Providing a System Dynamic Model to Predict Construction Status in Iran Using Sustainable Development Indicators

محورهای موضوعی : Project Management

Morteza Golshanimanesh ¹ (Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran)
Hamidreza Abbasianjahromi ² (Department of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.)
Mohammad Ehsanifar ³ (Department of Industrial Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.)
S.Mohammad Mirhosseini ⁴ (Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/02/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/08/13 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/05/10

کلید واژه: System Dynamics, Sustainable Development, Construction, Causal Loops,

چکیده مقاله :

In this paper, a system dynamic model (SDM) has been created to predict the construction status in Iran using sustainable development indicators (SDI). The aim is to create a model based on system dynamics that would understand the complexities of the sustainable development system, as well as predict the values of variables and indicators used in the model for years to come. Since sustainable development involves various economic, social, and environmental aspects, the model has been formulated Using ten-year available data in these areas. After that, the output results of the model have been validated with reference patterns, and then, various scenarios have been created for sensitivity analysis. Finally, based on this model, the construction status in the Next years has become predictable. According to the results of this study, there is a direct and significant relationship between the amount of Construction and other indicators of sustainable development, such as the share of women working in the non-agricultural sector and the literacy rate of men aged 15-24.

منابع و مأخذ:

⎯ Balint, P. J., Stewart, R. E., Desai, A., & Walters, L. C. (2011). Managing Wicked Environmental Problems. In P. J. Balint, R. E.

- Stewart, A. Desai, & L. C. Walters (Eds.), Wicked Environmental Problems: Managing Uncertainty and Conflict (pp. 207-217). Washington, DC: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics.

⎯ Berchin, I. I., de Aguiar Dutra, A. R., & Guerra, J. B. S. O. d. A. (2021). How do higher education institutions promote sustainable development? A literature review. Sustainable Development, n/a(n/a). DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.2219

⎯ Blanc, D. (2015). Towards Integration at Last? The Sustainable Development Goals as a Network of Targets. Sustainable Development, 23. DOI: 10.1002/sd.1582

⎯ Burgan, B., & Sansom, M. (2006). Sustainable steel construction. Journal of Constructional Steel Research - J CONSTR STEEL RES, 62, 1178-1183. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcsr.2006.06.029

⎯ Charkhchi, R., toloi, a., & alborzi, m. (2019). Designing a Dynamic Model for Strategic Evaluation of Innovation with a Multiple Scenario Approach. SMR, 25(72), 13-40.

⎯ Coleman, P., Vallacher, R., Nowak, A., & Bui-Wrzosinska, L. (2007). Intractable Conflict as an AttractorA Dynamical Systems Approach to Conflict Escalation and Intractability. American Behavioral Scientist - AMER BEHAV SCI, 50, 1454-1475. DOI: 10.1177/0002764207302463

