بررسی رابطه کیفیت نهادی، شمول مالی، توسعه اجتماعی و رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران: رویکرد سیستم معادلات همزمان
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات توسعه اجتماعی ایران
نیلوفر خاتمی
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
)
حسین شریفی رنانی
2
(
دانشیار اقتصاد، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
)
بهار حافظی
3
(
استادیار اقتصاد، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران،
)
کلید واژه: کیفیت نهادی, شمول مالی, توسعه اجتماعی, رشد اقتصادی, سیستم معادلات همزمان.,
چکیده مقاله :
در طول دهه گذشته، ترویج شمول مالی به عنوان یک هدف نهایی برای دستیابی به رشد فراگیر برای بسیاری از کشورها، به ویژه کشورهای در حال توسعه بوده است. در این رابطه، از یک طرف کیفیت نهادی می تواند بر شمول مالی اثر گذاری داشته باشد؛ از طرف دیگر، شمول مالی اگر در تمامی ابعاد خود تحقق پیدا کرده باشد، می تواند بر رشد اقتصادی اثر گذار باشد. از طرف دیگر، مبنای رشد اقتصادی بر پایه توسعه اجتماعی استوار است و نمی توان این عنوان را نادیده گرفت. بر اساس این استدلالات، می توان نتیجه گیری نمود که ممکن است نوعی رابطه همزمان بین کیفیت نهادی و شمول مالی از یک طرف؛ شمول مالی و توسعه اجتماعی با رشد اقتصادی از طرف دیگر وجود داشته باشد. در همین راستا در تحقیق حاضر به بررسی رابطه کیفیت نهادی، شمول مالی، توسعه اجتماعی و رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران بر اساس رویکرد سیستم معادلات همزمان طی دوره زمانی 1990 تا 2022 پرداخته شده است. یافته های تحقیق نشان داد که شمول مالی اثر گذاری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران داشته است. همچنین مشاهده شد که کیفیت نهادی نیز توانسته اثر گذاری مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی داشته باشد. علاوه بر این مشاهده شد که توسعه اجتماعی نیز منجر به ارتقای رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران شده است.
During the last decade, promoting financial inclusion has been an ultimate goal to achieve inclusive growth for many countries, especially developing countries. In this regard, on the one hand, institutional quality can have an effect on financial inclusion; On the other hand, if financial inclusion is realized in all its dimensions, it can affect economic growth. On the other hand, the basis of economic growth is based on social development, and this title cannot be ignored. Based on these arguments, it can be concluded that there may be a simultaneous relationship between institutional quality and financial inclusion on the one hand; there should be financial inclusion and social development with economic growth on the other hand. In this regard, in the present research, the relationship between institutional quality, financial inclusion, social development and economic growth in Iran has been investigated based on the simultaneous equation system approach during the period from 1990 to 2022. The findings of the research showed that financial inclusion had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Iran. It was also observed that institutional quality has a positive effect on economic growth. In addition, it was observed that social development has also led to the promotion of economic growth in Iran. Based on this, it is concluded that financial inclusion and social development directly and institutional quality, both directly and indirectly and through strengthening financial inclusion, have led to the improvement of the economic growth of Iran during the reviewed period.
بالونژاد نوری، ر و شجری پور، ش (1400). بررسی رابطه علیت میان رشد اقتصادی و شمول مالی: کاربردی از روش علیت بوت استرپ، نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد سال هشتم زمستان 1400 شماره 4.
سرافرازی، م و شاه آبادی، ا و سلیمی، ص (1401) مولفه ها و ابعاد حکمرانی خوب و نقش آن بر رشد و شکوفایی اقتصادی کشورهای در حال توسعه. نشریه سیاست علم وفناوری، 7(2)، 35-46.
صفریان، ر و شهرام نیا، ا، م و امام جمعه زاده، س ج و مسعودی نیا، ح (1399). الگوی حکمرانی خوب و توسعه ی اقتصادی در ایران و ترکیه (2006 تا 2017) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)، رهیافت های سیاسی و بین المللی، 11 (60)، 111-86.
متقی، س (1396). بررسی نقش توسعه اجتماعی بر رشد اقتصادی (مطالعه موردی : کشورهای ایران و ترکیه)، مطالعه توسعه اجتماعی ایران، 9 (3)، 68-57.
