آینده‌پژوهی برنامه‌ریزی توسعه روستایی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان ورزقان)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
عقیل خالقی
1
(دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران)
علی مجنونی توتاخانه
2
(دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران)
کلید واژه: توسعه روستایی, برنامه‌ریزی, آینده‌پژوهی, روش آمیخته, سناریوپردازی,
چکیده مقاله :
داشتن نگرشی ویژه به مقوله توسعه روستایی در قالب اهداف مشخص و در پرتو آینده‌نگاری دقیق می‌تواند راهگشای مسائلی باشد که امروزه جامعه روستایی را در بر گرفته و می‌توان فاکتورهای مؤثر را شناسایی نموده و به سناریو‌نگاری پرداخت. تحقیق حاضر با این هدف و در قلمرو پراگماتیسم - به‌عنوان پارادایم روش‌شناسی ترکیبی- به آینده‌نگاری توسعه روستایی پرداخته است. لذا ازلحاظ روش‌شناسی مربوط به روش‌های ترکیبی (آمیخته) بوده و بر اساس هدف از نوع کاربردی و ازلحاظ ماهیت و روش از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی و به لحاظ زمان از نوع آینده‌نگاری است. با توجه به نیاز تحقیق، از تعداد چهار حجم نمونه مختلف برای گردآوری و تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌های مربوط به بخش‌های «تحلیل اثرات ساختاری»، «تعریف وضعیت‌های احتمالی» و «تهیه سبد سناریو» استفاده شده است که شامل متخصصان در این زمینه است. برای شناسایی فاکتورهای کلیدی از ترکیب روش «مرور رسانه» و «STEEP (V)» و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار اطلس. تی.آی از تعداد 362 عنوان مقاله از 6 مجله معتبر در بازه زمانی 1397-1393 استفاده شده است. برای محاسبه روایی، از روش و تکنیک روایی محتوایی و صوری و برای سنجش پایائی پرسشنامه‌های تحقیق از روش آلفای کرونباخ (86/0) استفاده شده است. تحلیل ساختاری به روش میک‌مک نشان می‌دهد تعداد 56 عامل که در حوزه‌های (اجتماعی، فناورانه، اقتصادی، بوم‌شناسی، سیاسی) استخراج شدند، الگوی پراکندگی متغیرهای مؤثر حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم دارد. عوامل «توسعه مشارکت زنان در امور اجتماعی، مهاجرت، توسعه سلامت و کیفیت زندگی» از حوزه اجتماعی؛ عامل «توسعه ICT» از حوزه فناورانه؛ عامل «کارآفرینی روستایی» از حوزه اقتصادی و عامل «هویت مکانی» از حوزه ارزش‌ها، متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر آینده برنامه‌ریزی توسعه روستایی شهرستان ورزقان هستند. بر اساس وضعیت‌های احتمالی آینده پیش‌رو تعداد 33 وضعیت مختلف برای 11 فاکتور کلیدی طراحی شد که گزارش سناریو ویزارد نشان‌دهنده تعداد دو سناریوی قوی، 7894 سناریوی ضعیف و 42 سناریوی با سازگاری بالا می‌باشد. درنهایت، در افق برنامه هفتم توسعه، تعداد 15 سناریو که به‌عنوان سناریو‌های ایستا یا باورکردنی مطرح است انتظار می‌رود کمرنگ بودن توسعه مشارکت روستایی در فرایند برنامه‌ریزی‌ها همچنان در برنامه هفتم توسعه نیز مطرح باشد.
The present research in the field of pragmatism approach - as a mixed methodology paradigm - has addressed the future of rural development research; so, in terms of methodology, it's about mixed methods, by purpose it is a functional type, in terms of nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical one and in terms of time, it's kind of futuristic. According to the research needs, three different sample volumes were used to collect and analyze data related to Structural Impact Analysis, Defining Possible Situations and Scenario Basket sections, including experts in the field. To identify key factors, the combination of the "Media Browsing" and "STEEP (V)" method and using the Atlas.ti software, 362 article titles from 6 prestigious journals were used in the period 2014-2018; also, content and formal validity methods and techniques were used to calculate the validity and Cronbach's alpha (0.86) was used to measure the reliability of the research questionnaires. Structural analysis using the MicMac method shows that the dispersion patterns of the effective variables indicates system instability. Key factors: "Development of women's participation in social affairs, migration, health development and quality of life" from a social field; "ICT development" from a technological field; "Rural entrepreneurship" from an economic field and "spatial identity" factor from values field influencing the future of rural development planning in Varzaqan County. Finally, on the horizon of the Seventh Development Plan, 15 scenarios that are considered to be static or unbelievable scenarios are expected to be slightly diminished in the planning process in the Seventh Development Plan.