⎯ Coleman, P. T., Vallacher, R., Bartoli, A., Nowak, A., & BuiWrzosinska, L. (2011). Navigating the landscape of conflict: Applications of dynamical systems theory to addressing protracted conflict. The non-linearity of peace processes: Theory and practice of systemic conflict transformation, 39-56.
⎯ Corvellec, H., Hultman, J., Jerneck, A., Arvidsson, S., Ekroos, J., Wahlberg, N., & Luke, T. W. (2021). Resourcification: A nonessentialist theory of resources for sustainable development.
Sustainable Development, n/a(n/a). DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.2222
⎯ Dahia, Z., Bellaouar, A., & Dron, J.-P. (2021). A dynamic approach for maintenance evaluation and optimization of multistate systems. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 17(1), 1-13. DOI: 10.30495/jiei.2021.1926554.1110
⎯ Djuric, M., & Filipovic, J. (2015). Human and Social Capital Management Based on Complexity Paradigm: Implications for Various Stakeholders and Sustainable Development. Sustainable
Development, n/a-n/a. DOI: 10.1002/sd.1595
⎯ Dobson, A. (2007). Environmental Citizenship: Towards Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development, 15, 276-285. DOI: 10.1002/sd.344
⎯ Ebrahimi, M., & Pilevari, N. (2021). System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation to Analyze the Role of Solar Energy in Secure Access to Sustainability. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 17(1), 63-77. DOI: 10.30495/jiei.2021.1924887.1102
⎯ Edwards, B., & Hyett, P. (2005). The rough guide to sustainability: RIBA enterprises London.
⎯ Farnam Nematkhah, Sadigh Raissi & Vahidreza Ghezavati (2017) An integrated fuzzy DEMATEL-fuzzy ANP approach to nominate diagnostic method and measuring total predictive performance
score, Safety and Reliability, 37:1, 48- 72, DOI: 10.1080/09617353.2017.1411676
⎯ Fisher, J., & Rucki, K. (2016). Re-conceptualizing the Science of Sustainability: A Dynamical Systems Approach to Understanding the Nexus of Conflict, Development, and the Environment: ReConceptualizing the Science of Sustainability. Sustainable Development, 25. DOI: 10.1002/sd.1656
⎯ Fotis, P., & Polemis, M. (2018). Sustainable development, environmental policy, and renewable energy use: A dynamic panel data approach. Sustainable Development, 26(6), 726-740. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.1742
⎯ Gravelsins, A., Bazbauers, G., Blumberga, A., Blumberga, D., Bolwig, S., Klitkou, A., & Lund, P. D. (2018). Modeling energy production flexibility: system dynamics approach. Energy Procedia, 147, 503-509. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.060
⎯ Gu, C., Ye, X., Cao, Q., Guan, W., Peng, C., Wu, Y., & Zhai, W. (2020). System dynamics modeling of urbanization under energy constraints in China. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 9956. DOI:
10.1038/s41598-020-66125-3
⎯ Hall, M., & Purchase, D. (2006). Building or bodging? Attitudes to sustainability in UK public sector housing construction development. Sustainable Development, 14, 205-218. DOI: 10.1002/sd.265
⎯ Harati, S., Roghanian, E., Hafezalkotob, A., & Shojaie, A. A. (2021). A Location-Routing-Inventory Model for Perishable Items Using Fresher First and Older First Inventory Management Policies. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 17(1), 32-41. DOI: 10.30495/jiei.2021.1918748.1075
⎯ Hidayatno, A., Dhamayanti, R., & Destyanto, A. R. (2019). Model conceptualization for policy analysis in renewable energy development in Indonesia by using system dynamics. International Journal of Smart Grid and Clean Energy, 8(1), 54-58.
⎯ Hopwood, B., Mellor, M., & O'Brien, G. (2005). Sustainable Development: Mapping Different Approaches. Sustainable Development, 13, 38-52. DOI: 10.1002/sd.244
⎯ Industry, B. T. (2003). Sustainable building and construction: facts and figures. Ind Environ, 26(2-3), 5-8.
⎯ Iran, S. C. o. (2014). Millennium Development Goals (MDG) - 2014 Report. https://www.amar.org.ir/english/MDG-2014.
⎯ Jasiński, D., Meredith, J., & Kirwan, K. (2021). The sustainable development model for measuring and managing sustainability in the automotive sector. Sustainable Development, n/a(n/a). DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2207
⎯ Laimon, M., Mai, T., Goh, S., & Yusaf, T. (2020). Energy Sector Development: System Dynamics Analysis. Applied Sciences, 10(1), 134.
