اثر نقدینگی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در بازار مسکن شهری ایران
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ایسیامک شکوهی فرد 1 , علی سلمان پور زنوز 2 , فرزاد رحیم زاده 3 , زهرا ابراهیمی 4
1 - پسادکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
3 - استادیار،گروه اقتصادوحسابداری، دانشکده ادبیات وعلوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران
4 - گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: نقدینگی, بازار مسکن شهری, سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی, مدل خوتوضیح برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده,
چکیده مقاله :
اثر نقدینگی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در بازار مسکن شهری ایران
چکیده
بازار مسکن به عنوان یک بخش عمده اقتصادی، نقش مهمی در اقتصاد کشور دارا می‌باشد. با توجه به ساختار اقتصاد کشور و نیز با توجه به ویژگی مسکن به عنوان یک کالای سرمایه‌ای، قیمت مسکن همواره از نوسان‌ها و تحرک‌های مازاد نقدینگی در جامعه تأثیر می‌پذیرد و به صورت ادواری، با افزایش جهش‌وار مواجه است. بنابراین با توجه به اهمیت موضوع در مقاله پیش‌رو، در راستای بررسی اثرات نقدینگی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در بخش مسکن طی بازه زمانی 1399-1369 از مدل خود توضیح‌برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده استفاده شده است. مضاف بر این از مدل تصحیح خطا برای بررسی پویایی‌های کوتاه مدت و ارتباط دادن آن‌ها با رابطه بلند مدت ارائه شده توسط رگرسیون همجمعی کمک گرفته شد و نحوه تعدیل پویایی‌های کوتاه مدت در جهت تعادل بلند مدت بررسی شد. به طور کلی نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان می‌دهند که اثرات متغیرهای درآمدملی، نقدینگی، تسهیلات اعطایی خرید مسکن، شاخص بهای خدمات ساختمانی با یک‌سال وقفه و جمعیت با یک سال وقفه بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در مسکن شهری مثبت و معنادار می‌باشند. اما تاثیر متغیرهای قیمت مسکن و میانگین بازدهی بازارهای موازی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در بازار مسکن شهری منفی و معنادار می‌باشند. در نتیجه، نظر به تاثیر مثبت و معنادار متغیر مستقل اصلی پژوهش یعنی نقدینگی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی در بازار مسکن شهری ایران می توان این‌گونه بیان کرد که، افزایش نقدینگی موجب افزایش قدرت خرید مردم و پیامد آن افزایش میزان تقاضا و در نتیجه موجب ترغیب بخش خصوصی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بیشتر در بخش مسکن خواهد شد.
واژه های کلیدی: بازار مسکن شهری، سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی، نقدینگی، مدل خوتوضیح برداری با وقفه‌های گسترده.
The Effect of Liquidity on Private Investment in the Urban Housing Market in Iran
Abstract
The housing market, as a major economic sector, has an important role in the country's economy. Regarding the structure of the country's economy and also considering the characteristics of housing as a commodity, housing prices are always affected by fluctuations and surplusThe housing market is one of the important channels for the impact of monetary policy on the country's economy. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue in the present article, in order to study the effects of liquidity on private sector investment in the housing sector during the period 1990- 2021 a Auto regressive distributed lag model has been used. Also a model of error correction is used for studding of short-term dynamics and their relation with long-term dynamics is presented. In general, the results of the study show that the effects of variables on national income, liquidity, housing loan facilities, construction services price index with a one-year break and population with a one-year break and on private sector investment in urban housing are positive and significant. But the impact of housing price variables and the average return of parallel markets on private sector investment in the urban housing market are negativeand significant. As a result, considering the main positive and significant independent effect of the research, namely liquidity on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market, it can be said that increasing liquidity increases people's purchasing power and consequently increases demand and thus encourages the private sector. There will be more investment in the housing sector.
