ارزیابی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

قاسم لیانی سنگ نیشتی ¹ (دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز)
نوید کارگر ده بیدی ² (دانشجو)
فاطمه فتحی ³ (گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز)

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/05/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/05/19 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/11/01

کلید واژه: ایران, ARDL, ساختار جمعیتی, انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن,

چکیده مقاله :

ساختار جمعیتی در ایران همچون سایر مناطق دنیا، در حال تغییر است. این تغییرات با کاهش سهم کودکان و افزایش سهم افراد مسن از جمعیت کل همراه است به گونه‌ای که بر اساس پیش‌بینی‌های سازمان ملل از سال 2015 تا 2030 جمعیت افراد مسن در ایران دو برابر خواهد شد. از این رو هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار آلودگی ناشی از گاز دی اکسید کربن در ایران در طی دوره 1350 الی 1394 می‌باشد. در این پژوهش با توجه به نتایج ایستایی متغیرها از روش هم‌جمعی در قالب رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که به ترتیب دو بازه جمعیتی (64-15) و (14-0) سال تاثیر بالایی بر سرانه انتشار گاز CO2 دارند، درحالی که جمعیت سالخوردگی (65 سال به بالا) اثرگذاری کمتری در انتشار گاز CO2 دارد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The demographic structure, as in other parts of the world, in Iran is changing. These changes are associated with a reduction in the share of children and an increase in the share of the elderly of the total population. The United Nations has predicted that in the years 2015-2030, the population of the elderly will double in Iran. Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic structure on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period from 1350 to 1394. In this study, based on the results of variables stationary, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was applied. The results of the research indicate that the two demographic (15-64 years) and (0-14 years) periods have a significant impact on CO2 per capita emissions, while the aging population (65 years and older) has a lower effect on CO2 emissions.

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