The Effect of Raising Electricity Price on Welfare of the Household Sector in Rural Areas of Guilan Province, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and managementحسین صالحی 1 , Esfandiar Doshman Ziari 2 , Mohammad Sadegh Ziaei 3
1 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد رشته مدیریت دولتی، گرایش مالی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد الکترونیک
2 - عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران غرب.
3 - عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران غرب.
کلید واژه: residential electricity, deadweight loss (welfare loss), Almost Ideal Demand System, rural households of Guilan Province,
چکیده مقاله :
Present study investigates the effect of soaring residential electricity price on the welfare of rural individuals in Guilan Province by Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) in which the elasticity’s and welfare variations were calculated by Compensation Variations (CV) and Equivalent Variations (EV) for the time period of 1991-2012. It was shown that the absolute value of income and price elasticity of electricity was less than one unit. Low price elasticity of the demand shows the slight impact of price variations on the demand for electricity in the studied period, on the one hand, and the lack of an appropriate substitute for electricity in residential sector, on the other hand. The calculation of welfare variations and its comparison with the share of electricity in the paid subsidy shows that with 50% and 100% increase in residential electricity price, the cash paid to the households is less that the amount acquired. Accordingly, it can be argued that the direct effect of residential electricity price modification (increase) has not been compensated. In fact, the welfare loss of the households, due to more expensive electricity, is more than the acquired welfare. Yet, in a gradual increase scenario, the calculated CV is less than the payments to the families, and hence it is the only price policy that does not impose a loss on families and improves their welfare.
به منظور بررسی اثر افزایش قیمت برق در بخش خانگی بر رفاه خانوارهای روستایی استان گیلان با استفاده از سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایدهآل؛ کششها و تغییرات رفاهی ناشی از افزایش 50 درصدی و افزایش 100 درصدی قیمت برق خانگی و افزایش تدریجی قیمت برق خانگی در چهار سال (هر سال افزایش 25 درصدی) با استفاده از دو معیار تغییرات جبرانی و تغییرات معادل طی دوره زمانی 91-1370 محاسبه شدهاست. نتایج نشان میدهد قدر مطلق کشش درآمدی و قیمتی برق کوچکتر از واحد بودهاست. پایینبودن کشش قیمتی تقاضا از طرفی نشاندهنده تأثیر جزئی تغییرات قیمت بر روی تقاضای برق در دوره مورد بررسی بوده و از طرف دیگر بیانگر عدم وجود جانشین مناسب برای برق در بخش خانگی میباشد.محاسبات تغییرات رفاهی و مقایسهی آنها با سهم برق از یارانهی پرداختی، نشان میدهد که با افزایش 50 و 100 درصدی قیمت برق خانگی پول پرداختی به خانوار کمتر از میزان مبلغ بهدست آمدهاست و میتوان گفت که اثر مستقیم واقعیکردن قیمت برق خانگی (افزایش قیمت) جبران نشدهاست. در واقع میزان رفاهی که خانوار در اثر افزایش قیمت برق از دست دادهاست بیشتر از رفاهی است که بهدست آوردهاست و لذا خانوارها متضرر شدهاند. اما در مورد سناریوی افزایش تدریجی قیمت، مبلغ CV بهدستآمده کمتر از میزان دریافتی خانوار بوده و به این دلیل در واقع تنها با اعمال این سیاست قیمتی است که خانوار متضرر نشده و رفاه آن افزایش یافتهاست.
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