warning

Open Access Article

1 - A frequency-based parameter for rapid estimation of magnitude
Sanam Atefi Reza Heidari Noorbakhsh Mirzaei Hamid Reza Siahkoohi

10.1007/s40094-018-0273-4

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2 - Introducing an Early Warning System for High Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Markov Switching GARCH Approach
Younes Nademi Esmaeil Abounoori Zahra Elmi

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new model to predict the high volatility of Tehran Stock Exchange. For do it, a Markov switching GARCH models was modeled. With Estimating this model, the transition probability matrix of two states of high and low volatility, wa More

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new model to predict the high volatility of Tehran Stock Exchange. For do it, a Markov switching GARCH models was modeled. With Estimating this model, the transition probability matrix of two states of high and low volatility, was calculated. Using this matrix, we can forecast the probability of market fluctuations in the each period ahead and we can obtain a suitable model for forecasting high volatility. According to the model selection criteria consist of AIC and BIC, the Markov regime switching GARCH model with GED distribution is the best model for forecasting volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange. Based on this model, in this paper, an Early Warning System has been introduced in Tehran Stock Exchange. This model can be used for policy makers to prevent the occurrence of high volatility and to increase the security of investors in Tehran Stock Exchange. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - The Designing Early Warning System of Financial Crisis Outbreak in Tehran Stock Exchange by Logit & Probit Model
alireza gholizadeh Mir Feiz Fallah Shams Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi

Encountering with financial crises of supervision and predicting such these events which are necessary to decrease their negative effects on finanicial and economical markets. The current paper is aimed to review the designing the early warning system of financial crisi More

Encountering with financial crises of supervision and predicting such these events which are necessary to decrease their negative effects on finanicial and economical markets. The current paper is aimed to review the designing the early warning system of financial crisis outbreak in Tehran stock Exchange. Due to this purpose, it’s used the weekly datas during the years from 1997 to 2019 (1121 weeks). The mean of crises in this present papper is the falling more than 15% of price index (TEPIX) toward last three months. Hence, it’s been used the dummy variable for operating the dependent variable. It’s been used the residual of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for measuring the shocks caused by the price of stocks, exchange rate, price of oil and gold. The result is modeled by Logit & Probit model and showed that probability of the crisis outbreak is increased by decreasing the stock price in past period as well as the outbreaking of crisis in past period after reviewing and analyzing the data. While the decreasing of exchange rate, increasing of the gold price, and decreasing of oil price don’t affect on crisis outbreak in current periods as meaningfully. Based on weekly data, 44 crisis has occurred which both models have predicted 36 crisis. The power of crisis predicting is 82% and the power of predicting for total model is about 99%. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Analyzing financial stability with emphasis on banking sector in Iran: An early warning system approach
ژاله زارعی اکبر کمیجانی

In the literature, the financial stability is defined as a condition that systematic crises do not threaten the stability of the macroeconomy. Financial instability and its great shock on real output in many countries faced with economic crisis have demonstrated the nee More

In the literature, the financial stability is defined as a condition that systematic crises do not threaten the stability of the macroeconomy. Financial instability and its great shock on real output in many countries faced with economic crisis have demonstrated the need and importance of developing models for prediction and prevention of crises for economic planners  and make them able to investigate the causes of crisis and prevent its  recurrence as well. In this study, an early warning system of bank crisis  for Iran has been estimated by using probabilistic method(probit approach), for the 2002- 2011 The probable function designed in this paper shows that three variables, weight average of the real interest rate of banking deposit, weight average of the real interest rate of banking credit and the growth rate of property price, are the three predicators of probability of the banking crisis. The specified model in this study has signaled the banking crises and in 92 percent of the cases in which crises have happened the model has been able predicate it with probability of more than 40 percent and  Only, 7.14 percent has been missed and 9.52 percent has signaled wrongly. Hence, it confirms the relative predictive power of our model in crises period. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Insurance Insolvency
Ade Ibiwoye Olawale Ajibola Ashim Sogunro

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Open Access Article

6 - Contemplation on the ratio between the obligation to provide the information and no warning
Reyhaneh Hassanpour Asadullah Lotfi Marzieh Pilevar

10.30495/jijl.2021.17268

The need for today's society and the need for consumers to be informed of the basic commodity information have led the lawyers to propose a "commitment to provide information in the contract" theory. Based on this theory, the party that is aware of the contract is oblig More

