بررسی اثر توسعه تکنولوژی بر رشد اقتصادی و کنترل انتشار آلودگی در بخش کشاورزی (با اجرای قانون هدفمندی یارانه انرژی)
محورهای موضوعی :
فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
فاطمه طایی سمیرمی
1
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس- دانشکده کشاورزی)
صادق خلیلیان
2
(دانشیار- دانشگاه تربیت مدرس- دانشکده کشاورزی)
تاریخ دریافت : 1400/02/17
تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/05/15
تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01
کلید واژه:
بخش کشاورزی,
یارانه انرژی,
منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس,
مدل خودرگرسیونی برداری توضیحی (ARDL),
چکیده مقاله :
استفاده از فناوری‌های جدید سبب کاهش انتشار آلودگی می‌شود؛ اما، به دلیل وجود اثر بازگشتی نیاز به بررسی بیشتر دارد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر توسعه فناوری (اثر کارایی انرژی و اثر جانشینی) بر میزان آلودگی با بررسی اثرات القایی رشد اقتصادی و آزمون منحنی کوزنتس زیست‌محیطی است. در این مطالعه از اطلاعات سری‌زمانی سالانه 1360 الی 1396 و روش خودرگرسیونی برداری توضیحی استفاده شده است. یافته‌‌های تحقیق دلالت بر این دارد که با افزایش قیمت انرژی ناشی از اجرای قانون هدفمندی یارانه در ایران، فرضیه زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس مورد تأیید قرار نمی‌گیرد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی سناریوی رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی، نشان داد که هر یک درصد افزایش این متغیر به طور متوسط باعث افزایش 31/0 درصدی اثر کارایی انرژی بر کاهش آلودگی و افزایش 92/18 درصدی اثر جانشینی انرژی بر افزایش آلودگی در دوره شبیه‌سازی گردیده است
چکیده انگلیسی:
The use of new technologies reduces the spread of pollution; However, due to the rebound effect (RE), it needs further investigation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of technology advance (energy efficiency and change of energy type) on pollution by calculating the effect of economic growth and testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) using the annual time series information of Iran's agricultural sector from 1981 to 2017 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The research findings indicate that with the increase in energy prices due to the implementation of the targeted subsidy law in Iran, the Kuznets environmental hypothesis is not confirmed. The simulation results of the economic growth scenario of the agricultural sector showed that each percentage increase of this variable increased the effect of energy efficiency on pollution reduction by 0.31% on average and the effect of energy substitution on the increase of pollution increased by 18.92% during the simulation period.
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