واکاوی اولین یخبندان پاییزه و آخرین یخبندان بهاره با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم ایستگاه همدید گرگان

محورهای موضوعی :

حسین ایمانی پور ¹ (دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران)
عبدالرضا کاشکی ² (گروه آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران)
مینا فیروزیزدی ³ (دانش آموخته کارشناسی آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/02/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/02/11 تاریخ انتشار : 1398/07/01

کلید واژه:  شبیه‌سازی,  تعداد روزهای یخبندان,  سناریو,  گرمایش جهانی,

چکیده مقاله :

تغییر در تاریخ وقوع اولین یخبندان پاییزه و آخرین یخبندان بهاره، می­تواند تهدیدی جدی برای باغداران و کشاورزان باشد. هدف از این مطالعه، اطلاع از نحوه این تغییر در دوره­ی آینده (2068-2015) نسبت به دوره­ی پایه (2014-1961) در ایستگاه گرگان بود. بدین منظور داده­های روزانه دمای کمینه ایستگاه گرگان در دوره­ی پایه از اداره کل هواشناسی استان گلستان دریافت شد. سپس داده­های انسپ و سناریوهای خوشبینانه، حدواسط و بدبینانه­ی گزارش پنجم هیات بین­الدول تغییراقلیم از سایت تغییر اقلیم کانادا بارگیری و با استفاده از نرم­افزار SDSM داده­های کمینه دما در دوره­ی آینده برای سه سناریو مذکور تولید شد. سپس تاریخ شروع و پایان یخبندان به روز ژولیوسی محاسبه و با استفاده از نرم­افزار اسمادا با توزیع­های آماری مختلف برازش داده شد و با استفاده از توزیع­های مناسب­تر احتمال وقوع روزهای یخبندان محاسبه شد. نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر آن است که دوره­ی یخبندان در دوره­ی پایه 75 روز و برای دوره­ی آینده در سناریوی خوشبینانه 46 روز، در سناریو حدواسط 39 روز و در سناریوی بدبینانه 31 روز است که این نتایج نشان­دهنده کاهش معنی­دار دوره­ی یخبندان و افزایش دوره­ی رشد (رویش) گیاهان در دوره­ی آینده است که هوشیاری بیشتر برنامه­ریزان را جهت مقابله با آثار مخرب تغییر­اقلیم می­طلبد

چکیده انگلیسی:

Changes in the history of the first frost of autumn and the last frost in the spring could be a serious threat to gardeners and farmers. The purpose of this study is to know how this change will be in the future period (2015-2068) compared to the base period (1961-2014) at Gorgan Station. For this purpose, daily data of the Gorgan Minimum Temperature Station was obtained at the observation period from the Golestan Meteorological Office. Then NCEP data, CanESM_RCP_26, RCP_45, RCP 85 were downloaded from Canada's Climate Change site, and using SDSM software, the minimum temperature data for the next period was generated for the three scenarios. Then, the date of the beginning and the end of the glacial to date of Julius was calculated and fitted with SMADA software with different statistical distributions and, using more suitable distributions, the probability of occurrence of freezing days was calculated. The results of this study indicate that the glacial period in the observation period is 75 days. it is also 46 days for the upcoming period in the optimistic scenario. It includes 39 days in the intermediate period and 31 days in the pessimistic scenario, which results in a significant decrease in the duration of the ice period and the increase of the period Growth of plants in the course of the future, which requires more vigilance of planners to deal with the destructive effects of climate change.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Alijani B, Mahmoudi P, Rigi Khachi E, Khosravi P (2010) Investigating the persistence of freezing days in Iran using the Markov chain model. Natural Geographic Survey 42(73): 1-20. [In Persian with English abstract].
2. Babayan (2012) Climate Dialogue. Available on-line as <https:// climate.mihanblog.com/post/4> on 21 April 2018.
3. Bahiar MB, Khayand Andish M, Zamanian MT (2013) Investigating the effects of climate change on the number of days of the first autumn frost and the last frost of spring in Iran using SDSM scale magnitudes. The 15^th and 16^th Climate Studies Journal, Year 4. [in Persian with English abstract]
4. Bonsal BR, Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD (2001) Characteristics of Daily and Extreme Temperatures over Canada. – Climate 4(9): 1959-1976.
5. Darand M (2012) Assessment and Recognition of Climate Change in Iran over the past decade. Iran's Watershed. Sciences and Engineering. 30(9). 1-7. [in Persian with English abstract]
6. Fallah Ghalhari G, Shakeri F, Nodehi O (2018) The zoning of spatial and temporal distribution of the beginning, the end, and the frequency of freezing in Khorasan Razavi province. Human & Environment 16(1): 13-24. [in Persian with English abstract]
   1. Hezhibarpour Q, Alijani B (2007) Analysis of frozen weather in Ardebil province. Geography and Development Quarterly. 5(10): 89-106. [in Persian with English abstract]
7. Jahanbakhsh S, Rezaie S, Ghasemi AR, Tadayoni M (2011) Synoptic analysis of spring frost in Tabriz (Case study: Spring cold 2003 and 2004). Geographical Survey Quarterly, 26(3): 102. [In Persian with English abstract].
8. Kashki A, Khoshhal J (2013) Investigation of the Role of Polar Vortex in Iranian First and Last Snowfalls. Journal of Geography and Geology.  5)4): 161-168.
9. Khosh akhlagh F, Hanafi A, Soltani M (2011) Detection of ice characteristics at Saghez synoptic station. 1(1): 59-66. [In Persian with English abstract].
10. Madelin M, G Beltrando (2005) Spatial Interpolation – Based Mapping of the Spring Frost Hazard in the Champagne Vineyards. Meteorological applications 12(1): 51–56.
11. Martinez M D, Serra C, Burgueno A, Lana X (2010) Time trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Catalonia (ne Spain) for the period. 2004-1957. International Journal of Climatology. 30(1): 267-290.
12. Mohammadi H, Gozlukho M (2010) Effect of early autumn and late spring frost on grazing in Karaj city. Geographical Quarterly. 27(7): 93-109. [In Persian with English abstract]
13. Muller G.V, Nunez M.N and Seluchi M.E (2000) Relationship between ENSO Cycles and Frost Events within the Pampa Humeda Region. International journal of climatology. 20 (13): 1619-1637.
14. Seyed Nezhad Gole khatmi N, Rezaei Pejand H (2015) Potential Ice Age Analysis and Its Relationship with Temperature Indices Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Hamadan Station. Water and Soil Journal (Agriculture Sciences and Technology), 29(4): 838-849. [In Persian with English abstract]
15. Skaggs K, Irmak S (2015) Long-term trends in air temperature distribution and extremes, growing degree‐days, and spring and fall frosts for climate impact assessments on agricultural practices in Nebraska. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 51(11): 2060-2073.
16. Tait A, X Zheng (2003) Mapping Frost Occurrence Using Satellite Data. Journal of applied meteorology. 42(2): 193- 203.
17. Tavakoli M, Hosseini, M (2006) Evaluation of frost index and its beginning of autumn in Iran (studying Hamadan's Ekbatan station). Iran Meteorological Organization 61: 31-42. [In Persian with English abstract]