مفتخری، ف، و نادمی، ی، و کاوند، ع (1400). تاثیر سرمایه اجتماعی بر رابطه سرمایه انسانی و رشد اقتصادی، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان، 16 (31)، 198-179.
A. Barajas, T. Beck, M. Belhaj, S.B. Naceur (2024). Financial inclusion: what have we learned so far? What do we have to learn? (2024), IMF working paper No. WP/20/57.
A. Banerjee, A. Newman (2013). Occupational choice and the process of development, J. Polit. Econ., 101 (2), pp. 274-298
Aman Pushp and Rahul Singh Gautam and Vikas Tripathi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya and Shailesh Rastogi and Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu and Neha Parashar (2023). Impact of financial Inclusion on India’s Economic Development under the Moderating Effect of Internet Subscribers, J. Risk financial Manag. 2023, 16, 262.https://doi. org/10. 3390/jrfm16050262.
Ahmad, M., Majeed, A., Khan, M. A., Sohaib, M., & Shehzad, K. (2022). Digital financial inclusion and economic growth: Provincial data analysis of China. China Economic Journal,Volume 14, Issue 3,pp 1-20.
A. Demirgüç-Kunt, V. Maksimovic (2008). Law, finance and firm growth, J. Finance, 53 (6) (2008), pp. 2107-2137
Barro, R. (1996). “Health and economic growth”, Mimeo. Dge, MA: Harvard University World Health Organization, world Health Statistics, 2006. 3.
Barro, Robert and Jong-Wha Lee. (2007). “Schooling Quality in a Cross-Section of Countries.” Working paper 6198. Cambridge, Mass.:National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., Sevilla, J., (2019). Economic Growth and Demographic Transition .
B. Hechmy (2021). Governance and financial development: evidence from the Middle East and North africa region, Economet. Res. Finan., 1 (2), pp. 115-127.
C.B. Ezirim (2020). The Nigerian financial superstructure, financial intermediation, and environmental factors, J. Afr. Bus., 5 (2), pp. 137-161
D.W. Kim, J.S. Yu, M.K. Hassan (2021). Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries, Res. Int. Bus. Finance, 43 (7), pp. 1-14.
Dollar, David and Aart Kraay. (2022). “Growth is Good for the Poor.” Journal of Economic Growth. Vol. 7 No. 3, pp. 195.
D.H. Vo, N.T. Nguyen, L.T.H. Van (2022). Financial inclusion and stability in the Asian region using bank-level data, Borsa Istanbul Rev., 21 (1), pp. 36-43.
D. Avom, C. Bangake, H. Ndoya (2021). Does bank concentration stem from financial inclusion in Africa?, Appl. Econ., 54 (28), pp. 3261-3278.
Dziekański, F.; Prus , M (2020). Concentration, competition and financial stability in the South-East Europe banking context. International Review of Economics & Finance, 76, 639-670.
Ehsanul Haque Shipon (2023). How Important Is Social Development for Economic Growth?, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372719766• July 2023.
Emara, Noha and El Said, Ayah (2021). Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth: The Role of Governance in Selected MENA Countries, Online at https://mpra.ub.uni muenchen.de/99257/ MPRA Paper No. 99257, posted 27 Mar 2020 07:51 UTC.
E.S. Shaw (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press, New York, NY (1973).
Forsythe, Nancy, Roberto Patricio Korzeniewicz, and Valerie Durrant. (2020). “Gender Inequalities and Economic Growth: A Longitudinal Evaluation.” Economic Development and Cultural Change. Vol. 48 No. 3, pp. 573-617.
Hadri, K. & Rao, Y. (2008). Panel stationarity test with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, Vol. 70(2), pp.245-269.
I. Love, M.S.M. Peria (2021). How Bank Competition Affects Firms’ Access to Finance, World Bank Policy Research Working (2021), Paper No. 6163.
J.A. Schumpeter (1991). The Theory of Economic Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1911)
J.A. Karikari (2020). Governance, Financial Liberalization, and Financial Development in Sub-saharan Africa, African Economic Conference (2020) November 2020.
L.T.H. Van, A.T. Vo, N.T. Nguyen, D.H. Vo (2019). Financial inclusion and economic growth: an international evidence, Emerg. Mark. Finance Trade, 57 (1), pp. 239-263
Janelle Jones (2020). Economic Growth and Social Development, Illinois State University ISU ReD: Research and eData.