The need for today's society and the need for consumers to be informed of the basic commodity information have led the lawyers to propose a "commitment to provide information in the contract" theory. Based on this theory, the party that is aware of the contract is obligated to provide the uninformed party with information about the subject of the contract. Certainly, part of this information is dedicated to the dangers and disadvantages of the correct and incorrect use of the goods; therefore, silence can give rise to the responsibility of the supplier or the manufacturer of the goods, and the provision of information can be taken away as a liability. This concept is akin to the abundance of altruism, since under this rule, any warning and inerrancy results in the elimination of responsibility. Therefore, the main question of the present research can be summarized as follows: the ways of sharing and differentiating the underlying principle and the obligation to provide information. We arrive at the results that there is a general and absolute relation between the inertia and the obligation to provide information. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Investigating the dominant domain (warning) in the law
Parviz Akbari Asghar Arabian

The irrational rule (alert) is derived from one of Ali's ('a) judgments, which is mentioned in a narration from Imam Sadiq (AS), "The Height of My Commander Aware," that is, the one who warns against the excusable guarantor. Accordingly, before giving a harmful act, the More

The irrational rule (alert) is derived from one of Ali's ('a) judgments, which is mentioned in a narration from Imam Sadiq (AS), "The Height of My Commander Aware," that is, the one who warns against the excusable guarantor. Accordingly, before giving a harmful act, the warner and awareness required to escape the danger, the warner will be exempted from liability if he or she does not care about the arrival of the damage. This jurisprudential rule, which is in fact one of the guilty parties, is proven by rational and convincing reasons that many scholars have investigated. But the basic thrust of this paper is to what extent is the scope and scope of this rule? By reviewing the jurisprudential and legal writings and legal and analytical and descriptive methods and using library tools in order to reveal this scope, we will review the scope of the application of this rule in a variety of domestic and foreign domestic and international obligations. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - Bases and Conditions of Disclaimer in Rule of Warning
Parviz Akbari Asghar Arabian

On the basis of the provisions of the warning, anyone before giving up any harmful work should give the persons at risk, warnings and awareness to escape from the danger zone and prevent damage to them, in the event of neglecting the alert and receiving damage to He, th More

On the basis of the provisions of the warning, anyone before giving up any harmful work should give the persons at risk, warnings and awareness to escape from the danger zone and prevent damage to them, in the event of neglecting the alert and receiving damage to He, the Warner, will be exempt from civil and criminal liability. Certain exemptions, in accordance with the rule of warning, also require conditions such as the validity of the activity performed, the warning to the addressee, the effectiveness of the warning, and so on. In view of its highly sensitive and preventive work, this paper attempts to ignore the principles and conditions of the rule, irrespective of the sources and documentation of the rule, and ultimately, in the attempt to represent that, in the guiding principle, the non-responsibility of the Warner (the cause of the loss ) And, consequently, the imposition of a damages loss to the target audience is based on the disconnected citation relationship. In the Islamic Penal Code of 1392 and the judicial procedure, this achievement can be deduced. Manuscript profile

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9 - Uncertainty Evaluation due to TIGGE Global System Precipitation Data for Flood Forecasting
Soudabeh Behiyan Motlagh Afshin Honarbakhsh Asghar Azizian

10.30495/wsrcj.2023.71323.11345

Background and Aim: The occurrence of frequent floods in Iran necessitates a flood forecasting and warning system with a suitable lead time. The use of numerical rainfall forecasting models in flood forecasting and warning is one of the important measures taken by resea More

