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Open Access Article
1 - The effect of foreign exchange policies to reduce the current account deficit (with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2008)
Samira Najafi Estamal Seyed Shamseddin Hosseini Abbas memarnejad Farhad GhaffariBackground: Exchange rate fluctuations and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of invest MoreBackground: Exchange rate fluctuations and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of foreign exchange policies during the existence of a trade deficit in the financial crisis (crisis of 2008) on the total index of the stock exchange. Method: The present study was conducted using ARDL and VCEM approaches in terms of purpose, application and development. This study examines the relationship between exchange rates (as a control policy to reduce the current account deficit due to the 2008 crisis) and the overall index. Examines the Iranian Stock Exchange. To reduce the effect of the omitted potential variable, interest rates and external reserves are also included in this analysis. In this study, the self-return approach with distributive interrupt (Pesaran, 2001) has been used to investigate the long-run relationship between variables. Findings: Among the actions of governments in times of crises and deficits in the current account balance is the use of foreign exchange controls. Explaining the effects of the exchange rate due to the dependence of the stock market industries on the import of raw materials as well as the export of products on the overall index of the stock exchange is very important for policymakers and activists in this field. Conclusion: The results indicate that there is more compatibility between exchange rates and stock prices in critical periods than in quiet periods, in terms of integration in the long run and short-term causality. Also, the results of the implementation of foreign exchange policies, in order to improve the current account, confirm the J-curve. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Credit Risk Test Stress Model of the Banking Industry under Macroeconomic Scenarios
mohsen Ziaee Bidhendy Mehrzad Minooee Mirfaz Fallah shamsThe main reason for conducting the present study is to design and explain the credit crunch risk test model of the banking industry under macroeconomic scenarios. In addition to the use of documents and reports related to the banking industry, the panel data related to MoreThe main reason for conducting the present study is to design and explain the credit crunch risk test model of the banking industry under macroeconomic scenarios. In addition to the use of documents and reports related to the banking industry, the panel data related to the annual reports and datasets of the banking industry were used. In the present study, in order to perform econometric analyzes, E-Views software was used and Matlab artificial intelligence environment was used to design an intelligent system. Then, based on the GARCH method, the regression statistics related to the GARCH model for the fluctuations between the research objective function and GDP growth rate, interest rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate and per capita income growth rate are calculated equal to 0.927, which indicates very high predictive power. The econometric model of research is. One of the most important results of the present study is that according to the calculations performed, the bank's credit portfolio to reduce the probability of default is exactly 91 percent (the fifth level of system output is excellent). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Investigating the mechanism of systemic liquidity risk transmission of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran
Seyed Hamid Reza Sadat Shekarab Fraydoon Ohadi صیقلی seighaly Mirfaze Fallah ShamsThis research aims to investigate the mechanism of systemic liquidity risk transmission of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran. For this purpose, 486 listed companies in Tehran stock exchange and OTC from 2011 to 2022 were sampled and the companies were divided MoreThis research aims to investigate the mechanism of systemic liquidity risk transmission of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran. For this purpose, 486 listed companies in Tehran stock exchange and OTC from 2011 to 2022 were sampled and the companies were divided into ten deciles according to the Amihud illiquidity ratio, Then by using “Diebold & Yilmaz” approach which is based on forcast error variance decomposition in the framework of the generalized VAR model, spillover mechanism and systemic liquidity risk transmission among the formed decimals was investigatd.The preliminary results indicated the existence of spillover effect and systemic liquidity risk among all deciles, with difference intensity and weakness. In such a way that the fifth decile had the highest net transmission of liquidity risk spillover effects to other deciles, and the seventh & third deciles, respectively had the highest net effects of received spillover from other deciles. The general results of the total spillover index (TSI) indicated that risk transmission processes, change and increase after the occurrence of shocks and financial crises. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Modelling the Price bubble warning system and financial crisis in the stock market
Mahdieh Norozi Mohammadebrahim Mohammadporzarandi mehrzad minoueiThe purpose of this study is to design a warning system for price bubble and financial crisis in the Iranian stock market. In this study, the statistical information of the seasonal data of the period 1990-2019 and the MGARHC have been used to extract and identify the v MoreThe purpose of this study is to design a warning system for price bubble and financial crisis in the Iranian stock market. In this study, the statistical information of the seasonal data of the period 1990-2019 and the MGARHC have been used to extract and identify the variable of financial crisis and price bubble in the capital market. The results of this study showed that variables such as production, inflation rate, exchange rate, total stock market index, etc. have a significant impact on the occurrence of financial crisis and the possibility of price bubbles in financial markets. Based on the estimation, it can be stated that the effect of the shocks of the research variables on the occurrence of the price bubble in the stock market leads to an increase in the instability of the variables. This can be due to the dependence of the economic structure on its markets, and this can have heavy consequences due to a shock on the country's structure. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Investigate the relation of financial Distress, life cycle and restructuring Strategies of crisis companies in Tehran Stock Exchange
