تحلیل وضعیت اشتغالِ بخش های عمده اقتصادی در شهرستان های استان اردبیل
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
هوشنگ سرور
1
(استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران)
رحیم سرور
2
(استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
سولماز سرباز گلی
3
(کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران)
کلید واژه: اشتغال, استان اردبیل, مدل تغییر سهم, ضریب مکانی,
چکیده مقاله :
مبحث اشتغال و به طور کلی نوع فعالیت نیروی انسانی در بخشهای مختلف از موضوعات مهم جغرافیای اقتصادی میباشد. در اقتصاد ایران اشتغال از دغدغههای اصلی سیاستگذاران اقتصادی است و همچنین بخشهای اقتصادی از ارکان توسعه هر منطقه محسوب میشود. لازمهی تدوین یک برنامه مناسب برای اشتغالزایی و توسعه پایدار منطقه، شناخت دقیق از استعدادها و توانهای بالقوه بخشها و چگونگی ترکیب آن در مناطق میباشد، تا بر اساس این شناخت برنامهریزی و اشتغالزایی متوازن و متعادلی در هریک از بخشها و مناطق ایجاد شود. این تحقیق بصورت توصیفی و تحلیلی به مطالعه وضعیت اشتغال بخشها و گروههای عمده فعالیتهای اقتصادی در مراکز شهرستانهای استان اردبیل طی سال های 90-1385 پرداخته است. مدلهای مورد استفاده در این تحقیق، مدل تغییر سهم با هدف تعیین ضریب رشد و پیش بینی وضعیت اشتغال بخشهای اقتصادی هر یک از شهرستانها، مدل ضریب مکانی برای تعیین وضعیت هر یک از بخشهای اقتصادی از نظر صادرات و واردات و همچنین محاسبه نرخ بیکاری میباشد. نتایج حاصله نشان دهنده وجود عدم تعادل بین بخشهای سه گانه اقتصادی میباشد. بطوریکه بخش خدمات در استان بصورت فزاینده رشد نموده و بر بخشهای دیگر مسلط شده است. نرخ بیکاری در استان در سال 1385 (84/12) درصد و در سال1390 به (92/16) درصد افزایش یافته است. نرخ رشد در کل اقتصاد مرجع (اردبیل) برابر 09/0 می باشد. در بین بخشهای اقتصادی استان طی سال های90-1385 بخش کشاورزی مثبت و دارای صعود بوده است. همچنین در طی سال های 90-1385 در استان بخش کشاورزی صادرکننده کالا، و جزء فعالیتهای پایهای و بخش خدمات و صنعت واردکننده کالا و جزء فعالیت غیرپایهای محسوب میشوند.
Employment and generally activity type of labor force is important topic is economic geography. Employment is the main concern for economic policy makers in the Iran economy. Economic parts are the principal components in the development of each region. In order to program development for job creation and sustainable development in the region, it is necessary the exact understanding of the potential parts and its combination in the regions, so that balanced planning and employment can be achieved in each sectors parts and regions. This research, with descriptive and analytical methodology, is the investigating employment parts and economic activity groups in the of Ardabil province cities in the 2006-20011's. Used models in this research are Shift-Share Analysis model to determine rate and Forecasting economic sectors each cities in terms of employment, Location Quotient model to determine the status of each of the economic sectors in terms of exports and imports, And also in order to calculate the unemployment rate. The results show that there is an imbalance between the three parts of the economy, which the service sector has been dominant for other parts in province. The unemployment rate in the province was 12.84 percent in 2006 and has increased to 16.92 in 2011.The growth rate in the whole reference economy of Ardabil is 0.09.In the middle of economic sectors in 2006-2011 agricultural section has been positive and ascending. Also during 2006-2011, Agricultural section was the exporter of goods and services and also was the basic activity. Services and industry sections were the importer of goods and services and the non-basic activity.
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