Background and Aim: The occurrence of frequent floods in Iran necessitates a flood forecasting and warning system with a suitable lead time. The use of numerical rainfall forecasting models in flood forecasting and warning is one of the important measures taken by researchers in most parts of the world. The TIGGE database includes mid-term precipitation forecasts simulated by global forecast centers. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the efficiency and the degree of uncertainty caused by the rainfall forecasts of four numerical models of the TIGGE database (including CPTEC, ECCC, ECMWF, and KMA) for simulating floods with the HEC-HMS hydrological model.Methods: In this research, the precipitation data of seven meteorological stations were used to evaluate the uncertainty of discharge from TIGGE database precipitation prediction models in the Poldokhtar watershed. Also, three flood events on March 24, 2017, April 6, 2018, and April 15, 2018, were studied. At first, precipitation forecasts were extracted from four centers CPTEC, ECCC, ECMWF, and KMA. Due to the existence of systematic error in the forecasts, a bias correction was done on them, and to correct the bias, the Delta method was used. Processed and raw forecasts of four rainfall forecasting models were entered into the HEC-HMS model for flood forecasting, and in the next step, the flow uncertainty assessment of the HEC-HMS model was performed in all members of the four rainfall forecasting models. In this research, 5 factors P, R, S, T, and RD were used for uncertainty analysis.Results: The results indicate the significant superiority of the ECMWF model in predicting precipitation events. The use of all 4 rainfall sources led to an acceptable simulation of the flood peak flow in three different events. Also, the predicted peak discharge time had little difference from the observed data. According to the results of the uncertainty analysis, the ECMWF model was considered the best model based on P, R, S, T, and RD factors. The KMA model performed well in severe and very severe floods. The group prediction system of TIGGE models also had an acceptable performance in all events. Also, the hydrological-meteorological prediction model predicted the time of flood occurrence and the probability of occurrence well.Conclusion: The intended research investigates flood forecasting and warning in the Poldokhtar watershed using the meteorological-hydrological system, based on meteorological forecasts of the TIGGE database and flood simulation using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The final product of this system is probable discharge and flood forecast. The results reveal the success of the TIGGE database in flood forecasting. The ECMWF model excelled in predicting peak discharge. The upper and lower band calculation method was used to determine the uncertainty, which showed the uncertainty well. This system displayed the time of peak discharge well and with a small time delay, which indicates its good performance. The predicted rainfall from the four centers used in this study (ECMWF, ECCC, CPTEC, and KMA) have significant differences. To reduce these differences, we used a multi-model group forecasting system that had encouraging results. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

10 - Prediction of meteorological drought conditions in Iran using Markov chain model
Mehdi Ghamghami Javad Bazrafshan

Drought management is very important for optimal water resources application in arid and semi-arid regions. One strategy to manage drought is to predict drought conditions by probabilistic tools. In this study, total monthly precipitation records related to 33 More

Drought management is very important for optimal water resources application in arid and semi-arid regions. One strategy to manage drought is to predict drought conditions by probabilistic tools. In this study, total monthly precipitation records related to 33 synoptic stations of Iran during 1976-2005 were used to monitor and predict future drought conditions. Regarding the dry periods greater than six months in the arid regions of the country, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 6-month timescale was used for drought monitoring. The first-order Markov chain model was employed to predict drought condition up to 3-step ahead. This model was fitted on the SPI series at all stations of interest, and it was identified that can represent the probabilistic behavior of drought over Iran. The results obtained from drought prediction at 1, 2, and 3-step ahead over Iran showed that the occurrence of the severe drought (9 percent of stations) or normal conditions (87 percent of stations) is most probable in the future months, regardless of drought condition at current month. Also, drought monitoring based on aerial mean of monthly total precipitation time series over country showed that the trend of drought severity has been increasing in recent years. Manuscript profile

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11 - Enhancement of flood warning system performance using stochastic rainfall threshold curve
Ahmad Sharafati

Flood warning systems are the important and effective approaches to prevention or mitigation life and property loss in any flood event. All flood warning systems use one or more flood event indicator such as climatological signals. Rainfall threshold curve is one the co More

Flood warning systems are the important and effective approaches to prevention or mitigation life and property loss in any flood event. All flood warning systems use one or more flood event indicator such as climatological signals. Rainfall threshold curve is one the conventional flood events indicator in many flood warning systems. In this respect, observed or forecasted rainfall was compared with rainfall threshold to notify flood event. Application of some assumptions like constant rainfall patterns and rainfall-runoff model parameters such as loss and base flow is known as the main drawback of using conventional rainfall threshold curves. This study has considered uncertainties of rainfall-runoff model parameters and variables for extracting rainfall threshold curve, while solving shortcomings of the previous works. Results of this study demonstrated that extraction of the rainfall threshold curves by considering uncertainties of the mentioned variables and parameters represents a very higher accuracy respect to conventional rainfall threshold curves. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

12 - The Designing Early Warning System of Financial Crisis Outbreak in Tehran Stock Exchange by Decision Tree
Alireza Gholizadeh mirfeiz Fallahshams Mohammad Ali Afsharkazemi