⎯ Lindley, D. V. (1990). Regression and correlation analysis Time series and statistics (pp. 237-243): Springer. ⎯ Lingard, H., Graham, P., & Smithers, G. (2000). Employee perceptions of the solid waste management system operating in a large Australian contracting organization: Implications for company policy implementation. Construction Management & Economics, 18, 383- 393. DOI: 10.1080/01446190050024806
⎯ Martis, M. S. (2006). Validation of simulation-based models: a theoretical outlook. The electronic journal of business research methods, 4(1), 39-46.
⎯ Mishra, P., Pandey, C. M., Singh, U., Gupta, A., Sahu, C., & Keshri, A. (2019). Descriptive statistics and normality tests for statistical data. Annals of cardiac anesthesia, 22(1), 67-72. DOI: 10.4103/Aca.ACA_157_18
⎯ Mutingi, M., Mbohwa, C., & Kommula, V. P. (2017). System dynamics approach to energy policy modeling and simulation. Energy Procedia, 141, 532-539. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.071
⎯ Nordås, R., & Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate Change and Conflict. Political Geography, 26, 627-638. DOI: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.06.003
⎯ Nowak, A., Bui-Wrzosinska, L., Vallacher, R., & Coleman, P. (2012). Sustainable Peace: A Dynamical Systems Perspective. Psychological Components of Sustainable Peace, 265-281. DOI: 10.1007/978-1- 4614-3555-6_14
⎯ Owens, S., & Cowell, R. (2002). Land and Limits: Interpreting Sustainability in the Planning Process. Land and Limits: Interpreting Sustainability in the Planning Process, Second Edition, 19. DOI: 10.1016/S0264-8377(02)00043-1
⎯ Owlia, M. S., Roshani, K., & Abooei, M. H. (2020). Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) of Intellectual Capital Components. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 16(4), 41-56. DOI: 10.30495/jiei.2020.678786
⎯ Ozawa, C. (2006). Science and intractable conflict. Conflict Resolution Quarterly, 24, 197-205. DOI: 10.1002/crq.168
⎯ Palmer, E. (2015). Introduction: The 2030 Agenda. Journal of Global Ethics, 11(3), 262-269. DOI: 10.1080/17449626.2015.1119928
⎯ Pearce, D. (2003). The Social and Economic Value of Construction: the construction industry’s contribution to sustainable development, CRISPR. London, available at.
⎯ Pearce, D. (2006). Is the construction sector sustainable?: Definitions and reflections. Building Research and Information - BUILDING RES INFORM, 34, 201-207. DOI: 10.1080/09613210600589910
⎯ Pourhassan, M.R., Raissi, S. and Apornak, A. (2021), "Modeling multi-state system reliability analysis in a power station under fatal and nonfatal shocks: a simulation approach", International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Vol. 38 No. 10, pp. 2080- 2094. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJQRM-07-2020-0244
⎯ Pradenas, L., Bravo, G., & Linfati, R. (2020). An optimization model for remanufacturing in a real sawmill. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 16(4), 32-40. DOI:
10.30495/jiei.2020.678785
⎯ Rassafi, A., Poorzahedy, H., & Vaziri, M. (2006). An alternative definition of sustainable development using stability and chaos theories. Sustainable Development, 14, 62-71. DOI: 10.1002/sd.268
⎯ Redclift, M. (2005). Sustainable Development (1987-2005) - An Oxymoron Comes of Age. Sustainable Development, 13, 212-227. DOI: 10.1002/sd.281
⎯ Rwelamila, P. D., Talukhaba, A. A., & Ngowi, A. B. (2000). Project procurement systems in the  attainment of sustainable construction. Sustainable Development, 8(1), 39-50.
⎯ Saavedra M, M. R., de O. Fontes, C. H., & M. Freires, F. G. (2018). Sustainable and renewable energy supply chain: A system dynamics overview. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82, 247-259. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.033
⎯ Sachs, J. D. (2012). From millennium development goals to sustainable development goals. The Lancet, 379(9832), 2206-2211.
⎯ Scheyvens, R., Banks, G., & Hughes, E. (2016). The Private Sector and the SDGs: The Need to Move Beyond ‘Business as Usual. Sustainable Development, 24(6), 371-382. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.1623
⎯ Sev, A. (2009). How Can the Construction Industry Contribute to Sustainable Development? A Conceptual Framework. Sustainable Development, 17, 161-173. DOI: 10.1002/sd.373
