مدل سازی ساختاری نقش شاخص های اقتصادی بر تاب آوری کالبدی ـ زیرساختی روانآب های سطحی شهری (مطالعه موردی: منطقه 7 شهر اهواز)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری
مریم محمودی
1
(دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی‌شهری، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
رسول حیدری سورشجانی
2
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا و اکوتوریسم، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران)
کلید واژه: مخاطرات طبیعی, تاب آوری اقتصادی, سیل شهری, خطرپذیری شهری,
چکیده مقاله :
موضوع تاب‌آوری هم از لحاظ علمی و نظری و هم از لحاظ کاربردی و عملی در جهان اهمیت بسیاری یافته است. مفهوم تاب‌آوری شهری نیز شامل روش‌هایی می‌شود که در آن شهر‌ها با تغییر روبرو هستند و ظرفیت افراد، جوامع، مؤسسات، مشاغل و سیستم‌های درون یک شهر جهت رویارویی و پاسخگویی با انواع فشار‌ها، افزایش می‌یابد. امروزه نگاه جهانی به مخاطرات از تمرکز بر کاهش آسیب‌پذیری به افزایش تاب‌آوری تغییر کرده است. در نتیجه کاربرد مفهوم جوامع تاب‌آور و راه‌های ایجاد و تقویت آن‌ها کاربرد بیشتری یافته است؛ در این راستا این پژوهش کاربردی با استفاده از روش تحلیلی _توصیفی با هدف یافتن نقش شاخص‌های اقتصادی بر تاب‌آوری کالبدی _زیرساختی در برابر رواناب‌های منطقه 7 شهرداری شهر اهواز تدوین گردیده است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش را ساکنین این منطقه تشکیل می‌دهد و جهت تعیین حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 382 پرسشنامه بین افراد این منطقه توزیع شد. پایایی ابزار تحقیق به وسیله آلفای کرونباخ تأیید شد که عدد آن برابر با 852/0 می‌باشد. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج حاصل از پرسشنامه از آزمون‌های آماری و مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری در محیط نرم‌افزار‌های SPSS و Amos انجام شد؛ سطح معناداری 189/0 در معیار کالبدی و 040/0 در معیار اقتصادی نشان‌دهنده تاب‌آوری ضعیف هرکدام از این معیار‌ها بصورت جداگانه می‌باشد و همچنین نتایج این پژوهش در مدلسازی ساختاری نشان می‌دهد که شاخص‌های اقتصادی نقش بسزایی در تاب‌آوری کالبدی _زیرساختی دارد و نامطلوب بودن شاخص‌های اقتصادی، تاب‌آوری کالبدی_زیرساختی منطقه را بشدت کاهش می‌دهد و از طرفی موجب افزایش ریسک آسیب‌پذیری منطقه 7 شهرداری اهواز می‌گردد.
The issue of resilience has become very important both scientifically and theoretically, as well as in practice and practice in the world. The concept of urban resilience also includes the ways in which cities change and the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to cope with and respond to a variety of pressures. Today, the global view of risk has shifted from a focus on reducing vulnerability to increasing resilience. As a result, the application of the concept of resilient societies and the ways to create and strengthen them have become more widely used; In this regard, this applied research has been compiled using analytical-descriptive method with the aim of finding the role of economic indicators on physical-infrastructure resilience against runoff in District 7 of Ahvaz Municipality. The statistical population of this study consists of residents of this region and to determine the sample size using Cochran's formula, 382 questionnaires were distributed among the people of this region. The reliability of the research instrument was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha, which is equal to 0.852. In order to analyze the results of the questionnaire from statistical tests and structural equation modeling in SPSS and Amos software environment; Significance level of 0.189 in physical criterion and 0.040 in economic criterion indicates poor resilience of each of these criteria separately and also the results of this study in structural modeling show that economic indicators play a significant role in Has physical-infrastructure resilience and the unfavorable economic indicators, the physical resilience-infrastructure resilience of the region greatly reduces and on the other hand increases the risk of vulnerability in District 7 of Ahvaz Municipality.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In the early years of the 21st century. It happened in human life that these changes in the context of globalization have affected the economy, culture, social relations and human life and reflected these relations in the spatial formation, especially in cities, which are in fact part of the institutions. Are dynamic society, manifested. According to the United Nations, more than half of the world's population now lives in cities, which by 2030 will reach 60%. On the other hand, increasing migration to cities has posed a wide variety of challenges to urban development. At present, the issue of resilience has become very important in the world, both scientifically and theoretically, as well as in practice and practice, and has provided a new perspective on complex social, environmental and sustainable development systems. Resistance, especially the concept of urban resilience, includes the way in which cities change and the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to respond and adapt to a variety of pressures. Today, the global view of risk has shifted from focusing on reducing vulnerability to increasing resilience. As a result, the application of the concept of resilient societies and the ways to create and strengthen them have become more widely used. Different individuals and