Abdollah Amiri Parviz Saeidi Farshid Pourshahabi Hossein Ali BahramzadehToday, corporate restructuring strategies are presented as a solution by chief executives officer and in order to exit the company from the crisis. In this regard, it is necessary to examine the impact of implementing these strategies is highlighted. The purpose of this MoreToday, corporate restructuring strategies are presented as a solution by chief executives officer and in order to exit the company from the crisis. In this regard, it is necessary to examine the impact of implementing these strategies is highlighted. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of implementation restructuring strategies in different stages of crisis life cycle companies. For this purpose, we used Z-score Toffler to select crisis companies. 406 years - Company were selected as samples. it was used to determine the stages of the company's life cycle from Dickinson's cash flow model. The Logit regression model was used to test the hypotheses. The results of the paper suggest that Toobin's Q variable only has a significant and negative relationship with the asset restructuring strategy, the total assets variable negatively correlated with the restructuring of management and financial restructuring and with the asset restructuring strategy. Financial leverage variables and institutional shareholders only have a meaningful and negative relationship with the financial restructuring strategy. The cash flow variable only has a positive and meaningful relation with the financial restructuring strategy. There was no relation between the firm's asset return variable and all three restructuring strategies. The growth stage companies use less than the asset - restructuring plan. Birth phases are less likely to be used than restructuring management structures than in other stages. In addition, the decline stage is used as compared to other stages of financial restructuring. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Investors' Overreaction in IRAN Stock Market to Global Financial Crisis News
فرشاد هیبتی وحید زندیهOver the past three decades, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been the foundation for financial asset pricing, and the leading hypothesis in the finance literature to explain and predict the behavior of investors. There are, however, two extensions to the EMH i MoreOver the past three decades, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been the foundation for financial asset pricing, and the leading hypothesis in the finance literature to explain and predict the behavior of investors. There are, however, two extensions to the EMH in the behavioral finance literature that investigate investor reaction when security prices do not adjust instantaneously, the Overreaction Hypothesis (OH) of DeBondt and Thaler (1985) and the Uncertain Information Hypothesis (UIH) of Brown, Harlow and Tinic (1988, 1993). In the other side, we know that Iran international trade volume is not expanded and direct taking impression of Iran security market to global financial recessions and expansions is in doubt. Therefore, observed investors' sentiment in Iran stock market to recent global financial crisis news has resulted in doubt on efficiency of this market, regardless of long or short term return for sensitive industries to this crisis. Thus, we felt need to recognize investors' sentiment to achieve behavioral finance patterns that would be consistent to Iran stock exchange and can be utilized to behavioral modeling of securities. We determined to evaluate and express behavior of investors in Iran stock market for the period 27 April 2008 to 25 April 2010, based on two hypotheses OH and UIH. Our findings show that shareholders' return is consistent with aforesaid two hypotheses and thereupon increase in market uncertainty in some securities, as well as investors' overreaction in some industries while issuance news of arrival and/or recovery global financial crisis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The Designing Early Warning System of Financial Crisis Outbreak in Tehran Stock Exchange by Logit & Probit Model
alireza gholizadeh Mir Feiz Fallah Shams Mohammad Ali Afshar KazemiEncountering with financial crises of supervision and predicting such these events which are necessary to decrease their negative effects on finanicial and economical markets. The current paper is aimed to review the designing the early warning system of financial crisi MoreEncountering with financial crises of supervision and predicting such these events which are necessary to decrease their negative effects on finanicial and economical markets. The current paper is aimed to review the designing the early warning system of financial crisis outbreak in Tehran stock Exchange. Due to this purpose, it’s used the weekly datas during the years from 1997 to 2019 (1121 weeks). The mean of crises in this present papper is the falling more than 15% of price index (TEPIX) toward last three months. Hence, it’s been used the dummy variable for operating the dependent variable. It’s been used the residual of auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for measuring the shocks caused by the price of stocks, exchange rate, price of oil and gold. The result is modeled by Logit & Probit model and showed that probability of the crisis outbreak is increased by decreasing the stock price in past period as well as the outbreaking of crisis in past period after reviewing and analyzing the data. While the decreasing of exchange rate, increasing of the gold price, and decreasing of oil price don’t affect on crisis outbreak in current periods as meaningfully. Based on weekly data, 44 crisis has occurred which both models have predicted 36 crisis. The power of crisis predicting is 82% and the power of predicting for total model is about 99%. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Global Recession and Its Impact on Telecommunication Industry: An Empirical Dissection
O. Gautam V. K. Singh R. Sharma -
Open Access Article
9 - The clarification of Relation between Accounting conservatism and bankruptcy of accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange (TSE) using models of bankruptcy prediction
