بررسی روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و شرکای عمده تجاری
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیمریم قره جعفری 1 , کیومرث شهبازی 2 , حسن خداویسی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه.
2 - استاد گروه اقتصاد ومدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.
3 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.
کلید واژه: روند تصادفی مشترک, روش گونزالو و گرنجر, رشد بخش کشاورزی, هم‌جمعی,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از هدف‌های اصلی هر کشور، تأمین مواد غذایی موردنیاز جامعه است که از طریق رشد در بخش کشاورزی قابل دستیابی است. در این راستا، مطالعه‌ی حاضر تلاش کرده است؛ روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای طرف عمده‌ی تجاری، طی دوره‌ی زمانی 2015-1967 را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. برای نیل به این هدف؛ از روش گونزالو و گرنجر که در چارچوب مدل هم جمعی چند متغیره‌ی یوهانس و یوسلیوس می‌باشد، استفاده شده است. نتایج تحلیل روندهای تصادفی مشترک نیز گویای این واقعیت است که کلیه‌ی کشورها واکنش شدیدی نسبت به روندهای یاد شده از خود نشان می‌دهند اما کشور چین رهبری ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی را بر عهده دارد. بر این اساس لازم است که به منظور دستیابی به رشد مستمر در کشاورزی، دولت از طریق کاهش تعرفه بر واردات بخش کشاورزی و دادن یارانه به صادرات بخش کشاورزی، تجارت در بخش کشاورزی خود را با کشور چین گسترش دهد تا بخش کشاورزی داخلی از رشد ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی جهانی بهره‌مند گردد.
One of the main goals of each country is to provide the food needed by society, which can be achieved through growth in agriculture. In this regard, the present study has tried to investigate the common stochastic trends between the value added of the agricultural sector of Iran and its major partner trading in the period of 1967-2015. To achieve this aims, the Gonzalo and Granger method, which is used in the framework of the multivariate coherent model of Johansen and Juselius (1990), has been used. The results show that there is 2 Correction and two common stochastic trend of agricultural value added in the studied countries, which reflects the complete lack of long-term integration between this group of countries. . Accordingly, in order to achieve sustainable growth in agriculture, the government will expand its agricultural trade with China by reducing tariffs on agricultural imports and subsidizing agricultural exports, so that the domestic agricultural sector will grow from value-added agriculture to the global agricultural sector.
Anderson, K. (2010).Globalization's effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050
. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 3007-3021.
Atici, C. (2002) .The impact of a complete trade liberalization on household groups in
Turkish economy: A CGE approach. In ERC/METU International Conference in
Economics, VI:11-14.
lonigen, B. A., Piger, J., and Sly, N. (2014). Co-movement in GDP trends and cycles
among trading partners. Journal of International Economics, 94(2): 239-247. al
interruptions). Agricultural Economics Research, 10 (2): 81-104. (In Persian).
Brown, P., and Lauder, H. (2009). Globalization, International Education, and the
Formation of a Transnational Class?. Yearbook of the National Society for the Study
of Education, 108(2): 147-130.
Carballo, J., Schaur, G., and Volpe, C. (2018). Transportation and trade interactions: a
trade facilitation perspective. Handbook of International Trade and Transportation.
Chopra, M., Galbraith, S., and Darnton-Hill, I. (2002). A global response to a global
problem: the epidemic of overnutrition. Bulletin of the World Health Organization,
80: 952-958.
Chang, Y., Jiang, B., and Park, J. Y. (2008). Using Kalman Filter to Extract and Test for
Common Stochastic Trends1.
Desilva, N., Malaga, J., and Johnson, J (2013). Trade liberalization effects on agricultural production growth: the case of Sri Lanka. In Southern Agricultural Economics
Association Annual (SAEA) Meeting. Orlando, 2-5. Florida.
Diao, X., Fan, S., and Zhang, X. (2002). How China's WTO accession affects rural
economy in the less-developed regions No. 87). International Food Policy Research
Institute (IFPRI).
Fritz, S., See, L., Bayas, J. C. L., Waldner, F., Jacques, D., Becker-Reshef, I.,and
Rembold, F. (2018). a comparison of global agricultural monitoring systems and
current gaps.. Agricultural Systems:1-15.
Gonzalo, J., and Granger, C. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(1):27-35
Hosseini, S. S., Pakravan, M. R., Gilanpour, A., And Haghi, M. (2011). Investigating
the effect of conservation policy in the agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics
and Development, 25 (4): 507-516. (In Persian).
Ismaili, A., and Rahmati, D. (2007). The effect of free trade on the growth of Iran's
agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics Quarterly, 2 (1): 119-128. (In Persian).
Kumar, A., Roy, D., Tripathi, G., Joshi, P. K., and Adhikari, R. P. (2016). Contracting by small farmers in commodities with export potential: Assessing farm profits of lentil
growers in Nepal (Vol. (Vol. 1533)). Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Khalilzadeh, J., Heydari, H., Faaljo, H., and Mohseni Zanozi, S.J. (2014). Investigating
the effect of WTO membership on Iran's agricultural sector (with a time series
approach). Journal of Regional Economics and Development, 20 (7): 194-217. (In
Persian).
Martin, W., and Mitra, D. (2001). Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing. Econ. Dev. Cultur. Change ,49: 403-423.
Mojarad, A., Homayounifar, M.; and Salarpour, M. (2013). The role of agriculture in the regional convergence of ECO member countries. Economic Research, 48 (2): 189-
211. (In Persian).
Mkpado, M., and Arene, C.J. )2012). Trade Liberalization Exchange Rate Changes, and
the Competitiveness of Carbohydrate Staple Markets in Nigeria. International
Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 2(2):121-136.
Noferesti, M. (2008). Roots units and all of them In economics. Publications: Institute
Services Cultural Ressa, Print 2. (In Persian).
Nick Ravesh, Q., Yazdani, S., Yavari, gh., and Kazem Nejad, M. (2017). The growth of
the agricultural sector and the ultimate desire to trade products. Agricultural
conomics: 127-141. (In Persian).
Pingali, P. (2007). Agricultural growth and economic development: a view through the
globalization lens Agricultural Economics, 37:1-12.
Reardon, T., Timmer, C. P., Barrett, C. B., and Berdegue, J. (2003). The rise of
supermarkets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. American journal of agricultural
economics, 85(5):1140-1146
Schreiber, S. (2017). The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory
decompositions in co-integrated systems. Econometric Review1-22.
Souri, A. (2016). Econometrics combined with Application, Farhang Shenasi
publication, fourth edition. (In Persian).
Shahabadi, A., Salmani, Y., and Seyed Arash, V. (2016). Gravity Model Approach: G8
and D7 Investigation of Agricultural Market Convergence in Countries 8. Agricultural
Economics Research: 127-150. (In Persian).
Zoraki,Sh., Motameni, M., and Nataj Fereyduni, M. (2016). Trade liberalization and
applied agricultural performance are indicators. Rosha economics research: 129-159.
(In Persian).
