پویایی‌های سیستم

Open Access Article

1 - Designing a Dynamic Model Based on Poverty and Deprivation Alleviation in Livelihood (Case study: Armed Forces Retirees)
Farshad Faezy Razi Nasrin Shamshiru Hadi Hematyan Mohamad Zargar

Today, poverty is considered from the most important problems in a country. This study dynamically models the poverty and deprivation alleviation in community livelihoods, with emphasis on armed forces retirees. The modeling of this study was performed using system dyna More

Today, poverty is considered from the most important problems in a country. This study dynamically models the poverty and deprivation alleviation in community livelihoods, with emphasis on armed forces retirees. The modeling of this study was performed using system dynamics, which is a computer simulation modeling technique. In this study, firstly, effective and impressive factors on poverty were identified and then analyzed by combining retirement empowerment policies. The results of the study on performing political scenarios and retiring decisions, such as the adoption of support services decisions, self-employment facilities, interest-free loans, sport services, consuming and educational services, show that the behaviors of the model variables tend to be in the direction of alleviating deprivation and poverty in society. In this regard, correct decision-making for retirees will improve empowerment, promote research and development, reduce demand for merchandise, increase entrepreneurship, improve wages and income, and further, reduce poverty. All analyzes are performed by Vensim software, which is the most comprehensive simulation software to improve the performance of actual systems. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - An analysiz on Yazd province tourism in 1404 by system dynamics
Seyed Habibollah Mirghafouri Mir Mohammad Asadi Mohammad saleh Mazidi

10.30495/jmfr.2021.19487

The national development comprehensive document has mentioned that Iran must at the end of seventh development program in 1404 achieve to 20 million foreign tourists, Among our touristic provinces, Yazd province have a glorious aspects of historical civilization of Iran More

The national development comprehensive document has mentioned that Iran must at the end of seventh development program in 1404 achieve to 20 million foreign tourists, Among our touristic provinces, Yazd province have a glorious aspects of historical civilization of Iran. So it is very important we study the current situation and future of tourism in this province. So this study is going to find a dynamic model to estimate foreign incoming tourist to Yazd in 1404 with current situation and checking the probable scenarios.this research is applied by pupose and qualitative study by methodology and descriptive analytic. At the beginning by tourism research literature and resources for determining the tourism situation of a region and interviews with 20 Yazd tourism experts, try to fine out the effective variables of Yazd such as security, transportation … In next step by variables quantities and their effects on each others, its causal loops diagram designed and the flow diagram ran in vensim software. The results shows by current tourism situation of Yazd continue till 1404, instead of at least 1.3 millions foreign tourists at most will achieve to 100,000 foreign tourists. By this result, another couple of variables`s situations in scenarios form researched and offered some suggestions such as focus on human resources training, effective and meaningful advertisement, reinforcement the private section … and also reliability and stability of model confirmed. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - Measuring effective components in trust and social participation for tax policy
Alireza Rostami Abass Toolooee eshlagi Reza Radfar

Todays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the vo More

Todays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the volatile and unpredictable oil income. This research aims, while briefly introducing the presented models and classifying them, effective factors in increasing tax revenues and evaluating public trust and participation in the field of taxation have been examined and identified with a meta-integration approach, and the main components of this model include legal factors, social factors, there are cultural factors, managerial factors, political factors and managerial factors. Then, in order to better understand the variables affecting this relationship and understand the existing dynamics, using the approach of system dynamics modeling and drawing causal-loop diagrams (CLD), a model for evaluating trust and public participation in the field of taxation is presented and finally simulated so It was done by Vensim software. The simulation results indicate the positive effect of economic factors on public trust and participation in the tax field, with the point that the effect of economic factors is greater than the simultaneous application of all components. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Measuring the Readiness of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises to Enter E-Commerce
Abbass Toloie Ashlaghi Reza Radfar Naghei Shoja Farshid Farokhizadeh

Given the growing importance of small and medium-sized enterprises and the role that e-readiness and e-commerce development have in reducing their costs and expanding their operations, evaluating e-readiness status for entering e-commerce field is important in SMEs. The More