The main purpose of this paper is to predict financial crisis in stock exchange market along with designing warning syetem by data analysis and then to present to financial policy makers for preventing the outbreak or decreasing the effects of crisis. Due to this purpos More

The main purpose of this paper is to predict financial crisis in stock exchange market along with designing warning syetem by data analysis and then to present to financial policy makers for preventing the outbreak or decreasing the effects of crisis. Due to this purpose, it’s used the weekly datas during the years from 10.03.1997 to 03.22.2019. The mean of crises in this present paper is the falling more than 15% of stock price rather to last three months. Hence, it’s been used the dummy variable for operating the dependent variable. It’s been used the residual of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for measuring the shocks caused by the index of stock price, exchange rate, price of oil and gold. Based on the results by the different data showed the financial crisis outbreak is the most important variable for predicting the crisis of Tehran stock exchange in weekly data in the last periods. Hence it’s claimed that falling the stock index is affected the value of index in the last periods more than external shock including shock of exchange rate as well as gold and oil. As it’s determined the detection accuracy of crisis is 81.82%, the same for all trees. It means that 36 crisises have been predicted and recognized from the 44 ocurred crisises during the mentioned periods (1121 weeks). Manuscript profile

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13 - Measuring systemic risk and the effect of fundamental variables on it in the country's banking system
leila barati Mirfaiz Falah Shams Farhad Ghafari Alireza Heidarzadeh Hanzaei

The purpose of this article was to measure systemic risk and the impact of fundamental variables on it in the country's banking system. In this regard, information from the period of 2010-2019 was used. In the first part, systemic risk indicators were estimated, then th More

The purpose of this article was to measure systemic risk and the impact of fundamental variables on it in the country's banking system. In this regard, information from the period of 2010-2019 was used. In the first part, systemic risk indicators were estimated, then the impact of the fundamental variables of the country's banking system and financial stability was evaluated. In order to estimate the model, the final expected deficit method (MES) and panel data were used. The systemic risk index in this research is obtained from the calculation of the degree of leverage (debt size), market size and expected final deficit (MES) in order to finally be able to model the factors affecting it.In this research, first of all, different types of systemic risk assessment models have been evaluated according to the forecast error, and then, with the better selected model, the relationship between systemic risk and the important ratios of the country's banking system has been evaluated. The results showed that there is a significant positive relationship between independent variables such as inflation rate, external debt, government debt, liquidity growth, non-current facility rate, debt ratio and the ratio of book value of equity to market value, and independent variables such as profitability There is a significant negative relationship between the total index of the stock exchange, the growth rate of GDP and return on assets with the systemic risk index among the country's banking system. Manuscript profile

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14 - Introducing Early Warning System for Solvency of Iranian Insurance Companies, Using Pane data method
Mahmoud Haghverdilou Kambiz Peykarjou gholam reza zomorodianS

Financial solvency is one of the essential components that illustrates financial status of a financial enterprise, at large, or an insurance company to be specific. In addition to solvency ratio, other metrics and indices are also early warning indicators of an upcoming More

Financial solvency is one of the essential components that illustrates financial status of a financial enterprise, at large, or an insurance company to be specific. In addition to solvency ratio, other metrics and indices are also early warning indicators of an upcoming crisis in insurance industry. Therefore, the main purpose of the present paper is to provide a model for an early warning system of solvency for insurance companies and Iranian insurance companies in particular. To this end, a number of indexes and ratios, as independent variables affecting solvency, are selected and classified as economic, corporate, and corporate governance, that distinct this article from other studies. In this respect, the empirical model of research was estimated by econometric method of panel data for 18 Iranian companies during 1387-1396. The results of the research depict that interest rates with one-period delay and the change in board of directors have the most and the least impact on Iranian insurers’ solvency, respectively. Also, due to its cube strength, the impact of loss ratio differs in various quantities. Moreover, all hypotheses that are based on meaningful impact of variables on financial solvency of Iranian insurers are verified; including macroeconomic (inflation rate with one delay), interest rate (with one delay), economic growth (with one delay), corporate variables (ratio of investments in risky assets to all assets), loss ratio, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, and corporate governance (percentage of major shareholder’s ownership and change in board of directors) along with international economic sanctions. Manuscript profile

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15 - The study of improving the warning system of the Covid-19 virus by using the sociological capacities of sports
Mohammad Hassan Ghazli Leila Jamshidian Mehrzad Moghdasi Moghdasi

