی است.
In this article, the changes of the fertility of women in the family from 1981 to 2011 have been analyzed by using demographic documents or the secondary analysis of statistics. According to available statistics, the annual growth rate of Iran's population in 1986 was reported at 3.9%, which fell to 1.3% in 2011. In such a situation, the number of households expected to grow in line with the decline in population growth, while statistical evidence suggests that the annual growth rate of households in the 1996-86 period was only 2.51% that is up by 3.89 percent compared to 2011. During these three decades, household households also respectively dropped from 5.11 to 4.05 and 3.54. The theoretical analysis of such a situation, based on the theory of the transition of the second population, indicates the introduction of the values of modernism and its manifestations (individualism, industrialization and urbanization), such as the single parent, single child, biological couple, and the same as the growth of the divorce phenomenon. According to this theory, the findings of the present study indicate that households with a population of 7 people are now fading with a 2% share of the total population, the growth rate of 3 to 4-person households, accounting for half of Iran's population, is also decreasing and rising to 7% in single-person households. According to these findings, it can be concluded that during the last three decades, the reduction of fertility preference, the desire for single life and the formation of independent pre-marital households, along with a further factor called divorce, has reduced household size and increased the number of households. It shows the arrival of the values of modernism in the realm of Iranian homeland.
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