Loan Thi-Hong Van, Nhan Thien Nguyen, Hung Le-Phuc Nguyen, Duc Hong Vo (2023). The asymmetric effects of institutional quality on financial inclusion in the Asia-pacific region, Heliyon Volume 8, Issue 12, December 2023, e12016.
M. Ahameda, S. Mallick (2019). Is financial inclusion good for bank stability? International evidence, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 157 (2019), pp. 403-427
M. Cihak, A. Demirguc-Kunt, E. Feyen, R. Levine (2023). Financial development in 205 economies, 1960 to 2020, J. Finan. Persp., 1 (2), pp. 17-36
M. Cihak, D.S. Mare, M. Melecky (2020). The Nexus of Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability: A Study of Trade-Offs and Synergies, World Bank Working Paper No. 7722, Washington DC (2020).
M. Pagano, P. Volpin (2021). The political economy of finance, Oxf. Rev. Econ. Pol., 17 (4), pp. 502-519
M. Zulkhibri, R. Ghazal (2023). The impacts of governance and institution on financial inclusion: evidence from Muslim countries and developing economies, JKAU Islamic Econ., 30 (Special issue) (2023), pp. 37-60.
Meshesha Demie Jima and Patricia Lindelwa Makoni (2023). financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa—A Panel ARDL and Granger Non-Causality Approach, J. Risk financial Manag. 2023, 16, 299.https://doi.org/ 10.3390/ jrfm16060299.
M. Talmaciu (2021). Emerging market queries in finance and business: study on the relationships between institutions, governance and leadership and regional development policy in Romania, Procedia Econ. Finance, 15, pp. 1281-1288.
M.M. Ahamed, S.K. Mallick (2019). Is financial inclusion good for bank stability? International evidence, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 157 (14), pp. 403-427.
Moris, A. (2009). Human Development and the Optimal Size of Government", Journal of Socio-Economics, 38: 326-330.
N.T. Nguyen, H.S. Nguyen, C.M. Ho, D.H. Vo (2022). The convergence of financial inclusion across provinces in Vietnam: a novel approach, PLoS One, 16 (8), Article e0256524.
N. Camara, D. Tuesta (2023). Measuring Financial Inclusion: A Multidimensional index (September 2023), BBVA Research Paper No. 14/26.
Prasad, Naren. (2019). “Growth and social development in the Pacific Island countries.” International Journal of Social Economics. Vol. 35 No. 12, pp. 930-950.
P.W. Muriu (2023). Role Of Institutional Quality In Promoting Financial Inclusion. AERC Research Paper No. 384, African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi (2023).
R.I. McKinnon (1973).Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (1973).
R. La Porta, F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A. Shleifer, R. Vishny (2007), Legal Determinants of External Finance, 52 (3), pp. 1131-1150.
R. Levine, N (2005). Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes , J. Monetary Econ., 46 (1), pp. 31-77.
R. Levine, N. Loayza, T. Beck (2005). Financial intermediation and growth:, J. Monetary Econ., 55 (2), pp. 77-98.
Reuveny, Rafael and Quan Li. (2023). “Economic Openness, Democracy, and Income Inequality: An Empirical Analysis.” Comparative Political Studies. Vol. 36 No. 5, pp. 575
S. Adomako, A. Danso, J. Ofori Damoah (2022). The moderating influence of financial literacy on the relationship between access to finance and firm growth in Ghana, Ventur. Cap., 18 (1), pp. 43-61
S. Andrianova, B. Baltagi, P. Demetriades, D. Fielding (2023). Why do African banks lend so little?, Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat., 77 (3), pp. 339-359.
Sen, Amartya. (1998). “Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure.” The Economic Journal.” Vol. 108 No. 446, pp. 1-25.
S. Dahiya, M. Kumar (2020). The linkage between financial inclusion and economic growth: an empirical study of the emerging Indian economy, Vision, 24 (2), pp. 184-193.
T. Eldomiaty, R. Hammam, R. El Bakry (2021). Institutional determinants of financial inclusion: evidence from world economies, Int. J. Dev. Issues, 19 (2), pp. 217-228.
T.J. Abrahamsen, L.K. Hansen (2021). A cure for variance inflation in high dimensional kernel principal component analysis, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 12 (58) , pp. 2027-2044.
Z.A. Karim, R. Nizam, S.H. Law, M.K. Hassan (2021). Does financial inclusiveness affect economic growth? New evidence using a dynamic panel threshold regression, Finance Res. Lett., 46 (11), Article 102364.
