Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province)
محورهای موضوعی : Mathematical Optimization
Ramin Sadeghian
1
(
Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Industrial Engineering Faculty,
Tehran, Iran
)
کلید واژه: forecasting, Semi-Markov model, Earthquake occurrence, Transition matrix,
چکیده مقاله :
The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. In our work, we divided the province of Tehran into six regions and grouped the earthquakes regarding their magnitude into three classes. Using a semi-Markov model, it proceeds to predict the likelihood of the time and place of occurrence of earthquakes in the province.
