The Analysis of Iran Cotton Producers’ Risk Degree Based on Non-Linear Mean-Standard Deviation Model
محورهای موضوعی : Farm Managementابراهیم مرادی 1 , اسماء عبداللهی درمیان 2
1 - استادیار ،گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
2 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
کلید واژه: Iran, Risk, Cotton, cost product, Mean-Standard Deviation Model,
چکیده مقاله :
As regards decreasing cotton cultivation in Iran during these years, the degree of risk taken by a cotton cultivator in the agricultural part is important. The studies showed that the cotton crop yield during the past years did not have enough growth and the cotton cost product in the period of study cotton production costs, has increased. In this paper, the risk orientation of cotton cultivators was investigated; the researchers have done this employing a parametric approach and the Saha Mean-Standard Deviation Model. Statistical information and the cost product of provinces which produce cotton between 2000-2010 were collected. Econometric models with panel data were estimated. The results showed that cotton cultivator aversion, risk, and the trend increased when the income and the fluctuation cost product went up in each hector.
با توجه به کاهش سطح زیر کشت پنبه در ایران طی سال‌های اخیر، بررسی درجه ریسک‌پذیری پنبه‌کاران بخش زراعی کشور امری ضروری است. بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که عملکرد این محصول طی سال‌های گذشته، رشد کافی نداشته و هزینه تولید پنبه نیزافزایش داشته است. رشد قیمت پنبه متناسب با افزایش هزینه تولید این محصول در دوره مورد مطالعه نیست. در این پژوهش گرایش ریسکی پنبه‌کاران با استفاده از رهیافت پارامتری و مدل میانگین- انحراف معیار ساها بررسی شد. اطلاعات آماری و هزینه تولید استان‌های تولید‌کننده عمده پنبه، طی سال‌های 1389-1379 گردآوری شد. با توجه به ماهیت تابلویی داده‌ها مدل‌های اقتصادسنجی در قالب داده‌های تابلویی تصریح و تخمین زده شد. نتایج حاکی از ریسک گریز بودن پنبه‌کاران است وگرایش ریسک گریزی پنبه‌کاران با افزایش نوسانات قیمت محصول (ریسک قیمتی) و عملکرد در هکتار افزایش می‌یابد.
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