List of Articles Autoregressive Conditional&#x0D

• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  1 - Estimating Conditional VaR Using Symmetric and Non-Symmetric Autoregressive Models in Old and Oil Markets
  Saeid Fallahpour Fatemeh Rezvani Mohammadreza Rahimi
  Price volatility on gold and oil market is the top news all the time. Global economy isaffected by those markets volatility. Because of the domestic investor tendency in goldmarket and feasibility of investing on oil by Energy Exchange in Iran, in this paper wefocus on More

  Price volatility on gold and oil market is the top news all the time. Global economy isaffected by those markets volatility. Because of the domestic investor tendency in goldmarket and feasibility of investing on oil by Energy Exchange in Iran, in this paper wefocus on the volatility of gold and oil return. The implemented method is one-day aheadout of sample forecast by the conditional value at risk.The goal of this paper is to answer which of the models; GARCH, ECHARCH, andTARCH is best at forecasting the CVaR for gold and oil return. We estimate the value byassuming normal and t-student distribution.The results show that the TGARH(1,1) model specifications are good option forforecasting the CVaR in oil market by t-student distribution Manuscript profile