Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Peanut Production on the Basis of Increasing 2oC Temperature in Future Environmental Conditions of Guilan Province, Iran

محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management

Seyyed Ali Noorhosseini ¹ , Afshin Soltani ² , Hossein Ajamnoroozi ³

1 - Department of Agronomy, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran
2 - Agronomy Group, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3 - Department of Agronomy, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/05/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/06/27 تاریخ انتشار : 1397/03/11

کلید واژه: Climate Change, ArcGIS zoning, peanut production, temperature rise,

چکیده مقاله :

To evaluate the effect of climate change on peanut production in Northern Iran on the basis of 2oC rise in temperature, a study was conducted using the SSM-Peanut. The simulation was done based on the long-term data obtained from synoptic stations in Guilan including Anzali, Astara, Kiashahr (Astaneh Ashrafieh), Lahijan, Rasht (Agriculture station), Rasht (Airport station), Roudsar and Talesh. When model was run for each year and each scenario, the following parameters were recorded in the outputs: days to beginning bloom, days to beginning pod, days to beginning seed, days to harvest maturity, maximum leaf area index, accumulated crop dry matter, seed yield, and pod yield. Data analysis: data analysis was done using SPSS 18. Furthermore, from ArcGIS was used for zoning of Guilan in terms of peanut production in the current condition and after the climate change. To compare the difference between peanut growth and yield in the current condition and when the climate change happens, t-test and discriminant analysis were used. The results showed that there is a statistically significant difference in terms of all parameters between the current condition and after climate change 2oC rise in temperature) in Guilan Province. With the rise temperature, average peanut growth period in Guilan decreased from 142 days to 123 days. Generally, the average peanut yield changes in Guilan with 2-degree rise in temperature is 8.73 percent more than that in the current condition.

چکیده انگلیسی:

به منظور ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد و عملکرد بادام­زمینی بر مبنای دو درجه افزایش دما، تحقیقی با استفاده از مدل SSM-Peanut انجام شد. شبیه­سازی براساس اطلاعات بلندمدت ایستگاه­های هواشناسی استان گیلان (شامل انزلی، فرودگاه رشت، جهاد کشاورزی رشت، لاهیجان، آستارا، کیاشهر، تالش و رودسر) صورت گرفت. در انتها با اجرای مدل برای هر سال و تحت هر سناریو، روز تا گلدهی، روز تا شروع تشکیل غلاف، روز تا شروع تشکیل دانه، روز تا رسیدگی برداشت، شاخص سطح برگ، تجمع ماده خشک، عملکرد دانه و غلاف از خروجی مدل ثبت شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها با استفاده از نرم­افزار SPSS انجام شد. علاوه برآن پهنه­بندی استان گیلان از لحاظ تولید بادام­زمینی درشرایط فعلی و پس از تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از نرم­افزار ArcGIS صورت گرفت. برای مقایسه تفاوت بین رشد و عملکرد بادام­زمینی در شرایط فعلی با وقوع تغییرات اقلیمی از t-test و آنالیز تشخیصی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که تفاوت آماری معنی­داری از لحاظ تمامی صفات مورد بررسی درشرایط فعلی و پس از تغییر اقلیم (بر مبنای افزایش دما) در استان گیلان وجود داشت. با افزایش درجه حرارت میانگین طول دوره رشد بادام­زمینی در استان گیلان از 142 روز به 123 روز کاهش پیدا کرد. در عین حال عملکرد بادام­زمینی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم برمبنای افزایش دو درجه سانتیگراد دما برابر با 73/8 درصد بیشتر از شرایط کنونی بدست آمد.

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