تأثیر درآمدهای نفتی بر بار نظامی کشورهای نفت‌خیز منطقه خاورمیانه
محورهای موضوعی : دو فصلنامه علمی - تخصصی اقتصاد توسعه و برنامه ریزی
1 - دانشجوی دکترا اقتصاد بخش دولتی،گروه اقتصاد وعلوم اداری،دانشگاه لرستان،ایران
کلید واژه: درآمدهای نفتی, گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM), بار نظامی, کشورهای نفتی خاورمیانه,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف اصلی این مقاله، بررسی تأثیر درآمدهای نفتی بر هزینه‌های نظامی 9 کشور نفت‌خیز منطقه خاورمیانه طی سال‌های 2018-1995 می‌باشد. به این منظور یک مدل عمومی مخارج نظامی برای این کشورها طراحی و به‌منظور برآورد آن از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) در قالب داده‌های ترکیبی پویا استفاده شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل نشان می‌دهد که درآمدهای نفتی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر هزینه‌های نظامی کشورهای مورد مطالعه داشته است. به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک‌درصدی در سهم درآمدهای نفتی از GDP، نسبت هزینه‌های نظامی به GDP (بار نظامی) در این کشورها حدود 16/0 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. بر این اساس می‌توان گفت که درآمدهای نفتی، نقش مهم و بسزایی در تأمین هزینه‌های نظامی و بالتبع امنیت کشورهای نفت‌خیز منطقه خاورمیانه دارد.
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil revenues on the military expenditures in nine oil-rich countries of Middle East during the years 1995-2018. For this purpose, a general model of military expenditures designed for these countries and to estimate it the generalized method of moments (GMM) is used in the form of dynamic panel data. The results of the model estimation show that the oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on the military expenditures in the studied countries. So that with an increase of 1 percent in the share of oil revenues to GDP, the ratio of military spending to GDP (military time) increased in this country about 0.16 percent. On this basis, it can be said that the oil plays a significant role in providing military expenditure and security in the oil-rich countries of Middle East
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