شناسایی پیشران های تاب آوری شهری با رویكرد آینده پژوهی سناریو مبنا (نمونه موردی: شهر ساری)

محورهای موضوعی : شهرسازی

میر سعید موسوی ¹ , بهناز امین نیری ² , احسان داورپناه ³ , یاسر خان محمدی ⁴

1 - گروه شهرسازی،پردیس بین الملل،واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
2 - دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، گروه معماری و شهرسازی، واحد بین المللی ارس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
3 - دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، واحد بین المللی ارس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، گروه معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/01/20 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/06/24 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/12/25

کلید واژه: تاب آوری شهری, آینده پژوهی, برنامه ریزی سناریو, شهر ساری.,

چکیده مقاله :

تاب آوری کالبدی،می تواند وضعیت جوامع را از نظر ویژگی های فیزیکی و جغرافیایی تأثیرگذار در هنگام برروز سانحه ارزیابی نماید. برای این کار از روشهای ترکیبی اسنادی و پیمایشی، جهت تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزار Micmac استفاده شده است.مطالعات صورت گرفته 20 متغیر اولیه تأثیرگذار بر تاب آوری در ابعاد اجتماعی، اقتصادی، نهادی و زیست محیطی انتخاب شده و در نهایت بر مبنای نظرات 30 کارشناس، پنج متغیر کلیدی حاشیه نشینی، مهاجرت، درصد شهرنشینی از گروه شاخص اجتماعی و متغیرهای سطح درآمد و نرخ اشتغال از گروه شاخص اقتصادی در ماتریس اثرات متقاطع نرم افزار Micmac شناسایی شد. در ادامه، پس از تعریف وضعیت های مطلوب و فاجعه برای هر یک از متغیرهای کلیدی و ارزیابی تأثیر هر یک از این وضعیت ها بر یکدیگر توسط متخصصان، با استفاده از نرم افزار Scenario Wizard به تحلیل الگوهای سناریوهای پیش روی شهر ساری پرداخته شد .نتایج حاصل از این تحلیل منجر به ارائه و پیشنهاد یک سناریوی مطلوب و یک سناریوی فاجعه برای آینده تاب آوری شهر ساری شده است در صورت ایجاد و تأمین زیرساخت های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، نهادی و زیست محیطی و برنامه ریزی های استراتژیک و آینده نگرانه در عرصة تاب آوری در سطوح مختلف برنامه ریزی شهری، سناریوی مطلوب برای آینده شهر ساری دنبال خواهد شد در غیر این صورت در بلندمدت با تخریب و عدم تأمین زیرساخت های ضروری، تحقق سناریوی فاجعه و تخریب عناصر تاب آوری در شهر ساری سرعت می گیرد

چکیده انگلیسی:

abstract:This paper examines the issue of resilience in urban development and planning, with a specific focus on the city of Sari. It highlights the challenges faced by Sari, such as its compact and densely populated structure, deteriorating fabric, and socio-economic disparities among residents. The research aims to identify the factors contributing to resilience in Sari through a scenario-based approach, utilizing surveys and interviews for data collection. The Delphi evaluation identified key influencing factors, including immigration and urbanization pressures, lack of awareness and absence of technical and executive mechanisms, instability of ecological resources, and physical exhaustion, as significant obstacles. Experts have identified dimensions of urban resilience in economic, social, institutional, and environmental categories and identified 20 primary variables impacting resilience in these dimensions. The economic indicator group selected five key variables: marginalization, migration, percentage of urbanization, income level, and employment rate. The Scenario Wizard software was used to propose 10 favorable and disastrous scenarios for enhancing future resilience. The research underscores the inadequate understanding of resilience and its relationship with urban planning goals in domestic research, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive studies in urban management and governance. It also highlights the challenges faced by urban management in Iran, leading to unresolved problems and wasted resources when dealing with crises. Overall, the text emphasizes the importance of understanding and addressing resilience in urban planning, especially in the face of challenges encountered by cities like Sari. It highlights the need for more comprehensive and strategic approaches to urban management and governance.

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