saleh asadi Fraydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti sina kherdyar fadhel mohamadi nodeThe increasing competition of firms has limited the profit gains and increased the likelihood of a corporate financial crisis. One of the main concerns of investors is the recognition of profitable companies from financially corrupt companies through their financial cha MoreThe increasing competition of firms has limited the profit gains and increased the likelihood of a corporate financial crisis. One of the main concerns of investors is the recognition of profitable companies from financially corrupt companies through their financial characteristics. On the other hand, accounting conservatism has a long history in accounting and financial management. For a long time conservatism has penetrated accounting practices and this influence has been important. Therefore, it is necessary and necessary to study the relationship between accounting conservatism and corporate financial crisis. To test the hypotheses of the research, two different statistical methods such as logistic regression and mean equality test have been used. Sample size includes 48 companies with financial crisis and 57 profitable companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. The results show that accounting conservatism index has a meaningful and direct relationship with financial crisis of companies. There is also an inverse relationship between the corporate financial crisis with the size of the company and the profitability index as well as the direct relationship with the leverage ratio. The results show that sales growth has no effect on the financial crisis of companies and has the greatest impact on the probability of a financial crisis in companies, by the index of profitability or inefficiency of management in performance improvement. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - The Designing Early Warning System of Financial Crisis Outbreak in Tehran Stock Exchange by Decision Tree
Alireza Gholizadeh mirfeiz Fallahshams Mohammad Ali AfsharkazemiThe main purpose of this paper is to predict financial crisis in stock exchange market along with designing warning syetem by data analysis and then to present to financial policy makers for preventing the outbreak or decreasing the effects of crisis. Due to this purpos MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to predict financial crisis in stock exchange market along with designing warning syetem by data analysis and then to present to financial policy makers for preventing the outbreak or decreasing the effects of crisis. Due to this purpose, it’s used the weekly datas during the years from 10.03.1997 to 03.22.2019. The mean of crises in this present paper is the falling more than 15% of stock price rather to last three months. Hence, it’s been used the dummy variable for operating the dependent variable. It’s been used the residual of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for measuring the shocks caused by the index of stock price, exchange rate, price of oil and gold. Based on the results by the different data showed the financial crisis outbreak is the most important variable for predicting the crisis of Tehran stock exchange in weekly data in the last periods. Hence it’s claimed that falling the stock index is affected the value of index in the last periods more than external shock including shock of exchange rate as well as gold and oil. As it’s determined the detection accuracy of crisis is 81.82%, the same for all trees. It means that 36 crisises have been predicted and recognized from the 44 ocurred crisises during the mentioned periods (1121 weeks). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Providing a model of investment ethics for managers in the financial crisis with a qualitative approach
Ali Hazaveh mahdi madanchi zaj Ali Saeedi Shadi ShahverdianiThe present study aims to provide a model of managers' investment ethics in the financial crisis with a qualitative approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and has been done with an exploratory approach and a qualitative research design. Participants cons MoreThe present study aims to provide a model of managers' investment ethics in the financial crisis with a qualitative approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and has been done with an exploratory approach and a qualitative research design. Participants consisted of 9 academic experts and financial experts who were selected using a purposive method. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews that continued until theoretical saturation. The interviews were analyzed using the theme analysis method and using Maxiquida software. The results showed that 5 main categories, 31 sub-categories and 74 open codes were obtained from the interview. According to the findings, the model of investment ethics of managers in the financial crisis includes five main categories of ethical personality, ethical market, ethical norms, ethical motivations and ethical requirements in investing. It was also found that the category of the existence of rules (subcategory of ethical requirements) had the most repetition in interviews. Also, the categories of society values and social norms (sub-categories of moral norms) were the most frequent in the interviews. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - The role of earnings management in the effect of related party transactions, financial crisis and firm size on tax avoidance
Abdolrasoul Rahmanian Koushkaki Ayesheh MasoomiThe present study investigates the effect of transactions with related parties, financial crisis and company size on tax avoidance with emphasis on the mediating role of profit management. This research is practical in terms of its purpose, and from the point of view of MoreThe present study investigates the effect of transactions with related parties, financial crisis and company size on tax avoidance with emphasis on the mediating role of profit management. This research is practical in terms of its purpose, and from the point of view of correlation methodology, it is causal type (post-event). The statistical population of the research is the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, and using the systematic elimination sampling method, 133 companies were selected as the research sample in the 10-year period between 1391 and 1400. The results of the research show that transactions with related parties have an adverse effect on tax avoidance. However, profit management has a direct impact on tax avoidance. Also, transactions with related parties have a direct impact on profit management. Company size has a direct impact on earnings management. Transactions with related parties have an effect on tax avoidance with the mediation role of profit management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Interpretive structural modeling to improve the financial fragility of companies listed on the Iranian Stock Exchange with a screening approach