Keywords: Urban Housing Market, Private Sector Investment, Liquidity, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The housing market, as a major economic sector, has an important role in the country's economy, and due to its past and present relations, it is strongly affected by its economic fluctuations. Due to the structure of the country's economy and also due to the characteristics of housing as a capital commodity, housing prices are always affected by fluctuations and excess liquidity movements in society and periodically, face a jumping increase. The housing market is one of the important channels for the impact of monetary policy on the country's economy. Due to the intermittent increase in housing prices in Iran, especially in the years after the imposed war and the intermittent creation of housing price bubbles and the stagnation after the bursting of the housing price bubble, it has been suggested that intermittent increases in housing prices are due to Is the country. Liquidity from monetary policies in the economy has undeniable effects on private sector investment in the sector. In this regard, the hypotheses of the leading research are as follows:
Liquidity affects private sector investment in the Iranian urban housing market.
National income affects private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Construction services price index has an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Urban population affects private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Urban housing prices affect private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Housing purchase facilities have an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
The average return of parallel markets has an impact on private sector investment in Iran's urban housing market.
Methodology
This research is applied in terms of purpose. Leading research is also regression in terms of type of analysis. Multivariate linear regression models and microfiche software were used to analyze the data. In this research, documentary method has been used to collect information related to the literature and research background. Considering the importance of the issue the impact of liquidity on private sector investment in the housing sector during the period 1990- 2021 a Auto regressive distributed lag model has been used. In addition, we use the ECM to investigate short-term dynamics and relate them to the long-run relationship presented by summative regression, and also to examine how to adjust short-term dynamics for long-run equilibrium.For estimation, a Auto regressive distributed lag is used using Microfit software and in estimation, all possible interrupts of the final model with SBC are selected by the software.It is worth mentioning that the data and information related to the model have been extracted from the database of the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran.
Results and Discussion
The results of estimating the Auto regressive distributed lag model show that all variables except private sector investment which is significant at the level of 10%, all are significant at the level of 5% and the variable of construction services price index with one year interval at the level 1% is significant. Liquidity, population with a one-year break, as well as construction services price index with a one-year break and national income are directly related to private sector investment. But the population in the first year shows negative relationships.According to the table of critical values of Benarji, Dolado and Master statistics at the level of 95% significance, since the value of computational statistics (-6/5549) is more than the absolute statistics of the table (3/55), so the null hypothesis of no The existence of a long-term relationship between the research variables is rejected and we conclude that there is a long-term relationship between them.According to the results, it can be seen that all variables in the long run are significant at the level of 5% and 1% and except for the urban population variable, other variables have a positive effect on private sector investment in housing.Also, according to the obtained results, ECM shows the adjustment of short-term dynamics in the direction of long-term equilibrium relationships. Also, according to the estimated results of the error correction model, if the shock causes the variables to deviate from the initial short-term equilibrium, in each period about 77% of the short-term imbalance is corrected to the long-term equilibrium. Based on the estimated results, it can be seen that the CUSUM and CUSUMQ charts are located between the two critical lines at the level of 5%. Based on these results, the coefficients of the variables are stable during the period under study.
Conclusion
The results of research estimates show that all independent variables have a significant relationship with the dependent variable, namely private sector investment. National income, liquidity and the price index of construction services with a one-year break are directly related to private sector investment in urban housing.It should be noted that increasing liquidity will increase people's purchasing power and consequently increase demand and thus encourage the private sector to invest more in the housing sector. Apart from the fact that increasing demand can lead to rising prices or any other changes in other macroeconomic variables.Regarding liquidity, it is important to mention that in most developing countries, including Iran, due to the lack of financial markets (money and capital) and appropriate areas of activity, liquidity is directed to the housing sector or quick-return activities.Suggestions in the scope of the discussions and the results of the present article estimates can also be mentioned as follows:
1- Supporting the private sector in more investments in the housing sector, by giving various credits and privileges.
2- Targeting liquidity that, along with the housing sector, also leads to the mobilization of production activities, ie leads to a balance in the supply and demand market.
3- Supporting different sections of society, especially low-income people, by providing bank loans to support private sector investment in the housing sector. Investors are forced to withdraw their capital from the housing sector due to recession and lack of purchasing power. Do not do unnecessary activities and even the outflow of capital from the country.
4- Injecting the necessary liquidity in different sectors of the economy Due to the consequences such as inflation, it should be noted that the necessary liquidity for the injection can be provided in various ways that must be used carefully in the use of these resources.
5- Prosperity and activation of financial and capital markets, so that in addition to preventing capital outflows abroad, it can be directed.
References
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