ارزیابی اثرات هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی توسعه تکنولوژی های نوین آبیاری تحت شرایط خشکسالی: تلفیق مدل های WEAP و PMP
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیعلی قاسمی 1 , سید نعمت اله موسوی 2 , بهاالدین نجفی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت
2 - دانشیارگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران
3 - استاد گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران
کلید واژه: مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی, خشکسالی, فناوریهای نوین آبیاری, کارایی مصرف آب,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه و هدف: سیاست‌گذاران برای انتخاب و اجرای سیاست‌های مدیریت منابع آب در جهت سازگاری با خشکسالی با شرایط پیچیده و چندبعدی مواجه هستند. از یک طرف، به دلیل ماهیت چندبعدی و چند مقیاسی مدیریت منابع آب و خشکسالی، به ادغام ابزارهایی برای تحلیل اثرات و سازگاری نیاز است. از طرف دیگر، توسعه فناوریهای نوین آبیاری در سطح مزارع یکی از راهکارها و سیاست-هایی است که همواره مورد بحث متخصصین و سیاست‌گذاران در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب می‌باشد. بنابراین، در مطالعه حاضر به منظور ارزیابی اثرات بالقوه خشکسالی و توسعه فناوریهای نوین آبیاری به‌عنوان راهکاری جهت سازگاری با خشکسالی در حوضه آبریز سدکوثر از یک الگوی هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی استفاده شده است.
مواد و روشها: در این چارچوب، یک الگوی هیدرولوژیکی برنامه‌ریزی و ارزیابی آب (WEAP) و الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) با قابلیت ارزیابی سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اقتصادی، زراعی و هیدرولوژیکی به شیوه‌ای فضایی و صریح با لحاظ تمامی ابعاد و مقیاس‌های مربوط به خشکسالی، تلفیق شد. داده‌ها و اطلاعات لازم نیز برگرفته از مطالعات اسنادی در سطح حوضه می‌باشد.
یافته ها: نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که با افزایش کارایی مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی، کاهش مصرف آب بدون کاهش کارایی اقتصادی و کیفیت زندگی اتفاق می‌افتد. به گونه‌ای که با بهبود کارایی 30 درصدی مصرف آب تحت شرایط خشکسالی، بهره‌وری اقتصادی مصرف آب در کل حوضه نسبت به شرایط پایه حدود 7 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: به عبارتی، توسعه فناوریهای نوین آبیاری منجر به ذخیره آب کشاورزان و ترغیب آن‌ها به کشت محصولات پربازده و با مصرف آب بالا می‌شود که این امر سبب بهبود وضعیت اقتصادی کشاورزان خواهد شد. بنابراین، می‌توان با اعمال سیاست‌هایی در جهت بهبود کارایی مصرف آب بدون اعمال سیاست‌های تنبیهی در زمینه جلوگیری از کاشت محصولات با مصرف آب بالا مانند برنج، کاهش مصرف آب بدون آسیب اقتصادی به کشاورزان را تحقق بخشید.
Introduction: Policy makers are faced with complex and multidimensional conditions to choose and implement water resources management policies in order to adapt to drought. On the one hand, due to the multidimensional and multiscale nature of water resources and drought management, there is a need to integrate tools for impact analysis and adaptation. On the other hand, the development of new irrigation technologies at farm level is one of the solutions and policies that are always discussed by experts and policy makers in the field of water resources management. Therefore, in the present study, a hydrological-economic model was used in order to evaluate the potential effects of drought and to develop new irrigation technologies as a solution to adapt to drought in the Kowsar dam watershed.
Materials and Methods: In this framework, a hydrological water planning and evaluation model (WEAP) and a positive mathematical programming model (PMP) were combined with the ability to evaluate socio-economic, agricultural and hydrological systems in a spatial and explicit manner. The necessary data and information are also taken from documentary studies at the basin level.
Findings: The results of the study showed that by increasing the efficiency of water consumption in the agricultural sector, the reduction of water consumption occurs without reducing the economic efficiency and quality of life. In such a way that by improving the efficiency of water consumption by 30% under drought conditions, the economic efficiency of water consumption in the entire basin will increase by about 7% compared to the basic conditions.
Conclusion: In other words, the development of new irrigation technologies leads to the saving of farmers' water and encouraging them to cultivate high-yield crops with high water consumption, which will improve the farmers' economic situation. Therefore, by implementing policies to improve the efficiency of water consumption without applying punitive policies in the field of preventing the planting of crops with high water consumption such as rice, it is possible to reduce water consumption without economic damage to farmers.regarding the economic growth of neighbouring countries.
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