schools, according to their views and approaches, have paid attention to the issue of resilience in the field of economics and have organized their studies accordingly. It is a resilient economic system when it can absorb temporary or permanent shocks and adapt to rapidly changing conditions without losing its stability. Among the dimensions of resilience, the economic dimension is basically one of the most important; According to recent discussions in urban planning and related economics, measuring economic structures is possible by identifying the weaknesses of the economic system in order to increase economic resilience caused by human and natural disasters. Water and sewage supply and water services in general are essential needs for human well-being. However, in many countries these services are not performed and organized in a planned and controlled manner. Especially in urban areas where systems are exposed to internal or external disturbances and may cause serious problems for the health and environment of individuals as well as the economy of communities.
Methodology
This research is applied in terms of purpose and in the research literature section, library method and field studies have been used to collect information. So that the required information in the research literature section is obtained through documentary and library studies and research background, and in the next stage, the available data and information through the study of comprehensive plans and plans of the Ahvaz Municipality Improvement and Renovation Organization in order to identify The study area was collected, and field studies were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population of this study is the residents of district seven of Ahvaz municipality. Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size and in order to process information to analyze the resilience of the region in the study area, structural equation modeling methods and statistical analysis methods such as SPSS and Amos software were used. The main data collection tool of the research is a researcher-made questionnaire and the variables used in the questionnaires have been collected by studying the research background and theoretical foundations. The statistical population of the present study consists of residents, businesses and individuals who travel or live in the seven districts of Ahvaz Municipality. The statistical sample of this research was obtained through Cochran's formula which is equal to 382 questionnaires.
Results and discussion
The results of structural modeling show that the number of free parameters for the development of the NPAR model, which is 36 for the default model, indicates that the researcher in the development of the model does not easily spend degrees of freedom and this situation is acceptable. Be. Chi-square index (chi-square) is equal to 225.155 and the level of significance is 0.000, which has shown a good result. Considering that the degree of freedom in this model is far from zero and close to the degree of independent freedom, it can be considered a desirable model. The ratio of chi-square to normal, for which values of 1 to 3 are considered good, in the above model is equal to 1.933, which indicates a good situation for the model. The value of the root mean square index of the estimation error or RMSEA is equal to 0.049, which has a good and acceptable fit value for the model. The normalized fit index of Bentler Boyt with 0.789 is also considered good. Also in the table below, the value of the comparative fit index of 0.760 shows the value close to the acceptable values. The probability proximity index with a value of 0.522 is also acceptable. With all these descriptions, these indicators alone can't be a reason for the suitability of the model, but they must be analyzed and interpreted together.
Conclusion
The economic criterion was analyzed using a one-sample t-test; The results of t-test show that the significance level of this criterion is equal to 0.040, so it can be concluded that District 7 of Ahvaz Municipality is economically weak against runoff; Physical and infrastructural criteria were analyzed using Anova test in SPSS; This criterion examined the location of the buildings of the residents of the area; The results of the analysis of this criterion show that this criterion with a significance level of 0.189 does not follow the location of the buildings of the respondents and the physical resilience and infrastructure of the area is not related to the location of residents. In this criterion only height items Buildings, density and compression and satisfaction with the communication network were related to the location of the residents and these three items had different resilience according to the location of the respondents. This study generally seeks to determine the effect of economic criteria on physical-infrastructure indicators against surface runoff in District 7 of Ahvaz Municipality and concluded that economic criteria have a direct effect on physical indicators and in other words by increasing The level of economic resilience in the region, the physical resilience of the region also increases.
References
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