bahman kianirad Babak Jamshidinavid Mehrdad GhanbarIFinancial fragility is one of the terms that has recently been widely used in financial and accounting issues and its improvement has become one of the important issues and challenges in various organizations in the public and private sectors. This mixed (qualitative-qu MoreFinancial fragility is one of the terms that has recently been widely used in financial and accounting issues and its improvement has become one of the important issues and challenges in various organizations in the public and private sectors. This mixed (qualitative-quantitative) research has been conducted with the aim of presenting a model for promoting financial fragility with a screening approach in companies listed on the Iranian Stock Exchange. After interviewing 19 experts, 28 components of the model were identified in the qualitative section, but fuzzy Delphi method was used to rely on very important components and screen the identified components. Then, to achieve the model in the quantitative part, based on interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and self-interaction matrix was used to collect the required data. Findings The research presents a four-level model consisting of 9 components, of which the most effective component and the only independent component of the financial fragility improvement model of this research is the amount of economic stability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Modeling the financial behavior of momentum and random investors in crisis situations: Qualitative analysis based on grounded theory
Fatemeh Jafari Reza Aghajan Nashtaei Mohammadhasan GholizadehThe main purpose of this study is to provide a model to explain the financial behavior of momentum and random investors. The research was conducted qualitatively with grounded theory technique. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The statistical popu MoreThe main purpose of this study is to provide a model to explain the financial behavior of momentum and random investors. The research was conducted qualitatively with grounded theory technique. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The statistical population of the current research is active investors in the stock exchange in the period from 1399 to 1401. In this regard, 16 interviews with momentum investors and 8 interviews with random investors were conducted according to the research topic. Then, based on the systematic approach of Strauss and Corbin's theories, in three main steps of open coding, axial coding and selective coding, the financial behavior model of momentum and random investors was presented. The results of coding interviews with momentum investors have shown that the behavior of this group of investors has often been based on risk-return analysis and fundamental and technical analysis. Financial advisors are sometimes consulted, focusing on capital management and portfolio diversity. Although they sometimes engage in emotional behaviors, these behaviors are not predominant and they mostly try to behave rationally. While random investors, on the other hand, benefit less from these analyzes and consider only financial knowledge and investment literacy important. This group is more prone to emotional behaviors, especially mass behaviors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - The relationship between financing variables, the ratio of R & D to operating profit and corporate financial crisis
Reza Songhori Farzaneh HeidarpourThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financing variables, the ratio of research and development costs to operating profit and financial crisis in companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the research MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financing variables, the ratio of research and development costs to operating profit and financial crisis in companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population of the research is accepted by the companies in the 5 years period from 1391 to 1395 in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the research samples are from 181 companies. The research data were compiled through the new software and financial statements of the companies. In this research, multivariate linear regression model was used to test the hypotheses. The statistical method used in this paper is the panel data method. The results of the research indicate that the ratio of financial leverage to the ratio of R & D investment to operating profit is also affected by the ratio of R & D to operating profit on the criteria of the corporate financial crisis based on Springerty model, and the ratio of the cost of research and Operational development is effective on the financial crisis criteria of the company based on the Zimsky model, as well as the impact of the cost of research and development on the operating profit on the financial crisis criteria of the company based on the Altman model of 1983 and 1986 and the modified Kurdistan model was not approved. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - The Predictability Power of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm from Fiems’ Financial crisis
Nader Rezaei Maryam Javaheri -
Open Access Article
17 - Providing an intelligent credit risk management system of the bank based on the macroeconomic indicators in the country's stock exchange banks
Mohsen ziaee Bidhendy Mehrzad Minooee Mirfeiz Fallahshams -
Open Access Article
18 - Investigating the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Conservative Accounting and Transparency of Banking Information
Saeideh Ghasemi Ahmad Sarlak -
Open Access Article
19 - Identify the financial crisis of enterprises based on the Z – Score Toffler Index and investigate the impact of their life - cycle on risk and performance measures Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. (With emphasis on the 2005 Dickinson model
Abdollah Amiri parviz saeidi farshid pourshahabiThe financial crisis and failure of corporate managers always have been a problem for researchers to think of finding ways to predict and improve the status of firms. The risk phenomenon is one of the most important characteristics of decision formation in the field of MoreThe financial crisis and failure of corporate managers always have been a problem for researchers to think of finding ways to predict and improve the status of firms. The risk phenomenon is one of the most important characteristics of decision formation in the field of investment, financial markets and economic activities. The statistical population of the research is the listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2015. In this regard, the necessity of identifying the financial crisis and examining the effect of different variables on risk and performance measures are highlighted. In this research, first, the statistical sample companies were selected from the elimination method Z - Toffler was used to identify the crisis companies then, the separation of firms to stages were performed using the model of Dickinson cash flows (2005), followed by different periods of life cycle on risk and performance measures in each stage. In order to test the hypotheses, the combination of mixed data and Logit regression method has been used. The software used in this research is Eviews9. The results of the 406 Samples test show that the impact of different periods of life cycle on risk and performance measures has significant differences with one another. The effects of birth and decay periods are higher than those of other periods. Also, the increasing explanatory power of risk measures in different stages of life cycle are significantly different. The maximum explanatory power is related to the decline period Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Financial crisis and profit smoothing technique
