Risk Assessment of Bridge Construction Project through cost management phases

محورهای موضوعی : Risk Assessment

Abdulelah Ali ¹ , Bader Al-Ablani ² , Marwa Mekky ³ , Noura Al-Ghimlas ⁴ , Mohd Alam ⁵

1 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
2 - Mechanical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt
3 - Department of Mechanical Design and Production Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
4 - Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Systems, College of Business Administration, Kuwait University, Kuwait
5 - Department of Mechanical Engineering, Vivekananda Global University, Jaipur, Rajasthan

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/11/18 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/04/27 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/12/11

کلید واژه: Expected monetary value (EMV), uncertainty (C, Q, K) description, contribution value (CV),

چکیده مقاله :

Risk assessment is an important factor in project cost management. This study addresses the risks associated with a 900 meter long bridge construction project. The risk of a bridge construction project is assessed to limit and quantify the impact on the project. The impact of various risks was investigated to express the impact on the total project contract value at the estimation stage. A project risk analysis is introduced to assess the percentage of risk attributed to the total cost. After assessing the impact of risks on cost using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), a new approach of including uncertainties on risk analyses, using description (C, Q, K), is discussed and its advantages and shortcomings are highlighted. Risk is then assessed at several stages of project execution during the budgeting phase, and risk-based project value (RPV) is used to assess the value of the project at each stage. RPV usually increases as the project progresses towards its goals. Due to this property, the RPV of the entire project can be categorized into the contribution value (CV) of each activity. The CV of an activity is defined as the increase in RPV after each activity completes successfully. The results highlight the positive impact of successfully completing the activities associated with the highest risk. In addition, practical solutions for risk assessment and analysis of bridge construction projects are provided for use by bridge construction contractors, project managers and project management engineers.

منابع و مأخذ:

[1] H. Etemadinia and M. Tavakolan, “Fuzzy weighted interpretive
structural modeling: A new method for risks path identification
of the infrastructure projects,” in In Construction Research
Congress, Reston, VA, 2016. DOI:
10.1061/9780784479827.283

 

[2] J. Wang and H. Yuan, “System dynamics approach for
investigating he risk effects on schedule delay in infrastructure
projects,” J. Manage.Eng., vol. 33, no. 1, p. 04016029, 2017.
DOI: 10.1061/%28ASCE%29ME.1943-5479.0000472

 

[3] K. K. Chitkara, Construction Project Management. Planning,
Scheduling and Controlling, New Delhi: Tata McGraw-Hill
Publishing Company Limited, 2004.

 

[4] S. M. Trost and G. D. Oberlender, “Predicting accuracy of early
cost estimates using factor analysis and multivariate
regression,” Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, vol. 129, no. 2, pp. 198-204, 2003. DOI:
10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364

 

[5] M. Asgari, A. Kheyroddin and H. Naderpour, “Evaluation of
project critical success factors for key construction players and
objectives,” Int. J. Eng., vol. 31, no. 2, p. 228–240, 2018. DOI:
10.5829/ije.2018.31.02b.06

 