⎯ Shahabi, A., Raissi, S., Khalili-Damghani, K. et al. Designing a resilient skip-stop schedule in rapid rail transit using a simulationbased optimization methodology. Oper Res Int J 21, 1691–1721 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12351-019-00523-y
⎯ Shapiro, S., & Wilk, M. (1965). An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality. Biometrica, 52, 591. DOI: 10.1093/Biomet/52.3-4.591
⎯ Shapiro, S., Wilk, M., & Chen, H. (1968). A Comparative Study of Various Tests for Normality. Journal of The American Statistical Association - J AMER STATIST ASSN, 63, 1343-1372. DOI:
10.1080/01621459.1968.10480932
⎯ Shen, L. Y., & Tam, V. (2002). Implementation of environmental management in the Hong Kong construction industry. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 535-543. DOI: 10.1016/S0263- 7863(01)00054-0
⎯ Shen, L. Y., Tam, V., Chan, C. W. S., & Kong, S. Y. J. (2002). An examination of the waste management practice in the local construction site. Hong Kong Surveyors, 13, 39-48.
⎯ Sokame, B. M., Tonnang, H. E. Z., Subramanian, S., Bruce, A. Y., Dubois, T., Ekesi, S., & Calatayud, P.-A. (2021). A system dynamics model for pests and natural enemies interactions. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 1401. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-79553-y
⎯ Sorrell, S. (2003). Linking: Climate policy and the reform of the UK construction industry. Energy Policy, 31, 865-878. DOI: 10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00130-1
⎯ Springett, D. (2005). Editorial: Critical Perspectives on Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development, 13, 209-211. DOI: 10.1002/sd.279
⎯ Sy, C., Ching, P. M., San Juan, J. L., Bernardo, E., Miguel, A., Mayol, A. P., . . . Mutuc, J. E. (2021). Systems Dynamics Modeling of Pandemic Influenza for Strategic Policy Development: a SimulationBased Analysis of the COVID-19 Case. Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability. DOI: 10.1007/s41660-021-00156-9
⎯ Tangestani, A., feizi, k., Bamdad Soufi, J., Tangestani, M., & Khatami Firouzabadi, S. M. A. (2020). A Pattern for Sustainable Development from Perspective of Stakeholders Theory. Journal of Industrial Engineering, International, 16(4), 57-67. DOI: 10.30495/jiei.2020.678789
⎯ Torres, J. P., Kunc, M., & O'Brien, F. (2017). Supporting strategy using system dynamics. European Journal of Operational Research, 260(3), 1081-1094. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.01.018
⎯ Trollman, H., & Colwill, J. (2021). The imperative of embedding sustainability in business: A model for transformational sustainable development. Sustainable Development, n/a(n/a). DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.2188
⎯ Ugwu, O., Kumaraswamy, M. M., Wong, A., & Ng, S. T. (2006). Sustainability appraisal in infrastructure projects (SUSAIP): Part 1. Development of indicators and computational methods. Automation in Construction, 15, 239-251. DOI: 10.1016/j.autcon.2005.05.006
⎯ Ukko, J., Saunila, M., Nasiri, M., & Rantala, T. (2021). The importance of sustainability engagement in small businesses supplier collaboration. Sustainable Development, n/a(n/a). DOI:
https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.2224
⎯ Ventana Systems, I. (2015). Vensim® Personal Learning Edition (PLE). from https://vensim.com/vensim-personal-learning-edition/

⎯ Villaseñor, J., & González-Estrada, E. (2009). A Generalization of Shapiro–Wilk's Test for Multivariate Normality. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 38, 1870-1883. DOI:
10.1080/03610920802474465
⎯ Wced. (1987). Report of the world commission on environment and development: our common future (the Brundtland Report). Med. Confl. Surviv, 4.
⎯ Weerasinghe, A. S., & Ramachandra, T. (2020). Implications of sustainable features on life-cycle costs of green buildings. Sustainable Development, 28(5), 1136-1147. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/sd.2064
⎯ Williams, K., & Dair, C. (2007). A Framework of Sustainable Behaviours that can be Enabled through the Designs of Neighbourhood-Scale Development. Sustainable Development, 15, 160-173. DOI: 10.1002/sd.311
⎯ Yanarella, E. J., & Bartilow, H. (2000). Beyond environmental moralism and policy incrementalism in the global sustainability debate: Case studies and an alternative framework. Sustainable Development, 8(3), 123-134.