Behrooz Ghorbani mehrdad ghanbari babak jamshidinavid Alireza MoradiThe financial crisis is a long-term process which affects many financial and operational aspects of companiesand the financial reporting system has played a major role in this process by employing different accounting methods.The purpose of this study is to analyze the MoreThe financial crisis is a long-term process which affects many financial and operational aspects of companiesand the financial reporting system has played a major role in this process by employing different accounting methods.The purpose of this study is to analyze the financial crisis by applying the method of smoothing the profit and considering the effects of the variables of the positive accounting theory.This research is a semi-experimental analytical researchWhich is applied in terms of purpose and is classified as descriptive research. Data were analyzed using a sample of 144 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange,during the period of 10 years (2007 to 2016), the data were combined and the multivariate regression model was analyzed.The results of the first to third hypotheses indicate thatthere is no significant relationship between the lack of liquidity, the inability to fulfill obligations and the failure of the operation with the profit smoothingand the reason for this is that the companies did not pay much attention to the use of smoothing in the context of the financial crisis.There is also a significant and inverse relationship between bankruptcy and profit smoothingwhich shows that companies facing bankruptcy by smoothing the profits seek to improve the conditions of bankruptcy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - The effect of corporation cash holdings and financial crisis on the tail risk spillovers
Effat Ahmadizadeh Habib Alah Amirbeyki LangaroudiThis research investigated the effect of cash holdings and financial crisis on the tail risk spillovers from financial sector companies to non-financial corporations listed in Tehran stock exchange. The purpose of this study is to examine the existing empirical evidence MoreThis research investigated the effect of cash holdings and financial crisis on the tail risk spillovers from financial sector companies to non-financial corporations listed in Tehran stock exchange. The purpose of this study is to examine the existing empirical evidence and determine the degree of conformity of the existing facts with the theoretical foundations of the relationship between tail risk spillovers and cash holdings by listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. The design of the study is descriptive-correlational and the data was collected via archival process. In this research, a sample of 136 companies from Tehran stock exchange companies was selected through a systematic sampling method. The research timeframe is 12 years from 2005 to 2016. Selective approach is used to test hypotheses by combining combined data and the integrated least squares regression (data panel) method has been used. The results of the study indicate a significant relationship between the cash holdings and the financial crisis over tail risk spillovers from financial sector companies to non-financial sector companies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Determination of the Effect of Corporate Governance on Financial Performance and Financial Distress in Firms Listed on Tehran Stock Exchange
Shahedeh Rezaei Amir Mohammad ZadehPurpose – This paper aims to empirically examine the impact of quality of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm performance and financial distress. For this purpose, Iran country was selected as sample. Design, methodology, approach – To assess the le MorePurpose – This paper aims to empirically examine the impact of quality of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm performance and financial distress. For this purpose, Iran country was selected as sample. Design, methodology, approach – To assess the level of CG practices at a given firm, the current study constructs corporate governance index (CGI) which consists of four dimensions: disclosure and transparency, composition of the board of directors, shareholders’ rights, and ownership and control structure. Based on a sample of 102 non-financial firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, from 2009 to 2015, the effects of CG on performance and financial distress are assessed. Tobin’s Q, ROA and ROE were used to assess corporate performance. At the same time, the Altman Z-score is used as a financial distress indicator, as it measures financial distress inversely. The bigger the Z-score, the smaller the risk of financial distress. Findings – The results showed that the quality of corporate governance has significant effect on ROA, ROE and Q-tobin index. Also, the results showed that the quality of corporate governance has no significant effect on the financial crisis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Investigating the effects of monetary policy on financial stability in 9 emerging economies of Asia
Alla Asgharzadeh Farhad Rahbar Mir-Hossein MousaviIn recent decades, the emergence and spread of financial crises on the economies of many countries has shown its direct and indirect effects. Therefore, in order to deal with this crisis, it is necessary to adopt a systematic policy in all countries that have been direc MoreIn recent decades, the emergence and spread of financial crises on the economies of many countries has shown its direct and indirect effects. Therefore, in order to deal with this crisis, it is necessary to adopt a systematic policy in all countries that have been directly or indirectly affected. Although these countries need to make financial adjustments to overcome the crisis, the severity of these adjustments depends on the specific economic conditions of the countries. In monetary policy, the central bank and financial systems play an important role in economic development. One example is the allocation of resources over time between different investments. The correct view of the financial system allows the economy to achieve a high level of growth, provided that other macroeconomic conditions are stable. This study, in the form of method innovation, has proposed an alternative method for measuring financial instability, which is based on factor analysis of various indicators.Accordingly,using statistical methods and econometric models, including the "dynamic panel model", the relationship between monetary policy and the index of financial instability in some emerging Asian countries during the period 2018-2007 has been evaluated. The results of this evaluation and pattern fit show a negative relationship between central bank monetary policy and financial instability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Effect of Shock Factors Affecting Financial Crises in Iran's Economy: Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters
