تاب آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

رضا شاکری بستان آباد ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران.)
محمد رضا مهدیار اسماعیلی ² (استادیار، پژوهشکده مدیریت و برنامه‎ریزی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع).)
محسن صالحی کمرودی ³ (دکتری، اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/01/14 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/11/01

کلید واژه: شاخص ترکیبی, بخش کشاورزی ایران, تاب آوری اقتصادی, روش تحلیل چندمعیاره, شاخص اسپیرمن-شانون,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: تاب‌آوری اقتصادی از مولفه‌های مهم اقتصاد مقاومتی است که در شرایط تحریم اقتصادی اهمیت مضاعفی پیدا می‌کند. با توجه به اهمیت بخش کشاورزی در تأمین امنیت غذایی، تاب‌آوری اقتصادی این بخش نقش مهمی را در رسیدن به اهداف اقتصاد مقاوتی دارد. از این رو هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی ایران طی سال­های 1394-1379است. مواد و روش­ها: بدین منظور از شاخص­های تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی، تمرکز صادرات، درجه باز بودن اقتصاد، نسبت ستانده بخش کشاورزی به مصرف واسطه، بی­ثباتی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، ضریب خوداتکایی، شاخص توسعه انسانی و شاخص­های حکمرانی خوب استفاده شد. برای ساخت شاخص ترکیبی تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی از روش­های تاپسیس، تاکسونومی معمولی، تاکسونومی وزنی و میانگین وزنی استفاده شد. یافته­ها: نتایج آن­ها با ضریب تغییرات، ضریب همبستگی و شاخص اسپیرمن-شانون مقایسه گردید. بر اساس نتایج، تاب­آوری اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در دوره مورد مطالعه کاهش یافته است و شاخص بی­ثباتی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، تمرکز صادرات، کنترل فساد و تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی بیشترین اهمیت را در تعیین تاب­آوری اقتصادی این بخش دارد. بحث و نتیجه­گیری: از این­رو روش‌های مدیریت ریسک مانند متنوع‌سازی درآمد بخش کشاورزی، بیمه کشاورزی، تنوع مقاصد صادراتی، گسترش بازارهای هدف، تنوع­بخشی در صادرات کالاها، ثبات سیاست‌ها و ثبات اقتصاد کلان باید با تاکید بیشتری در دستور کار سیاست­گذاران این بخش قرار بگیرد. طبقه­بندی JEL: C43,O13,Q18.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Economic resilience is one of the important components of the resistance economy. Especially in terms of economic sanctions and given the importance of the agricultural sector in food security, the economic resilience of this sector becomes more important. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic resilience of Iran's agricultural sector during the years 2000-2015.
Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the indicators of the concentration of export markets, export concentration, openness of the economy, output ratio of agricultural sector to intermediate consumption, income instability of agricultural sector, self-sufficiency coefficient, human development index and good governance indicators were used. To generate the combined index of economic viability of agricultural sector, methods of TOPSIS, taxonomy, weight taxonomy and weighted average were used and their results were compared by using coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and Spearman-Shannon index.
Findings: Based on the results, the economic Resilience of the agricultural sector has decreased during the study period and the index of instability of agricultural income, export concentration, corruption control and market efficiency are most important in determining the economic resilience of this sector.
Conclusion: Therefore, risk management methods such as agricultural income diversification, agricultural insurance, the diversification of export targets, the expansion of target markets, diversification into commodity exports, stability of policies and macroeconomic stability should be further emphasized on the agenda of policy makers in this sector.

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