چکیده مقاله :
بسیاری از تحلیلگران اقتصاد بینالملل اتفاق نظر دارند که فراگیر شدن نظام ارزی شناور بعد از نظام برتون وودز، نااطمینانی قابل توجهی را در اقتصاد کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته ایجاد کرده است. این مطالعه اثر نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی را بر رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران در دوره 1386-1348 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. به این منظور، الگوی واریانس ناهمسانی شرطی اتورگرسیو تعمیم یافته (GARCH) برای شاخصسازی نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی استفاده شد. برای برآورد رابطه همجمعی و پویاییهای کوتاهمدت نیز رهیافت همجمعی خودتوضیح با وقفههای گسترده (ARDL) به کار گرفته شد. بر اساس یافتههای این پژوهش، روابط کوتاهمدت وبلندمدت قوی و معنیداری بین متغیرها در مدل رشد بخش کشاورزی ایران وجود دارد و نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی اثر منفی و معنیداری بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت داشته است. ضریب تصحیح خطا (71/0-) نیز با علامت منفی و معنیدار گویای سرعت بالای فرایند تعدیل است. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، سیاستهای ارزی، تجاری، پولی و مالی باید به صورت هماهنگ و در راستای کاهش نااطمینانی طراحی و اجرا شوند. علاوه بر این پیشنهاد میشود برای جبران ضرر ناشی از نااطمینانی نرخ ارز واقعی، استفاده از الگوهای بیمهای در دستور کار سیاستگزاران قرار گیرد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the agricultural sector growth in Iran during the period of 1969-2007. The Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) Approach is employed to measure the real exchange rate Uncertainty. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to obtain the estimates of the co-integrate relations and the short run dynamics. The results showed robust and significant short and long run relationships between variables in the Iranian agricultural sector growth model. The real exchange rate uncertainty had a significant negative effect on agricultural sector growth. The error correction term (-0.71) is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting a quick adjustment process. Based on the results, it was suggested that in order to reduce uncertainty, foreign exchange, trade, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. Furthermore, designing insurance programs to overcome this problem is recommended to compensate losses of exchange rate uncertainty. JEL Classification: F31, O11, Q10
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