Investigating the Effect of Economic and Non-economic Factors on Energy Demand in Iran's Agricultural Sector
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management
مریم ضیاآبادی
1
(استادیار دانشکده گردشگری، اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست-اقتصاد کشاورزی، مجتمع آموزش عالی بم، بم، ایران)
محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی
2
(استاد دانشکده کشاورزی، اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست-اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران)
کلید واژه: energy, Human Capital, agricultural sector, Activity Diversity, Markov Switching - Error Correction,
چکیده مقاله :
Energy demand and the factors affecting it have been growing in importance due to population growth, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and limited energy resources. In this regard, the agricultural sector of Iran shows an increase in the consumption of various energy carriers in this sector in recent years to increase production, employment, and food security. Given the significance of energy resources and environmental protection, the present study aims to investigate the impact of economic and non-economic factors on energy demand in Iran's agricultural sector over the period 1970-2017 using Markov switching-error correction model. The results indicate that the variable of agricultural production in both Markov regimes has a positive and significant effect on energy demand in this sector. The variable of the diversity of agricultural activities affects energy consumption in the agricultural sector positively. In addition, the impacts of human capital and trade liberalization in the agricultural sector on energy consumption in this sector are positive and significant. It is therefore suggested that to manage and optimize energy consumption, appropriate policies should be implemented in this sector to mitigate the environmental pollution and prevent the reduction of agricultural production.
به دنبال رشد جمعیت، افزایش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای و محدودیت منابع انرژی، تقاضای انرژی و عوامل موثر بر آن به موضوع مهمی تبدیل شده است. بررسی مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران نشان می‌دهد که طی سال‌های گذشته به منظور افزایش تولید، اشتغال و امنیت غذایی، مصرف انواع حامل‌های انرژی در این بخش افزایش یافته است. با توجه به اهمیت منابع انرژی و حفاظت محیط زیست، هدف این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر عوامل اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی بر تقاضای انرژی دربخش کشاورزی ایران طی دوره 1396-1349 با استفاده از روش مارکوف سوئیچینگ- تصحیح خطای برداری می‌باشد. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که متغیر تولید بخش کشاورزی در هر دو رژیم مارکوف، دارای تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر تقاضای انرژی در این بخش بوده است. متغیر تنوع فعالیت‌های کشاورزی تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی داشته است. همچنین تاثیر متغیرهای سرمایه انسانی و آزادسازی تجارت بخش کشاورزی، بر مصرف انرژی در این بخش نیز مثبت و معنادار بوده است. بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود برای کاهش آلودگی محیط زیست و همچنین جلوگیری از کاهش تولید بخش کشاورزی، سیاست‌های مناسب برای مدیریت و بهینه‌سازی مصرف انرژی در این بخش اتخاذ شود.
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