بررسی روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و شرکای عمده تجاری

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مریم قره جعفری ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه.)
کیومرث شهبازی ² (استاد گروه اقتصاد ومدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.)
حسن خداویسی ³ (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1397/10/19 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/09/26 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/05/01

کلید واژه: روند تصادفی مشترک, روش گونزالو و گرنجر, رشد بخش کشاورزی, هم‌جمعی,

چکیده مقاله :

یکی از هدف‌های اصلی هر کشور، تأمین مواد غذایی موردنیاز جامعه است که از طریق رشد در بخش کشاورزی قابل دستیابی است. در این راستا، مطالعه‌ی حاضر تلاش کرده است؛ روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای طرف عمده‌ی تجاری، طی دوره‌ی زمانی 2015-1967 را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. برای نیل به این هدف؛ از روش گونزالو و گرنجر که در چارچوب مدل هم جمعی چند متغیره‌ی یوهانس و یوسلیوس می‌باشد، استفاده شده است. نتایج تحلیل روندهای تصادفی مشترک نیز گویای این واقعیت است که کلیه‌ی کشورها واکنش شدیدی نسبت به روندهای یاد شده از خود نشان می‌دهند اما کشور چین رهبری ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی را بر عهده دارد. بر این اساس لازم است که به منظور دستیابی به رشد مستمر در کشاورزی، دولت از طریق کاهش تعرفه بر واردات بخش کشاورزی و دادن یارانه به صادرات بخش کشاورزی، تجارت در بخش کشاورزی خود را با کشور چین گسترش دهد تا بخش کشاورزی داخلی از رشد ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی جهانی بهره‌مند گردد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

One of the main goals of each country is to provide the food needed by society, which can be achieved through growth in agriculture. In this regard, the present study has tried to investigate the common stochastic trends between the value added of the agricultural sector of Iran and its major partner trading in the period of 1967-2015. To achieve this aims, the Gonzalo and Granger method, which is used in the framework of the multivariate coherent model of Johansen and Juselius (1990), has been used. The results show that there is 2 Correction and two common stochastic trend of agricultural value added in the studied countries, which reflects the complete lack of long-term integration between this group of countries. . Accordingly, in order to achieve sustainable growth in agriculture, the government will expand its agricultural trade with China by reducing tariffs on agricultural imports and subsidizing agricultural exports, so that the domestic agricultural sector will grow from value-added agriculture to the global agricultural sector.

منابع و مأخذ:

Anderson, K. (2010).Globalization's effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050
   . Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 3007-3021.

Atici, C. (2002) .The impact of a complete trade liberalization on household groups in
    Turkish economy: A CGE approach‌. In ERC/METU International Conference in
    Economics, VI:11-14.

lonigen, B. A., Piger, J., and Sly, N. (2014). Co-movement in GDP trends and cycles
    among trading partners. Journal of International Economics, 94(2): 239-247. al
    interruptions). Agricultural Economics Research, 10 (2): 81-104. (In Persian).

Brown, P., and Lauder, H. (2009). Globalization, International Education, and the
    Formation of a Transnational Class?. Yearbook of the National Society for the Study
    of Education, 108(2): 147-130.

Carballo, J., Schaur, G., and Volpe, C. (2018). Transportation and trade interactions: a
    trade facilitation perspective‌. Handbook of International Trade and Transportation.

Chopra, M., Galbraith, S.,  and Darnton-Hill, I. (2002). A global response to a global
    problem: the epidemic of overnutrition‌. Bulletin of the World Health Organization,
    80: 952-958.

Chang, Y., Jiang, B., and Park, J. Y. (2008). Using Kalman Filter to Extract and Test for
    Common Stochastic Trends1.

Desilva, N., Malaga, J., and Johnson, J (2013). Trade liberalization effects on         agricultural production growth: the case of Sri Lanka. In Southern Agricultural Economics
    Association Annual (SAEA) Meeting. Orlando, 2-5. Florida.

   Diao, X., Fan, S., and Zhang, X. (2002). How China's WTO accession affects rural
    economy in the less-developed regions No. 87). International Food Policy Research
    Institute (IFPRI).

Fritz, S., See, L., Bayas, J. C. L., Waldner, F., Jacques, D., Becker-Reshef, I.,and  
    Rembold, F. (2018). a comparison of global agricultural monitoring systems and
    current gaps.‌. Agricultural Systems:1-15.

Gonzalo, J., and Granger, C. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(1):27-35

Hosseini, S. S., Pakravan, M. R., Gilanpour, A., And Haghi, M. (2011). Investigating
    the effect of conservation policy in the agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics
    and Development, 25 (4): 507-516. (In Persian).

Ismaili, A., and Rahmati, D. (2007). The effect of free trade on the growth of Iran's
    agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics Quarterly, 2 (1): 119-128. (In Persian).

Kumar, A., Roy, D., Tripathi, G., Joshi, P. K., and Adhikari, R. P. (2016). Contracting      by small farmers in commodities with export potential: Assessing farm profits of lentil
    growers in Nepal (Vol. (Vol. 1533)). Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Khalilzadeh, J., Heydari, H., Faaljo, H., and Mohseni Zanozi, S.J. (2014). Investigating
    the effect of WTO membership on Iran's agricultural sector (with a time series
    approach). Journal of Regional Economics and Development, 20 (7): 194-217. (In
    Persian).

Martin, W., and Mitra, D. (2001). Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and  manufacturing. Econ. Dev. Cultur. Change ,49: 403-423.

Mojarad, A., Homayounifar, M.; and Salarpour, M. (2013). The role of agriculture in the  regional convergence of ECO member countries. Economic Research, 48 (2): 189-
    211. (In Persian).

Mkpado, M., and Arene, C.J. )2012). Trade Liberalization Exchange Rate Changes, and
    the Competitiveness of Carbohydrate Staple Markets in Nigeria. International
    Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 2(2):121-136.

Noferesti, M. (2008). Roots units and all of them In economics. Publications: ‌Institute
    Services ‌Cultural‌ Ressa, ‌ Print 2. (In Persian).

Nick Ravesh, Q., Yazdani, S., Yavari, gh., and Kazem Nejad, M. (2017). The growth of
    the agricultural sector and the ultimate desire to trade products. Agricultural
    conomics: 127-141. (In Persian).

Pingali, P. (2007). Agricultural growth and economic development: a view through the
    globalization lens‌ Agricultural Economics, 37:1-12.

Reardon, T., Timmer, C. P., Barrett, C. B., and Berdegue, J. (2003). The rise of
    supermarkets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America‌. American journal of agricultural
    economics, 85(5):1140-1146

Schreiber, S. (2017). The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory
    decompositions in co-integrated systems. Econometric Review1-22.

Souri, A. (2016). Econometrics combined with Application, Farhang Shenasi
    publication, fourth edition. (In Persian).

Shahabadi, A., Salmani, Y., and Seyed Arash, V. (2016). Gravity Model Approach: G₈
    and D₇ Investigation of Agricultural Market Convergence in Countries 8. Agricultural
    Economics Research: 127-150. (In Persian).

Zoraki,Sh., Motameni, M., and Nataj Fereyduni, M. (2016). Trade liberalization and
    applied agricultural performance are indicators. Rosha economics research: 129-159.
    (In Persian).