چکیده انگلیسی:
Poverty is an important socio – economic feature that affects the economic activities of rural farmers; since the socio – economic characteristics are effective on farmers’ risk aversion behavior, risk assessment becomes more important with the consideration of poverty. In this study, inputs risk of Pomegranate production in the villages of Shahreza’s central region were analyzed, using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and generalized stochastic production function. Poverty status of farmers was examined, in the three groups with low, medium and high-risk aversion, by calculating the poverty index. Then the risk aversion parameter was calculated, based on input elasticity of production function, and the effect of socio - economic characteristics of farmers on it was evaluated. Also, the gap between farmers’ income and absolute poverty line was considered as their poverty category, which was intended as the dummy variable affecting the risk aversion parameter. The farmers under studying were selected through two-stage cluster sampling of Pomegranate farmers in villages of Shahreza’s central region. Results of the estimation show that inputs of cultivation areas and fertilizers have positive effects on pomegranate production risk and the amount of water; manure and labor have negative effects on it. In addition, poverty was recognized as an increasingly and family size and cultivation area were recognized as reducer factors on risk aversion parameter. Finally, it was suggested to applying the policies of providing phosphate and nitrate fertilizers on the suitable time, extending product insurance and reducing poverty to achieving the aim of risk management for producers.
منابع و مأخذ:
1. -------. 2010. Pictorial Identity card of pomegranate. Ministry of
jihad-e agriculture, http://agron.agrijahad.ir/portal/File/ShowFile.aspx?ID=e2e6c7e6-5f6b-4c43-
8008-5871c8ff3b62. (In Persian)
2. AbouNouri, E. And Maleki, N. 2008. Statistical analysis of
poverty line in Semnan Province during development plans
(1368–1383). Social Welfare. 7(28):215-237. (In Persian)
3. Akbari, N., Zahedi Keyvan Me. and Zahedi Keivan, Ma. 2008.
Risk determination of cultivated crops in Hamadan Province with
use mathematical programming with attention to risk and
uncertainty conditions. Journal of Agricultural Economics and
Development. 16(64):63-82. (In Persian)
4. Anderson, J.R. 1973. Sparse data, climatic variability and yield
uncertainty in response analysis. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 53(1): 77-82.
5. Aye, G.C. and Oji, K.O. 2007. Effect of Poverty on Risk
Attitudes of Farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. 12th Annual
Conference of Econometric Modeling for Africa, 4-6 July, Cape
Town, South Africa,
http://www.africametrics.org/documents/conference07/Day
1/Session 2/Aye effect of poverty.pdf
6. Bardhan, D., Dabas, Y. P.S., Tewari, S.K. and Kumar, A. 2006.
An assessment of risk attitude of dairy farmers in Uttaranchal
(India). Agricultural Economists Conference, August 12-18,
Queensland, Australia.
7. Bureau of Statistics and Information Technology Ministry of
Jihad-e Agriculture. 2010. The results of a sample survey plans of
garden’s products in year 2008. Tehran: ministry of agriculture,
deputy for planning and economic affairs. Bureau of Statistics
and Information Technology, Iran, http://dpe.agrijahad.ir/portal/File/ShowFile.aspx?ID=e9f5eb11-a6b6-43af-8fecaf236ae07c28.
(In Persian)
8. Central Bank of Iran. 2007. Research- calculating poverty line in
Iran during 2004-2006 years. Statistical research office of central
bank of Islamic republic of Iran,
http://www.cbi.ir/page/5351.aspx. (In Persian)
9. Dejanvery, A. 1972. Optimal levels of fertilization under risk: the
potential for corn and wheat fertilization under alternative price
policies in Argentina. American Journal of Agricultural
Economics. 54: 1-10.
10. Ehsan, A.A.R., Tehrani, R. and Islami Bidgoli, Gh.R. 2008. The
investigation of risk aversion coefficient and the variance
production in risk management case study: tomato producers in
Dezfool. Agricultural economics and development. 16(61): 17-35.
(In Persian)
11. Ferdowsi, R. and Kopahi, M. 2005. measuring attitude of wheat
farmers toward risk, a case study Golestan Province. Agricultural
economics and development. (52): 27-43. (In Persian)
12. Foster, J., Greer J. and Thorbecke, E. 1984. A class of
decomposable poverty measures. Journal of Econometrica. 52(3):
761 – 766.