ozra bayani teimur mohammadi javid bahrami Hossein TavakolianThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach MoreThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-critical variables that were effective on the financial crisis were identified. According to the results of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to fiscal policy; monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index. Based on the results of the Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters, it was also observed that the effect of selected variables on financial crises in Iran over the course of time has had different effects and in recent years the intensity of the effect of selected variables has been strengthened. One of the fundamental solutions is that policies that reduce inflation uncertainty, such as the fiscal and monetary discipline of the government and the central bank, reduce crisis expectations by stabilizing the currency and currency markets can reduce crisis uncertainty. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Globalization and the North-South Relations (Text in Persian)
Samad Kalantari Abdolrassuoul KhaliliGlobalization is a process which has taken place in the past decade and the world community is moving in that direction. This process is taking place in social، political، cultural and technological arena particularly it is expanding in the field of economy. Many thinke MoreGlobalization is a process which has taken place in the past decade and the world community is moving in that direction. This process is taking place in social، political، cultural and technological arena particularly it is expanding in the field of economy. Many thinkers believe that the first move for globalization started in nineteen century. There was considerable increase in the volume of trade during 1870 till 1914 and some called this period the "golden period of economic integration" but later development slowed down this process. These developments were opposition to free trade by national producers، First World War، the Great Recession of 1929-1934 and the tendency of the governments to have independent economic policies. The main aspect of globalization of economy is the process of integration and dependence in different countries. It is in this framework that the North-South relations are discussed. Two important factors of globalization which have direct relations with each other are world target market and the problem of nation-states. The international competition transcends the national boundaries and they become like glass walls which one can see through them. In other words the advances in information technology and communication lead to integration and similarity of pattern of behavior، consumption، way of life and culture among the people of the world. Globalization also includes and affects the relations among political، economic and social units and wide range of interaction among them. Thus the process of globalization of economy has directed the orientation of national economies towards world economy and the activities which were formulated within national framework now are decided on world basis according to need of world markets. It is in this process that the future and the fate of the North and the South countries are tied together. The present article in the light of theoretical framework of globalization and with emphasis on globalization of political economy identifies the opportunities، the deterrent factors and the threats to the growth and development of the world. A world which is called the North-South. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Identifying the factors of the financial crisis and presenting a model in the hotel industry in the critical conditions of Covid-19 (5 and 4 star hotels in Iran)
Fatemeh Dekamini Habibollah Javanmard Mohammad EhsanifarAbstract Background and Objective: The lack of a comprehensive classification of financial crisis management complications in the hotel industry causes financial losses during the crisis. The purpose of this research is to identify the factors of the financial crisis a MoreAbstract Background and Objective: The lack of a comprehensive classification of financial crisis management complications in the hotel industry causes financial losses during the crisis. The purpose of this research is to identify the factors of the financial crisis and provide a model in the hotel industry in the critical conditions of Covid-19. Research method: The research method was qualitative-quantitative. The tool for collecting information in the qualitative part was an in-depth interview with 18 managers and academic experts until theoretical saturation was reached. In a quantitative part, structural modeling was used and the statistical population included 4 and 5 star hotels in every province in the country, and 180 questionnaires were distributed. Interviews were coded with MAXQDA software. Findings: According to the findings of the research, 11 dimensions were obtained as financial crisis control dimensions, including 6 internal dimensions and 5 external dimensions, among which, income phase, facilitating conditions and support policies of The dimensions and components affecting the financial crisis of the hotel industry in the critical conditions of Covid-19 were known. Conclusion: The internal and external dimensions identified in the final model can help the hotel industry in times of crisis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - The effect of exchange rate fluctuations and oil prices on the stock index of companies during the corona conflict
mozhgan khodaverdi amirreza keyghobadihe spread of the virus (Quid 19) since January 2017 in Wuhan, China has caused many diseases and deaths in the world. The consequences of this virus have caused recession and other global problems so that even developed countries claim to have social health systems. Adv Morehe spread of the virus (Quid 19) since January 2017 in Wuhan, China has caused many diseases and deaths in the world. The consequences of this virus have caused recession and other global problems so that even developed countries claim to have social health systems. Advanced were in trouble. Questions or hypotheses including: a) The main questions of the research: Does the financial crisis of Corona have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies? Model sub-questions: Do currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Do oil crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Sub-hypotheses of the research: Currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected listed companies. Oil crises have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies. The statistical population is all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization that the research return time period is seven years between 1392 and 1399. The method used in the present study is descriptive-analytical, which in order to adapt economic theories to the realities of society, the relationships between variables are examined using statistics and after matching the theories, using From the inferential statistics and econometric method of the panel in Iveys software, the rejection or proof of the presented hypotheses is tested. All three models were accepted. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - The Role of Financial crises in the impact of Liquidity on Stock Returns: Empirical evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE)
