آینده‌نگاری روند توسعه فیزیکی شهرها با رویکرد سناریونویسی (نمونه موردی: شهرماکو)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

علی خادم نژاد ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مرند، ایران)
بختیار عزت پناه ² (استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مرند، ایران)
علی شمس الدینی ³ (استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مرودشت، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/11/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/12/20 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/11/01

کلید واژه: عوامل کلیدی, توسعه فیزیکی شهر, آینده‌نگاری, شهر ماکو,

چکیده مقاله :

شهر به عنوان دومین انقلاب بشری، کارخانه تولید ثروت لقب گرفته است. مضاف بر آن کارگاه و بستر آلودگی را نیز برخود نهاده است. پس می­توان چنین عنوان داشت که شهر می­تواند همچون شمشیر با دو لبه برنده ­باشد، لذا برای هر اقدام در این بستر لازم است جدا از تبیین وضعیت موجود­، مبادرت به شناسایی عدم قطعیت­های آینده­های محتمل ­پیش­ روی نیز شود تا بیشترین فواید حاصل آید و از کمترین خسران جلوگیری شود. بدین منظور تحقیق حاضر در ابتدا وضعیت توسعه فیزیکی شهر ماکو را با استفاده از مدل هلدرن مشخص نموده و سپس با هدف تبیین عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر روند توسعه فیزیکی با رویکرد آینده­ نگاری، سعی بر ترسیم چشم­اندازهای محتمل شهر کرده است. بدین منظور از 27 شاخص اثرگذار در روند توسعه فیزیکی شهر ماکو استفاده شده است که با توجه به ارزیابی کاشناسان در محیط میک­میک 8 سناریو به عنوان پیشران شناخته شداه­اند. سپس برای تعیین آینده­های محتمل، پیشران­ها در قالب گمانه­ها در محیط سناریو ویزارد مورد ارزیابی کارشناسان قرار گرفته­اند. نتایج تحقیق توسعه ­فیزیکی شهری ماکو بیانگر دو قالب سناریو قوی و محتمل بوده است. سناریو قوی شامل سه سناریو(سناریو اول وضعیت مطلوب، سناریو دوم و سوم بحرانی) بوده که فاقد وضعیت ایستا در میان سناریوها بوده است. درمجموع 21 سناریو محتمل برای وضعیت آینده روند توسعه فیزیکی شهر ماکو در افق سال 1404 به دست آمد که وضعیت سناریوهای محتمل بیانگر چهار سناریو مطلوب و 17 سناریو بحرانی بوده است. در این میان سناریوهای 1، 2  و 3 احتمال تحقق بیشتری داشته­­اند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

 
Abstract
The City called as the second human revolution, wealth Factory. In addition it is set up workshop and contamination bed. So we can say that the city can be like a double-edged sword. So it is necessary for any action in this context to proceed to identify the uncertainties of the possible future ahead apart from explaining the current situation, to maximize the benefits and avoid the least damage. To this end, first the present study has identified state of Maku's physical development using the Holdern model and then he tried to paint the city's possible prospects aiming to explanation identify key factors influencing the process of physical development with a foresight approach. It is used for this purpose of the 27 indicators that influence the process of physical development in Maku City that are known according to experts' assessments at MicMac 8 scenarios as Proponents. Then to determine the likely future, Propellants have been evaluated by experts in the form of assumptions in a ScenarioWizard environment. The strong scenario consists of three scenarios (Scenario 1 desirable, scenario two critical and scenario three) that lacked static status among the scenarios. Overall achieved 21 possible scenarios for future situation of the Physical developing process in Maku City on the horizon of­1404.  The situation of the possible scenarios illustrates four desirable scenarios and 17 critical scenarios. In the meantime, they were more likely to happen. Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 were more likely to occur.
 
Introduction
That disrupts the pattern of urban development, which destabilizes life on earth and urban vitality, as well as the physical inequality of the city and the environment, increasing pollution and soon disabling the urban system to perform its duties.
In Iran, cities initially enjoyed a slow physical development due to organic growth, but since the expansion of cities, the exogenous nature of oil revenues has entered the urban economy. Physical growth directed the city not on the basis of need, but on the basis of stock exchanges and land speculation, which caused socio-economic damage and degradation of environmental resources in and around cities. Maku, meanwhile, is located in northwestern Iran, which has enjoyed rapid and extensive growth in recent decades. Increasing the population of the city in recent years and incompatibility of this growth with urban infrastructure; It has had a profound impact on the physical space and texture of the city and has transformed the city's face, reflecting a kind of imbalance. Therefore, the present study aims at identifying the factors involved in the process of the physical development of Maku City, with a destructive foresight approach; recognizes the development uncertainties of Maku City and draws a clear and clear roadmap on the development prospects arising from the possible future. Provide urban planners with sustainable development along with sustainable development.
 
Materials and Methods
The purpose of this study was applied and descriptive in terms of data collection. The present study used the Holdern model based on two periods of 2006 and 2016 to investigate the current state of physical development of the city and then used 27 indicators to explain the physical development of Maku. Using the Mac software, the relationship between variables was measured and then key proportions were extracted from the Mac environment. Next, key proponents of the Wizard scenario software environment are analyzed and their compatibility evaluated and then robust and plausible scenarios are extracted.
 
Results and Discsussion
Propulsion analysis of various degrees of assumptions in the scenario software environment has revealed two strong and probable scenario scenarios. Robust scenarios include 3 scenarios in both optimal and critical situations. The first scenario had eight favorable situations, which represented the most favorable scenario for the advancement of the urban physical development of Maku.  In contrast, the second scenario with four critical situations, one static, three desirable, and the third scenario with 8 critical situations, indicated a relatively unpleasant and unpleasant situation. But the possible scenarios have 21 scenarios in two desirable (four scenarios) and critical (17 scenarios) with different probability coefficients. Whereas scenarios one, two, twenty-one and three with coefficients 78, 69 and 64, 60 have the highest likelihood, respectively, in the second-order scenarios seventeen, fourteen, ten, and four with coefficients 57, 55, 52, 52 are located.
 
Conclusions
Out of the believable scenarios, three categories of scenarios have been formulated: Golden Scenario, Static Scenario and Disaster Scenario. The Golden Scenario, or desirable organization of the physical development of Maku City, provided full coordination of the city's administrative bodies, the identification of the trustees of the urban management, the understanding of the stakeholders, the clear and rapid rules for the development of the city, restricting urban growth, improving the city's access roads, reducing The role and function of the land and urban housing stock marketers will be to orientate the urban development process vertically - condensed.

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