13. Fufa, B. and Hassan, R.M. 2005. Stochastic technology and crop
production risk: the case of small-scale farmers in East Hararghe
zone of Omiya regional state in Ethiopia. International
Conference on Shared Growth in Africa. 21-22 July. Nairobi,
Kenya. Africa.
14. Ghorbani, M. and Jafari, F. 2009. Can production inputs play the
role of insurance in wheat production process?. 68:1-15. (In
Persian)
15. Guajarati, D. 2006. Basic Econometrics, Volume 2 (Translator:
Abrishami, H.). Tehran: Tehran university press, Iran. (In
Persian)
16. Hamraz, S.S., Ghorbani, M. and Hamraz, B.S. 2011. Survey
effect of biological control on production risk of Pomegranate
production in khorasan Razavi Province. National Pomegranate
Symposium, Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, 5-6 October, Iran.
(In Persian)
17. Hasanshahi, M. 2008. The effect of risk on Cropping Pattern and
Farmers Income: case study agriculture sector of Arsanjan.
Pajouhesh-Va-Sazandegi in Agronomy and Horticulture. 77: 2-9.
(In Persian)
18. Hazzel, B.R. and Norton, R.D. 1986. Mathematical programming
for economic analysis in agriculture, Macmillan’s, New York,
US.
19. Just, R.E. and Pope, R.D. 1978. Stochastic specification of
production function and economic implication. Journal of
Econometrics. 7: 67-86.
20. Just, R.E. and Pope, R.D. 1979. Production Function Estimation
and Related Risk Considerations. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 61(2): 276–284.
21. Karbasi, A., Daneshvar, M., Karimkoshte, M.H. and Toupkanloo,
Z.N. 2005. The impact of different factors on the production risk
of irrigated and rainfed cumin in Khorasan Province. Agricultural
Sciences and Technology. 19(2):57-64. (In Persian)
22. Karimi, F., Pirasteh, H. and zahedi keivan, M. 2009. Efficiency
determination of wheat farming with regard to risk and time
factors with use interval DEA and window DEA. Agricultural
economics and development. 16(64): 139-159. (In Persian)
23. Kim, M. K. and Pang, A. 2009. Climate change impact on rice
yield and production risk. Journal of Rural Development. 32: 17-
29.
24. Kopahi, M., Sadat Barikani H., Kavoosi Kelashomi, M. and
Sasoli, M. 2009. Effects of Inputs Utilization on Rice Production
Risk in Guilan Province. Journal of Crop Production and
Processing. 13(48):357-364. (In Persian)
25. Koundouri, P. and Nauges, C. 2005. On production function
estimation with selectivity and risk considerations. Journal of
Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural
Economics Association. 30(3): 597-608.
26. Moghadasi, R. and Yazdani, S. 2000 Risk in Production function
and analysis inputs’ effect. Articles Collections of the First
Biennial Conference of Agricultural Economics, Zabol, Iran. 46-
61. (In Persian)
27. Mosavi, N., Mohammadi, H. and Taheri, F. 2008. Effects of
inputs on production risk of pistachio in Fars Province. Journal of
Agricultural Extension and Education Research. 3:61-68. (In
Persian)
28. Moscardi, E. and Dejanvery, A. 1977. Attitudes toward risk
among peasants: an econometric approach. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics. 59(4): 710-716.
29. Pope, R.D. and Kramer, R. 1979. Production uncertainty and
factor demands for competitive firm. Southern Economic Journal.
46: 49-501.
30. Roumasset, J.A. 1976. Rice and risk: decision making among low
income farmers. North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam.
Holland.
31. Saha, A., Havenner, A. and Talpaz H. 1997. Stochastic
production function estimation: small sample properties of ML
versus FGLS. Applied Economics. 29(4): 459–469.
32. Shirvanian, A. and Torkamani, J. 2010 Poverty and risk attitudes
in rural areas of Fars Province. Journal of Agricultural
Economics. 4(2):83-105. (In Persian)
33. Tahamipour, M. 2008. Investigating effective factors in pistachio
production risk in Zarand. Agricultural economics and
development. 16(63): 1-19. (In Persian).