Ehsan RajabiThe possibility of financial crises in the recent years is more than ever during the development of financial markets. In the last two decades, economic figures and financial statements show an unprecedented increase in corporate bankruptcies. The financial crisis can s MoreThe possibility of financial crises in the recent years is more than ever during the development of financial markets. In the last two decades, economic figures and financial statements show an unprecedented increase in corporate bankruptcies. The financial crisis can spread to financial markets and play role for impact of liquidity on stock. In this paper, we investigate the effect of liquidity on stock returns by using panel data method for 177 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2007-2020.The results indicate that liquidity during the global financial crisis does not have a significant effect on share returns. In bankrupt companies, share returns have also increased by liquidity has increased. In other words, by increasing the share liquidity of the bankrupt companies, share returns will be increased. All so, when economic growth (year 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019) is negative, liquidity affect returns pasetively. The development of new financial instruments such as investment funds will increase the liquidity of stocks and, of course, increase stock returns, which will ultimately improve the development of the capital market for attracting liquidity and micro-capital of society to this financial market. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Design a Model to Predict the Financial Crisis of the Iranian Capital market Using Smart Web Models
Maryam Roohisara masoud taherinia Hassan Zalaqi Ahmed SarlakAbstract As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this cri MoreAbstract As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this crisis. To achieve the research purpose, smart web models including grey wolf, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization and genetics algorithms were used. For this purpose, the data obtained from the questionnaire completed by 20 experts in the quality section and the data obtained from 173 companies from 2009 to 2019 listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were used. 38 indices from the categories of macroeconomic indicators, industry factors, corporate characteristics, political, cultural and behavioral events were identified using the review of the theoretical basics. Then, 25 indicators with high impact on the financial crisis were selected using expert opinion and MICMAC analysis. Then, by reviewing the financial statements of 173 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and using Rahavard Novin software, the data were collected from 25 selected indicators and their impact on the financial crisis was examined using gray wolf, ant colony, particle swarm and genetics algorithm to determine the final model of the research. It was found that in terms of efficiency, the ant colony optimization method is the most efficient and the gray wolf method is the least efficient in predicting the financial crisis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - بحران مالی جهانی و مدیریت سود در شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
مهدی عرب صالحی سمانه باری اسحاق بهشور -
Open Access Article
31 - The Survey of Operating Cash Flows’ Ability to Meature Firm Performance during Periods of Financial Crises with Emphasis on Disclosure Qualification
رضا صید خانی عطاالله محمدی ملقرنی پیمان امینیAbstractChoosing the right index to evaluate performance has always been one of the ‎most challenging topics in the field of capital market studies. Proving the ‎ability of accounting profits or its derivatives to evaluate corporate ‎performance and excellen MoreAbstractChoosing the right index to evaluate performance has always been one of the ‎most challenging topics in the field of capital market studies. Proving the ‎ability of accounting profits or its derivatives to evaluate corporate ‎performance and excellence in competing with other criteria is one of the ‎major concerns of accounting researchers and investors. While profits are a ‎major source of cash flow and wealth generation, the results of many studies ‎have shown that operating cash flows seem to be more important in valuations ‎apparently. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the ‎capability and superiority of operating cash flow (OCF) in performance ‎appraisal on earning per share (EPS). The statistical population of the present ‎study includes all non-financial corporations listed in Tehran Stock Exchange ‎. According to ‎Zmijewski’s bankruptcy model, the firms of ‎the sample are divided into two groups: safety (healthy) and financial ‎distressed companies and research’s time period is divided into two parts as ‎normal and crises period. Based on the selected sample and the use of multiple ‎regression tests, the research findings show that before disclosure quality ‎index, the EPS criterion outperforms the OCF criterion. However, in the ‎absence of disclosure quality, naturally due to uncertainty, performance ‎measurement based on operating cash flows becomes more important than the ‎EP Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Effect of Financial Health Indicators as Symbols of Bank Financial Crisis Using Logit Model Multivariate (A Case Study of Banks Accepted in Exchange)