Objective: The purpose of this research was to study the improvement of the Covid-19 virus warning system by using sports capacities. Methodology: The current research method was mixed. The statistical population of this research included all experts in the field of spo More

Objective: The purpose of this research was to study the improvement of the Covid-19 virus warning system by using sports capacities. Methodology: The current research method was mixed. The statistical population of this research included all experts in the field of sports from different groups, including physical education professors, managers of sports clubs, sports managers, athletes, trainers and managers of sports sites. The data collection tool included semi-structured interviews and a researcher-made questionnaire. In order to check the data of the present research, the sign test and structural equations were used. Results: The results of this research showed that the factors affecting the improvement of the Covid-19 warning system by using sports capacities include 4 general factors, including factors related to sports organizations, factors related to sports clubs, factors related to sports sites and factors related to It is for athletes and coaches. The results showed that the status of the warning system in sports in the field of sports organizations and sports clubs was unfavorable from the point of view of the research samples. The results also showed that the status of the warning system in sports in the field of sports sites and athletes and coaches was favorable. Conclusion: Among the factors identified, the factors related to sports organizations are the most important factors to improve the warning system regarding the Covid-19 virus by using sports capacities. Keywords: notification, warning, Covid-19, sports. Manuscript profile

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16 - Investigation of the Covid-19 virus warning system using sports capacities
Mohammad Hassan Ghazli Leila Jamshidian Mehrzad Moghdasi Moghdasi

The aim of this study was to investigate the warning system of Covid -19 virus using exercise capacity. The present research method was mixed. The statistical population of the present study included all sports experts from different groups, including professors of phys More

The aim of this study was to investigate the warning system of Covid -19 virus using exercise capacity. The present research method was mixed. The statistical population of the present study included all sports experts from different groups, including professors of physical education, managers of sports clubs, sports managers, athletes, coaches and managers of sports sites. The data collection tools included semi-structured interviews and a researcher-made questionnaire. Structural tests and structural equations were used to evaluate the data of the present study. The results of the present study showed that the factors affecting the improvement of the Covid -19 virus warning system by using sports capacities include 4 general factors including factors related to sports organizations, factors related to sports clubs, factors related to sports sites and Factors related to athletes and coaches. The results showed that the state of the alert system in sports in the sports organizations and sports clubs had an unfavorable situation from the perspective of research samples. The results also showed that the state of the sports alert system in the field of sports sites and athletes and coaches had a favorable situation. The results of the present study showed that among the identified factors, the factors related to sports organizations are the most important factor in improving the alert system for Covid -19 virus using sports capacities. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

17 - Early Warning Model for Solvency of Insurance Companies Using Machine Learning: Case Study of Iranian Insurance Companies
Saeed Naseri Khezerlou Atousa Goodarzi

Stakeholders of an organization avoid undesirable outcomes caused by ignoring the risks. Various models and tools can be used to predict future outcomes, aiming to avoid the undesirable ones. Early warning models are one of the approaches that could help them in doing s More

Stakeholders of an organization avoid undesirable outcomes caused by ignoring the risks. Various models and tools can be used to predict future outcomes, aiming to avoid the undesirable ones. Early warning models are one of the approaches that could help them in doing so. This study focuses on developing an early warning system using machine learning algorithms for predicting solvency in the insurance industry. This study analyses 23 financial ratios from Iranian general insurance companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2020. The model uses Decision Tree, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, Gradient Boosting Machine and XGBoost algorithms, with Boruta as a feature selection method. The dependent variable is the solvency margin ratio, and the other 22 ratios are the independent variables, which Boruta reduces to 7 variables. Firstly, the performance of the machine learning models on two datasets, one with 22 independent variables and one with 7, is compared based on RMSE values. The XGBoost algorithm performs the best on both data sets. Additionally, the study predicts the 2020 values for 19 insurance companies, performs stage classifications, and compares actual stages to predicted stages. In this analysis, Random Forest has the best estimate accuracy on both data sets, while Gradient Boosting Machine has the best estimate accuracy on the Boruta data set. Finally, the study compares the machine learning models' results in terms of capital adequacy classification, where Random Forest performs the best on both data sets, and Gradient Boosting Machine on the Boruta data set. Manuscript profile

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18 - Rapid moment magnitude estimation for large earthquakes in Iran using time integration of absolute ground accelerations
Hossein Sadeghi Behnam Rahimi Parvin Babaei