Given the growing importance of small and medium-sized enterprises and the role that e-readiness and e-commerce development have in reducing their costs and expanding their operations, evaluating e-readiness status for entering e-commerce field is important in SMEs. Therefore, the design of e-readiness assessment models is appropriate to the internal and environmental conditions of organizations and communities with the aim of measuring their e-readiness level and without assessing the electronic readiness of the organization, the activity in the world of the impossible network or its barriers will be very high. In this paper, while introducing a brief overview of the proposed models for assessing e-readiness and their classification, the factors influencing the e-readiness of SMEs in order to enter the e-commerce field have been investigated and identified with a meta-integration approach. Then, in order to better understand the variables that affect this relationship and understand the existing dynamics, using a modeling of system dynamics approach and drawing causal loop diagrams (CLD), was introduced an e-readiness assessment model for SMEs to enter the e-commerce field and finally, simulation was carried out by Vensim software. The two major scenarios of increasing advertising and system quality were evaluated and analyzed as model levers. The simulation results indicate a positive impact of system quality and advertising on the e-readiness of firms, with the difference, the impact of system quality on e-readiness of firms is more than the impact of advertising on increasing e-readiness. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Optimization of supply chain delivery to customer and demand management using knowledge management: system dynamics approach
Elham Elmi Adel Azar Farhad Ghaffari

In global competition, a variety of products should be made available according to the customer's request, customer's demand for high quality and fast service, increasing the pressures that have not existed before; Consequently, companies for this global competition hav More

In global competition, a variety of products should be made available according to the customer's request, customer's demand for high quality and fast service, increasing the pressures that have not existed before; Consequently, companies for this global competition have to use knowledge management and are aware of the necessity of using knowledge in the organization. In this research, we are looking for a model to optimize the supply chain delivery to the customer using knowledge management in petrochemical products manufacturing company, and also due to the dynamic nature of knowledge management and the impact of its components on the supply chain, the system dynamic methodology has been used. More demand and ultimately leads to increased delivery of goods and greater customer satisfaction Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach
mohammad hadi damiri parviz saeedi Hosein Didehkhani ebrahim abbasi

Abstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchan More

Abstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchange rate price were predicted using the system dynamics from 2004 to 2022 , and the results were compared with the trend and real exchange rate of the exchange rate. The results show that the exchange rate trend over the 19-year period has always been with a slight upward slope, but during the years 2012 -2013 and 2018-2017 there was a sharp rise in price and slope that is exactly the same as the real exchange rate trend. Also, comparing the exchange rate data to the market price and the expected exchange rate until 2018 shows that this model has been able to accurately assess the trend and predict possible failures. Key word: Exchange rate, system dynamics, forecast, trend. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Analyzing the Elites Emigration and the Impacts of Preventive Policies by Using System Dynamics
seyedhamed mosavi hosein ghodsian

The issue of elite emigration from our country to the developed countries as a social phenomenon is the result of economic, cultural, social and political factors in Iranian society. This phenomenon had harmful impacts on the economic, political and social growth and de More

The issue of elite emigration from our country to the developed countries as a social phenomenon is the result of economic, cultural, social and political factors in Iranian society. This phenomenon had harmful impacts on the economic, political and social growth and development processes. Elite emigration has been neglected over the years. Statistics reports show that by each emigration of an elite person from Iran, $ 5 million of the Iran's capital will be lost. Therefore, it is essential to find the motivations of elite emigration and explore the strategies and practical solutions for the elite emigration. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze a variety of scenarios and their impacts on the rate of emigration. Due to the complexity of the problem and causal relations, feedbacks and causal loops, system dynamics approach was used in this study. The model performed in Vensim software. Results show that the policy of reducing tension in foreign relations has not a significant impact on the rate of elite emigration. In addition, according to the results of proposed policies, it is recommended to the government and policy makers to respect the meritocracy in the scientific, management job appointments as well as improve the job security and employment status of elites. Manuscript profile

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