Factors Affecting Energy Consumption in the Agricultural Sector of Iran: The Application of ARDL-FUZZY
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and managementمریم ضیاء آبادی 1 , محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی 2
1 - استادیار دانشکده گردشگری، اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، مجتمع آموزش عالی بم، بم، ایران
2 - دانشیار اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
کلید واژه: Iran, agricultural sector, energy consumption, ARDL-FUZZY,
چکیده مقاله :
Given the unlimited needs of mankind and the limited resources available, human beings have always been thinking about how to use the available resources and facilities optimally. Energy plays an important role in economic activities and it is of great importance in agriculture. Over the past four decades, energy consumption in the agricultural sector has increased tremendously. In Iran, energy used to be provided with subsidies to various economic sectors like agriculture in order to support the production. In this study, the ARDL- FUZZY method is used to study the effect of various factors on energy consumption in Iran's agricultural sector. The data on energy consumption by the agricultural sector, the share of the agricultural sector in the economy, the ratio of capital to labor, energy intensity, and energy prices were collected for the period 1974-2015. The results indicate that the share of the agricultural sector has a positive and significant effect on energy consumption over the studied period. The capital/labor ratio has a positive effect on energy consumption. Energy intensity in the studied period eventually has an irregular trend and has a positive effect on energy consumption in this sector. Energy prices (fossil fuels and electricity) have a negative effect (a low level of significance) on energy consumption. Therefore, it is suggested to give more consideration to energy consumption and its underlying factors in policymaking due to the importance of energy and the problem of pollution.
با توجه به نیازها و خواسته های نامحدود بشر و محدودیت منابع، انسان همواره در اندیشه ی استفاده ی موثر و بهینه از امکانات و منابعی که در اختیار داشته، بوده است. انرژی به عنوان یکی از عوامل اصلی تولید دارای جایگاه مهمی در فعالیتهای اقتصادی و به عنوان یکی از مهمترین نهادههای مصرفی در بخش کشاورزی، از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. طی چهار دهه اخیر، مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران با نرخی فراتر از رشد تولید این بخش افزایش یافته است که یکی از مهمترین دلایل آن، پائین بودن قیمت انرژی و یارانهای بودن آن در بخش کشاورزی ایران است. در این مطالعه جهت بررسی عوامل موثر بر مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران از روش ARDL-FAZZY و دادههای سری زمانی 1353-1394 استفاده شده است. نتایج نشاندهنده آن است که متغیر سهم بخش کشاورزی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر مصرف انرژی در دوره مورد مطالعه داشته است. متغیر نسبت سرمایه به نیروی کار (سرمایه سرانه) تاثیر مثبت بر مصرف انرژی داشته است. شدت مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی از روند منظمی پیروی نکرده و اثر مثبت بر مصرف انرژی در این بخش داشته است. متغیر قیمت انرژی (سوختهای فسیلی و برق) تاثیر منفی (با سطح معناداری پائین) بر مصرف انرژی دارد. بنابراین پیشنهاد میشود که با توجه به اهمیت انرژی و مسئله آلودگی، مصرف انرژی و عوامل موثر برآن بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گیرد.
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