10.30495/ijes.2021.678956

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Open Access Article

19 - The role of an irregularity in the civil liability of producers
ronak sharifi reza nikkhah siamak afarzadeh

Constitutive provisions imply the removal of liability through warning. According to this rule, if the behavior of a dangerous action does not give sufficient and sufficient warnings to the endangered audience, it is not responsible for the harm caused by the action. In More

Constitutive provisions imply the removal of liability through warning. According to this rule, if the behavior of a dangerous action does not give sufficient and sufficient warnings to the endangered audience, it is not responsible for the harm caused by the action. In the context of the manufacturer's responsibility, the warning is considered to be a harmful substitute for the supply of goods and the collapse of the potential risks and disadvantages of the goods is a clear indication of the manner in which the cucumber can be traded to terminate the transaction and in addition to the customer any damage caused by This item can claim compensation and, on the other hand, if the seller or the manufacturer provides the necessary warning, he will not be held liable to the customer by virtue of a statutory liability. The amount of warnings required for consumer awareness according to the type of product offered is the standard behavior of the manufacturer of the same type of goods, according to the standards for each section. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

20 - Identification and Prediction of Banking Crisis in Iran
Z. Zarei A. Komijani

Abstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on gov More

Abstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on governmental supporting, the banking section in Iran has never encountered the phenomena such as bank run and bankruptcy, but it has also experienced banking crisis. Likewise, the assessment of probit model suggests that some indexes are leading banking crisis probability. These indicators include the variables of real exchange rate growth, the growth rate of credit endowed to private sector, real GDP, housing price, and real interest rate. Furthermore, the measures of expectation-prediction represent that the model developed has considerable potential to predict in sample banking crisis. Also, this model is unsuccessful in the prediction of the crisis in only 12 percent, but capable of predicting crisis in 77 percent of cases, where the crisis has occurred with probability of more than 40 percent. Manuscript profile

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21 - SPECIFYING the EARLY WARNING MODEL for INFLATION by USING MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH
Mohsen Mehrara seyed Mohamad Hosein Fatemi

Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an ave More

Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 28%) and low inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 12%), are identified and causes of regime transition have been surveyed. The results show the significant impact of liquidity growth and the output gap on inflation in both regimes. On the other hand, inflationary impact of liquidity growth in low inflation regime estimated less than the high inflation regime. The results of the Markov model indicate that liquidity growth and money market disequilibrium are the factors of transmission from low inflation to high inflation regime but these variables do not contain any significant implications for the transition from high inflation to low inflation regime. So according to the results, it can be concluded that the use of monetary expansionary policies in a low inflation regime can be more effective on the production than high inflation regime. Manuscript profile

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22 - Flood Management of Urban Areas Due to Possible Failure of the Dam (casestudy: Gheshlagh Dam and Sanandaj City)
سید محمود جزایری مقدس Bakhtiar Ahmadi

Although dams have the potential to achieve macro and national goals, they sometimes also provide the necessary ground for threats to occur. One of these threats is the risk of flooding due to the possible failure of dams for settlements located near them. In this study More

Although dams have the potential to achieve macro and national goals, they sometimes also provide the necessary ground for threats to occur. One of these threats is the risk of flooding due to the possible failure of dams for settlements located near them. In this study, the failure of Gheshlagh Dam, a dam located 12 km north of Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan Province, has been investigated. The failure of this dam has been analyzed using the HEC-RAS program and the results confirm that after the start of the failure of the dam, in the early stages of the river, the water level rises sharply and submerges the heights on both sides of the river. But the downstream topography of the dam is such that although much of the land around the river is submerged, urban areas are less vulnerable to flood risk. However, given the risk to life on the riverbank, the use of a flood warning system is suggested as an effective solution. Manuscript profile

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23 - Warning Instruction of Sa’di inBustanthrough Critical Discourse Analysis ofFairclough
Mehdi Norooz Farangis Farhood

The present study seeks to confirm the assumption that Sa’di is trying to implement the ideology of warning instruction. In the meantime, he sees audience so passive that ethics could be taught by warnings about the negative consequences of behaviors. To justify t More

