Effects of Climate Change on Food Expenditures of Rural Households in Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management
علیرضا کرباسی
1
(
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
)
چیمن صیادی
2
(
دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
)
کلید واژه: Panel Data, Precipitation, temperature, Food expenditure, Rural household,
چکیده مقاله :
This study examined the effects of climate change on food expenditure in rural household of Iran. Food expenditure is investigated as a function of average income of rural households, retail food price index and food expenditure for rural households, agricultural sown area and climate change. Here, the Stata11 software is used and data are from 26 provinces of the country for 10 years. Precipitation, temperature and relative humidity are considered as indicators for climate variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of average income of rural households, retail food prices, food expenditure of rural households with a lag and precipitation on the food expenditure of rural households. Agricultural sown area and relative humidity had no effect on the food expenditure of rural households and temperature had a significant and negative effect on the food expenditure of rural households. In the end, due to the impact that each of these variables explicitly have on food expenditure of rural households and implicitly on food security of rural households, suggestions for maintaining and improving food security of rural households is presented.
این پژوهش به بررسی تغییرات آب و هوا بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی در ایران می‌پردازد. هزینه موادغذایی خانوارهای روستایی ایران به عنوان تابعی از متوسط درآمد خانوارهای روستایی، شاخص قیمت خرده فروشی مواد غذایی، هزینه موادغذایی خانوارهای روستایی، سطح زیرکشت و آب و هوا با استفاده از روش پانل پویا و نرم‌افزار Stata11برای 26 استان کشور بررسی شده است. بارندگی، دما و رطوبت نسبی به عنوان شاخصهایی برای متغیر آب و هوا در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان‌دهنده تأثیر معنی‌دار و مثبت متوسط درآمد خانوارهای روستایی، شاخص قیمت خرده فروشی مواد غذایی، هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی با یک وقفه و بارندگی بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی است، سطح زیرکشت و رطوبت نسبی بر هزینه‌های مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی اثر نداشته است و دما اثر منفی و معناداری بر هزینه‌های مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی دارد. در پایان با توجه به تأثیری که هر کدام از متغیرهای گفته شده به طور صریح بر هزینه مواد غذایی خانوارهای روستایی و بطور ضمنی بر امنیت غذایی این خانوارها دارند پیشنهادهایی برای حفظ و همچنین بهبود امنیت غذایی در خانوارهای روستایی ارائه شده است.
1- Aghajani, M. (2012). Probable Phytophthora mildew disease of potatoes in Iran based on the weather conditions. Applied Plant Research, 1, 251-267.
2- Amiri, M., & Esmailian, S. (2010). Study climate change in Iran. Environment Journal, 10, 208-216.
3- Arellano, M., & Bond, S.(1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
4- Arellano, M., & Boyer, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.
5- Arnrdt, C.H. (2012). Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania. Review of Development Economics, 16, 378–393.
6- Balestra, P., & Nerlove., M. (1966). Pooling cross section and time series data in the estimation of a dynamic model: The demand for natural gas. Journal of Econometric Society, 34, 585- 612.
7- Breitung, J., & Das, S. (2008). Testing for unit roots in panels with a factor structure. Econometric Theory, 24(01), 88-108.
8- Carvalho, F. P. (2006). Agriculture, pesticides, food security and food safety. Environmental Science and Policy, 9, 685-692.
9- Ludi, E. (2009). Climate change, water and food security. Overseas Development Institute.
10- Food Agriculture Organization (2006) World Agriculture: Toward 2030/2050, Interim Report (12). ESA Working, Rome, FAO.
11- Food Agriculture Organization. (2002). The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2001 (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome).
12- GhambarAli, R., Papzan, A., & Afsharzade, N., (2012). Study farmer's views on climate change and strategies compatible. Rural Research, 3, 187-207.
13- Hashemi, H., Sepahvand, S., & Hashemi, K., (2013). A review of the impacts of climate change on water quality and sea. Health System Research, 9, 909-921.
14- Kang, y., Khan, SH., & Ma, Z. (2009). Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security. Progress in Natural Science, 19, 1665–1674.
15- Nellemann, C. (Ed.). (2009). The environmental food crisis: the environment's role in averting future food crises: a UNEP rapid response assessment. UNEP/Earthprint.
16- Nhemachena, C. (2014). Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and implications for food security in Zimbabwe. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 9, 1001-1007.
17- Nikuee, A., & Zibaee, M., (2012). Management water resources of Zayanderood river, and food security: Application of Integrated River catchment analysis. Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, 3, 183-196.
18- Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F., Goldberg, R., Mills, E., & Bloomfield, J., (2002). Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environmental Change, 12, 197–202.
19- Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F.N. (2007). Global food security under climate change. PNAS. 104, 19703-19708.
20- Seaman, J., Sawdon, G., Acidri, J., & Petty, C. (2014). The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries. Climate Risk Management, 3, 1-10
21- Shah, M., Fischer, G., & van Velthuizen, H. (2008). Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture. The Challenges of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
22- Shahnoushi Froushani, N., Dehghanian, S., Ghorbani, M., Danesh Mesgharan, M., & Ghilanpour, O. (2004). Factors affecting the supply of wheat in Khorasan Province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 47, 91-102.
23- Singh, R., Hales, S., deWet, N., Raj, R., Hearnden, M., & Weinstein, P. (2001). The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands. Environ Health Perspect, 109, 55–59.
24- Timmer, C.P. (2010). Reflections on food crises past, Food Policy. Food Policy, 35, 1–11.
25- Tubiello, F.N., & Fischer, G. (2007). Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080. Tech Forecasting Social Change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 1030–1056.
26- Vasilev, V. (2003). Variability of shigella flexneri serotypes during a period in Israel 2000-2001. Epidemiology and infection, 132, 51–56.
27- Wang, J., (2010). Food security, food prices and climate change in China: Dynamic panel data analysis. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 1, 321–324.