alireza atefifar zadollah fathiThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of financial health indicators as indicators of banking financial crisis by applying multivariate logit models (case study of banks accepted in the stock exchange). For this purpose, among the banks accepted MoreThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of financial health indicators as indicators of banking financial crisis by applying multivariate logit models (case study of banks accepted in the stock exchange). For this purpose, among the banks accepted in the exchange, 9 banks were selected for sample. This research is a correlation research and the methodology of the present research is post-event type. A combination of two methods of field and library was used for collecting data. We used logistic regression to analyze the findings. We also used the fuzzy technique for the AHP technique to prioritize the main criteria. According to the findings of the research, according to the choice of the Enter method for data entry, based on the sig statistic, the 4 variable variables (LQ4, LQ1, CA1 and LQ2) were significant. Based on the results of the Logit model, only four financial ratios among the ratios of Kaml introduced in the correct ranking of the banks studied are based on Camel's combined value. Also, according to Delphi technique, the quality of management with the normal weight of 0.221 is the highest priority. The asset quality with a normal weight of 0.104 in the second priority, a confidence with a normal weight of 0.085 in the third priority, capital adequacy with a normal weight of 0.075 in the fourth priority and profitability with The normal weight of 0.070 was in the top priority. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Measuring the severity size and direction of fluctuations or exchange rate shocks in the money, capital and insurance markets
Sara Vahabzadeh Mir Feiz Fallah Amirreza Keyghobadi Mehdi MaadanchiIn the past years, financial markets have faced uncertainties such as financial crises, oil shocks, changes in currency policies and similar cases. The statistical population in the current research are financial intermediaries such as insurance, banks, active investmen MoreIn the past years, financial markets have faced uncertainties such as financial crises, oil shocks, changes in currency policies and similar cases. The statistical population in the current research are financial intermediaries such as insurance, banks, active investment companies (PGPIC) in the stock market on a daily basis in 1990-98. For the insurance market, by increasing one unit of its efficiency, the value at risk of the whole system decreases by 0.016. With the increase of one unit of its yield, the value at risk decreases by 0.051. With an increase of a unit or one percent of profit in the banking sector, the efficiency of the whole system increases by 0.0014. The results of estimating the value exposed to conditional differential risk indicate that the share of value exposed to conditional risk of capital is equal to 0.045, bank 0.026 and insurance 0.037, and the value exposed to conditional risk of capital and insurance sector is more and bank is less, and the share of value exposed to conditional risk of capital equals 0.045, bank 0.026 and insurance 0.037, which means the value exposed to conditional risk of capital and insurance sector is more and bank is less. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - Modelling of appropriate pattern in order to forecast systemic liquidity risk of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran, by using multivariate GARCH models and Markov switching approach
Seied Hamid Reza Sadat Shekarab Fereydon Ohadi mohsen Seighaly Mirfaze FallahThis research aims to model and present an appropriate pattern in order to forecast systemic liquidity risk of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran. For this purpose, 486 listed companies in Tehran stock exchange and OTC from 2011 to 2020 were sampled and then the MoreThis research aims to model and present an appropriate pattern in order to forecast systemic liquidity risk of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran. For this purpose, 486 listed companies in Tehran stock exchange and OTC from 2011 to 2020 were sampled and then the companies were divided into four groups (portfolios) according to combination of indicators and types of activites of companies. Then by using types of multivariate GARCH models and comparing them, finanlly the VAR(1)-DBEKK(1,2) was selected as an optimum pattern . The results of research showed significant relationships among of liquidity shocks and volatilities with all of subsections, and consequently the main hypothesis based on “presence of systemic liquidity risk of corporate stocks in capital market of Iran” was accepted. In a way that the portfolios of company stocks with a “low level of liquidity- industry section” and “low level of liquidity- financial section” respectively had maximum and minimum liquidity shocks transmission of effects on future returns of the other portfolios, as well as the portfolio with a “high level of liquidity- financial section” had maximum volatility persistence and liquidity risk transmission to other portfolios. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - A review of investment ethics with the approach of financial crises
Ali Hazaveh Mahdi Madanchi ZajPurpose: The purpose of this research is to create a model of ethical decision-making that applies to accountants and the accounting profession. In this research, an integrated pattern of five factors affecting ethical decision-making by accountants was identified, whic MorePurpose: The purpose of this research is to create a model of ethical decision-making that applies to accountants and the accounting profession. In this research, an integrated pattern of five factors affecting ethical decision-making by accountants was identified, which include professional codes of conduct, philosophical orientation, religious orientation, values derived from culture, and moral maturity.Research Methodology: The present study is a review study in which the articles indexed in scientific databases such as Academic Jihad Scientific Information Center, Marja Danesh, Noor specialized magazines database and financial analysis publication were made. Research texts from 1992 to the end of 2023 have been examined. In this study, the researchers searched and extracted the valid English articles from the valid electronic sources by using the determined keywords, and by examining the full texts of these articles, they described the obtained data in a classified manner.Findings: According to the findings of the research, most of the financial crises are caused by the non-observance of ethics in decision-making processes, and following ethical principles in decisions and professional behavior can prevent society from moving towards financial crises in the long term.Originality / Value: Based on the findings of the research, it was finally determined that the ethical requirements in investment is one of the categories of the model of ethics in investing in the financial crisis. The organization and development of the capital market depends on the regulation of the structure of the financial market in accordance with the macroeconomic characteristics and the coordinates of the companies active in the country's economy. Manuscript profile
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