The present study seeks to confirm the assumption that Sa’di is trying to implement the ideology of warning instruction. In the meantime, he sees audience so passive that ethics could be taught by warnings about the negative consequences of behaviors. To justify this, he uses some artistry and to offer a blend of his poem sand Quranic verses and Hadiths to increase the impact of his words. Considering the cultural space of the Iran, as well as historical and social issues of that day, he offers his trainings and advices by means of warning to the audiences; and against the passive mood of the people of his time, he preaches from an authority position with the support of religion and Cultural popularity. To prove this, by an approach of critical discourse analysis of Fairclough, we review the odes of Sa’di in Bustan. Discourse analysis is done in three levels of description, interpretation and explanation and a scrutiny of verbal choices of Sa’di and an explanation of the social conditions of that period is given Manuscript profile

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24 - The study of strengthening clusters of persuading and warning teachings in Khosrow and Shirin (With emphasis on the death cluster)
Mehdi Dehrami

Persian poets in order to represent their moral teachings as crucial, pervasive, and enforceable commands the y have to add various reinforces and performance guarantees to them. Therefore, the poets employed larger teachings to train small ones. As a result, we can ana More

Persian poets in order to represent their moral teachings as crucial, pervasive, and enforceable commands the y have to add various reinforces and performance guarantees to them. Therefore, the poets employed larger teachings to train small ones. As a result, we can analyze many teachings in the form of clusters instead of scattered and separate ones. The purpose of this paper is to study one of these clusters with emphasis on Khosrow and Shirin through descriptive exposition (content analysis). The position of this cluster in reinforcing of warning and persuading commands has been displayed. In order to do this, death has been selected as one of the main cluster which many secondary teachings included within its subset. Death is a reality that has interwoven many of warning teachings like self-praise, pride, laziness, boastful to one’s body strength etc. and persuading teaching like happy living, remembering God, retaining clean nature of human etc.…  in Khosrow and Shirin. Generally, many of virtues and villainies whether directly or indirectly and punishing after this acciodent have been strengthened with the thought of death    Manuscript profile

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25 - Is the Reward in Paradise and Retribution in Hell a Truth or a Metaphor? (With an approach to the views of Imam Khomeini)
Sediqah Emadi Astarabadi

One of the intrinsic tendencies of human beings is their disposition for pleasure and escape from suffering. The purpose of Almighty Truth in exalted verses on good tidings is to create such a pleasure in the addressees’ imagination so that they are encouraged to More

One of the intrinsic tendencies of human beings is their disposition for pleasure and escape from suffering. The purpose of Almighty Truth in exalted verses on good tidings is to create such a pleasure in the addressees’ imagination so that they are encouraged to comply with Divine Orders. By contrast, His purpose of sending the verses on warning is to warn the addresses to keep away from forbidden acts so that they are not deprived of ultimate perfection, which is the same closeness to God. What one reads in luminous Qur’anic verses about otherworldly reward and punishment is not comparable to worldly gifts and difficulties. Nevertheless, they disclose the reality of reward and punishment in the hereafter, which is why the pleasure and torment experienced in Paradise and hell, respectively, have been explained so deeply and at a level beyond the capabilities of the human imagination through eloquent verbal manifestations.In this study,the researcher tries to deal with the exotic ideas of Imam Khomeini, who has discussed differing types of heaven and hell, the truth of pleasure and suffering of the afterlife, and immortalitty  debate in details. Manuscript profile

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26 - Predicting systematic banking crisis in selected developed countries by multiple logit method
Mohammad Reza Asgarian Saeed Daei Karimzadeh Hossein Sharifi Renani

In this paper, in order to deal with systematic banking crises that lead to turmoil in various economic sectors, using the multiple logit method, the factors affecting the probability of banking crises in 27 selected developed countries during the period 1994-2018 were More

In this paper, in order to deal with systematic banking crises that lead to turmoil in various economic sectors, using the multiple logit method, the factors affecting the probability of banking crises in 27 selected developed countries during the period 1994-2018 were predicted. The results indicate the positive effect of inflation rate variables in the pre- and post-crisis period and the positive effect of the percentage of real interest rate changes in the post-crisis period on the probability of banking crisis. Economic growth rate and per capita production had a positive effect on the likelihood of a banking crisis in the pre-crisis period, but given the negative effect of these two variables in the post-crisis period, Granting bank loans to the private sector in the pre-crisis period had a negative effect on the likelihood of a banking crisis and doing it in the post-crisis period had a positive effect on it. Manuscript profile

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