Keywords: Planning, Rural Development, Future Research, Scenario Planning, Mixed Methods.
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
Having a specific approach to rural development in terms of specific goals and policies and in the light of a rigorous future study of the productive and infrastructural possibilities of the village and the resources available at the macro level can open up the issues and bottlenecks that the rural community is facing today. Along with other rural areas, rural development in the Varzaqan County has always faced major challenges. It seems that if a complete portfolio of rural development components can be identified to suit the situation of the County and with the participation of all stakeholders identify the relationships between the influential components and identify the most important ones for presenting rural development scenarios. Traditionally, planning can be transformed into a futuristic planning process whose ultimate goal can be to develop villages and improve the quality of life. Based on this, it can be said that the main purpose of the present study is to achieve three important and relevant objectives in rural development of Varzaqan, namely: "Structural Impact Analysis", "Defining Possible Situations" and "Preparing a Scenario Basket". In fact, it can be said that the purpose of this research is to study the future development of rural development in Varzaqan County. To achieve this goal, key factors of rural development have been identified and analyzed with the help of expert group on structural relationships between proponents to identify possible situations. Rural Development identified the County and ultimately tailored the rural development planning scenario to each of the uncertainties.
Methodology:
The present research in the field of pragmatism approach - as a mixed methodology paradigm - has addressed the future of rural development research; so, in terms of methodology, it's about mixed methods, by purpose it is a functional type, in terms of nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical one and in terms of time, it's kind of futuristic. According to the research needs, three different sample volumes were used to collect and analyze data related to Structural Impact Analysis, Defining Possible Situations and Scenario Basket sections, including experts in the field. To identify key factors, the combination of the "Media Browsing" and "STEEP (V)" method and using the Atlas.ti software, 362 article titles from 6 prestigious journals were used in the period 2014-2018; also, content and formal validity methods and techniques were used to calculate the validity and Cronbach's alpha (0.86) was used to measure the reliability of the research questionnaires.
Findings:
A total of 56 factors were extracted in the areas (social, technological, economic, ecological, political, and values). Secondly, identify the factors of cross-matrix variables to their level and extent of impact on each other and on the future rural development planning process. Number of factors "Development of women's participation in social affairs, migration, development of health and quality of life" from social field; "ICT development" from technological field; "Rural entrepreneurship" from economic field and "spatial identity" from values field are effective. In order to continue working on possible future statuses of rural development planning in the city, a total of 33 different situations were identified for 11 key factors, including three desirable, intermediate and undesirable spectra.
Scenarios resulting from key components illustrate the existence of the framework needed to deliver favorable Golden Scenarios and scenarios centered on "human capacity building and collective trust to develop rural partnerships", "designing and implementing appropriate policies to enhance the role of local communities." Rural Development Planning "," Effective Rural Land Use Management in the Rural Development Planning Process "," Agricultural Development and Management Together with Rural Development "and" Special Attention to Rural Housing Improvement and Renovation in Rural Development Plans ", from Performance and Success They have more. In fact, the success or failure of rural development in Varzaqan in the future will depend on whether or not the role of the scenarios is considered. The highly feasible scenario during the Seventh Development Plan for Rural Development Planning is a near-intermediate and static scenario. This scenario will be achieved in the unfavorable state of socio-economic factors and in favorable and slightly improving (existing) physical-environmental factors. Therefore, in the short-term future (2025) and on the horizon of the Seventh Socio-Cultural Development Plan, the scenario of "the lack of development of rural participation in the planning process" is the most likely scenario.
Conclusion:
Overall, in the unbelievable scenario, it was concluded that in the seventh plan horizon, the scenario of "the modest development of rural participation in the planning process" is the most likely scenario, but in the long run, the gradual improvement of managerial factors and policy inefficiencies may provide the opportunity to enhance economic factors- It did not provide social support and move this scenario to a disaster scenario. The overall results of this study are consistent with those of Karimzadeh and Majnouni (1398) and Taghilo et al. (2016). Also the results of this research in the section "Key Factors" in the categories "ICT Development, Rural Migration and Agricultural Development" with the results of Bezazzadeh study (2014); The categories of “Rural Land Use, Rural Rehabilitation and Renovation” are in line with the results of the Tietjen & Jørgensen study (2016) and in the category of “Rural employment development” with the results of the Bastos & Weber study (2018). Also the scenario presented is consistent with the results of Badri et al. (2019) study. The results of the research findings using Wizards software indicate that 15 scenarios are considered as static or unbelievable scenarios for city development planning. Out of the three groups of scenarios identified, the scenarios with high feasibility were considered as the most numerous and if the correct plans were selected, they could provide the basis for rural development in Varzaqan.
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