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1. Alijani B, Mahmoudi P, Rigi Khachi E, Khosravi P (2010) Investigating the persistence of freezing days in Iran using the Markov chain model. Natural Geographic Survey 42(73): 1-20. [In Persian with English abstract].
2. Babayan (2012) Climate Dialogue. Available on-line as <https:// climate.mihanblog.com/post/4> on 21 April 2018.
3. Bahiar MB, Khayand Andish M, Zamanian MT (2013) Investigating the effects of climate change on the number of days of the first autumn frost and the last frost of spring in Iran using SDSM scale magnitudes. The 15^th and 16^th Climate Studies Journal, Year 4. [in Persian with English abstract]
4. Bonsal BR, Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD (2001) Characteristics of Daily and Extreme Temperatures over Canada. – Climate 4(9): 1959-1976.
5. Darand M (2012) Assessment and Recognition of Climate Change in Iran over the past decade. Iran's Watershed. Sciences and Engineering. 30(9). 1-7. [in Persian with English abstract]
6. Fallah Ghalhari G, Shakeri F, Nodehi O (2018) The zoning of spatial and temporal distribution of the beginning, the end, and the frequency of freezing in Khorasan Razavi province. Human & Environment 16(1): 13-24. [in Persian with English abstract]
   1. Hezhibarpour Q, Alijani B (2007) Analysis of frozen weather in Ardebil province. Geography and Development Quarterly. 5(10): 89-106. [in Persian with English abstract]
7. Jahanbakhsh S, Rezaie S, Ghasemi AR, Tadayoni M (2011) Synoptic analysis of spring frost in Tabriz (Case study: Spring cold 2003 and 2004). Geographical Survey Quarterly, 26(3): 102. [In Persian with English abstract].
8. Kashki A, Khoshhal J (2013) Investigation of the Role of Polar Vortex in Iranian First and Last Snowfalls. Journal of Geography and Geology.  5)4): 161-168.
9. Khosh akhlagh F, Hanafi A, Soltani M (2011) Detection of ice characteristics at Saghez synoptic station. 1(1): 59-66. [In Persian with English abstract].
10. Madelin M, G Beltrando (2005) Spatial Interpolation – Based Mapping of the Spring Frost Hazard in the Champagne Vineyards. Meteorological applications 12(1): 51–56.
11. Martinez M D, Serra C, Burgueno A, Lana X (2010) Time trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in Catalonia (ne Spain) for the period. 2004-1957. International Journal of Climatology. 30(1): 267-290.
12. Mohammadi H, Gozlukho M (2010) Effect of early autumn and late spring frost on grazing in Karaj city. Geographical Quarterly. 27(7): 93-109. [In Persian with English abstract]
13. Muller G.V, Nunez M.N and Seluchi M.E (2000) Relationship between ENSO Cycles and Frost Events within the Pampa Humeda Region. International journal of climatology. 20 (13): 1619-1637.
14. Seyed Nezhad Gole khatmi N, Rezaei Pejand H (2015) Potential Ice Age Analysis and Its Relationship with Temperature Indices Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Hamadan Station. Water and Soil Journal (Agriculture Sciences and Technology), 29(4): 838-849. [In Persian with English abstract]
15. Skaggs K, Irmak S (2015) Long-term trends in air temperature distribution and extremes, growing degree‐days, and spring and fall frosts for climate impact assessments on agricultural practices in Nebraska. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 51(11): 2060-2073.
16. Tait A, X Zheng (2003) Mapping Frost Occurrence Using Satellite Data. Journal of applied meteorology. 42(2): 193- 203.
17. Tavakoli M, Hosseini, M (2006) Evaluation of frost index and its beginning of autumn in Iran (studying Hamadan's Ekbatan station). Iran Meteorological Organization 61: 31-42. [In Persian with English abstract]