[6] A. Naderpour, J. M. Sardroud, M. Mofid, Y. Xenidis and T. P.
Rostam, “Uncertainty management in time estimation of
construction projects: A systematic literature review and new
model development,” Sci. Iranica., vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 752-778,
2019. DOI: 10.24200/ SCI.2017.4605
[7] N. J. Smith, T. Merna and P. Jobling, Managing Risk in
Construction Projects, Wiley, 2014.
[8] T. Aven, “Risk assessment and risk management: Review of
recent advances on their foundation,” European Journal of
Operational Research, vol. 253, no. 1, p. 1–13, 2016. DOI:
10.1016/ j.ejor.2015.12.023
[9] T. Aven and B. S. Krohn, “A new perspective on how to
understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen,”
Reliability Engineering and System Safety , vol. 121, pp. 1-10,
2014. DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.005
[10] J. R. Schuyler, Risk and decision analysis in projects,
Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, 2001.
[11] V. M. R. Tummala and J. F. Burchett, “Applying a risk
management process (RMP) to manage cost risk for an EHV
transmission line project,” International Journal of Project
Management, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 223-235, 1999. DOI:
10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00038-6
[12] A. S. Akintoye and M. J. MacLeod, “Risk analysis and
management in construction,” Int. J. Project Manage., vol. 15,
no. 1, p. 31–38, 1997. DOI: 10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00035-X
[13] R. C. Williams, J. A. Walker and A. J. Dorofee, “Putting risk
management into practice,” IEEE Software, vol. 14, no. 3, pp.
75-82, 1997. DOI: 10.1109/52.589240
[14] Y. Xia, Z. Xiong, X. Dong and H. Lu, “Risk assessment and
decision making under uncertainty in tunnel and underground
engineering,” Entropy, vol. 19, p. 549, 2017. DOI:
10.3390/e19100549
[15] R. M. Choudhry , M. A. Aslam, J. W. Hinze and F. M. Arain,
“Cost and schedule risk analysis of bridge construction in
Pakistan: Establishing risk guidelines,” J. Constr. Eng.
Manage., vol. 140, no. 7, p. 04014020, 2014. DOI:
10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000857
[16] E. Gajewska and M. Ropel, “Risk Management Practices in a
Construction Projecta case study,” Göteborg, Sweden, 2011.
http://publications.lib.chalmers.se/records/fulltext/144253.pdf
[17] E. S. Hong, I. M. Lee, H. S. Shin, S. W. Nam and J. S. Kong,
“Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis
technique: Application to the design of shield TBM,” Tunn.
Undergr. Space Technol., vol. 24, pp. 269-277, 2009. DOI:
10.1016/j.tust.2008.09.004
[18] J. K. Vaurio, “Ideas and developments in importance measures
and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis,”
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 95, pp. 99-107, 2010. DOI:
10.1016/j.ress.2009.08.006
[19] O. Špacková, J. Šejnoha and D. Straub, “Probabilistic
assessment of tunnel construction performance based on data,”
Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol., vol. 37, pp. 62-78, 2013. DOI:
10.1016/j.tust.2013.02.006
[20] S. K. Woo, K. J. Kim and T. H. Kim, “The Risk Factor
Analysis of Power Line Tunnel Using the AHP Method in
Construction Stage,” J. Korea Inst. Struct. Maint. Insp., vol. 17,
pp. 122-129, 2013. DOI: 10.11112/JKSMI.2013.17.5.122
[21] D. Wu, Q. Dai and X. Zhu, “Measuring the effect of project
risks based on Shapley value for project risk response,”
Procedia Computer Science, vol. 91, pp. 774-778, 2016. DOI:
10.1016/j.procs.2016.07.076
[22] T. Sato, “Risk-based project value – the definition and
applications to decision,” making, Procedia – Social and
Behavioural Sciences, vol. 119, pp. 152-161, 2014. DOI:
0.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.019
[23] R. L. Sousa and H. H. Einstein, “Risk analysis during tunnel
construction using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case
study,” Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol., vol. 27, pp. 86-100,
2012. DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2011.07.003
[24] A. Nieto-Morote and F. Ruz-Vila, “A fuzzy approach to
construction project risk assessment,” Int. J. Proj. Manag., vol.
29, pp. 220-231, 2011. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.02.002
[25] M.S. Kirkire, S.B. Rane and J.R. Jadhav, “Risk management in
medical product development process using traditional FMEA
and fuzzy linguistic approach: A case study,” Journal of
Industrial Engineering International., vol. 11, pp. 595-611,
2015. DOI: 10.1007/s40092-015-0113-y
[26] R. C. Walke and V. M. Topkar, “An Approach to risk
quantification in construction projects using EMV analysis,”
International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology,
vol. 3, no. 9, pp. 6847-6855, 2011. https://www.idc-
online.com/technical_references/pdfs/ civil_
engineering/An%20Approach.pdf
[27] K. Rezaie, M. S. Amalnik, A. Gereie and B. Ostadi, “Using
extended Monte Carlo simulation method for the improvement
of risk management: Consideration of relationships between
uncertainties,” Appl. Math. Comput., vol. 190, pp. 1492-1501,
2007. DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2007.02.038
[28] M.M. Khadem, S.Piya, and A. Shamsuzzoha, “Quantitative risk
management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman
oil and gas industry,” Journal of Industrial Engineering
International., vol. 14, pp. 637-654, 2018. DOI:
10.1007/s40092-017-0237-3

[29] R. S. Heralova, “Possibility of Using Value Engineering in
Highway Projects,” Procedia Engineering, vol. 164, pp. 362-
367, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.631
[30] T. R. Browning, “A Quantitative Framework for Managing
Project Value, Risk, and Opportunity,” IEEE Transactions on
Engineering Management , vol. 61, no. 4, pp. 583-598, 2014.
DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2014.2326986
[31] A. Terje and R. Ortwin, “On risk defined as an event where the
outcome is uncertain,” J. Risk Res., vol. 12, pp. 1-11, 2009.
DOI: 10.1080/13669870802488883
[32] C. L. Berner and R. Flage, “Creating risk management
strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from
assumption-based planning,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 167,
pp. 10-19, 2017. DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.009
[33] T. Aven, “Practical implications of the new risk perspectives,”
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 115, pp. 136-145, 2013. DOI:
10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.020
[34] J. Shortridge, T. Aven and S. Guikem, “Risk assessment under
deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison,” Reliability
Engineering and System Safety, vol. 159, pp. 12-23, 2017. DOI:
10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.017
[35] P. R. Rose, “Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum
Exploration Ventures,” Tulsa, 2001. DOI: 10.1306/Mth12792
[36] E. T. Brown, “Risk assessment and management in
underground rock engineering—An overview,” Journal of
Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, vol. 4, no. 3,
pp. 193-204, 2012. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1235.2012.00193
[37] S. S. Rao and L. Cao, “Optimum Design of Mechanical
Systems Involving Interval Parameters,” J. Mech. Des., vol.
124, pp. 465-472, 2002. DOI: 10.1115/1.1479691
[38] A. A. Alola, M. Tunay and V. Alola, “Analysis of Possibility
Theory for Reasoning under Uncertainty,” Int. J. Stat. Probab.,
vol. 2, pp. 171-180, 2013. DOI: 10.5539/ijsp.v2n2p12
[39] K. Zaman, S. Rangavajhala, M. P. Mcdonald and S.
Mahadevan, “A probabilistic approach for representation of
interval uncertainty,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., vol. 96, pp. 117-
130, 2011. DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.07.012
[40] H. C. Abou and A. Ashi, “Comparative analysis of design/build
and design/bid/build project delivery systems in Lebanon,”
Journal of Industrial Engineering International. vol. 15, pp.
147-152, 2019. DOI: 10.1007/s40092-019-00323-1