The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have b More
The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have been used to investigate the effect of statements on Brent and WTI crude oil price fluctuations during the period 1987-2019 based on the event analysis approach. The findings show that OPEC statements have a significant effect on the turmoil in the oil market, and the type of statements varies on crude oil market fluctuations, and this effect has diminished over time. Based on the results, members' solidarity in the field of planning and coordinated implementation of decisions for maximum impact on the crude oil market is proposed.
Manuscript profile
Abstract
In classical finance, investors sentiment play no role in expected returns and stock prices, but behavioral finance believes that investors decisions are influenced by their sentiment.In oil-producing countries, including Iran, the news of OPEC oil pri More
Abstract
In classical finance, investors sentiment play no role in expected returns and stock prices, but behavioral finance believes that investors decisions are influenced by their sentiment.In oil-producing countries, including Iran, the news of OPEC oil price fluctuations affects investors sentiments . we used the monthly data for the period of research 2008 to 2021.The research method of this article is an application uses the nonlinear and time varying parameter models.The results show that OPEC oil price fluctuations on investors' investment follow nonlinear process .Change in a standard deviation in OPEC oil price fluctuations over time has a U-shaped effect on investor sentiment (moving on a horizontal axis).Changes in standard deviation in OPEC oil price fluctuations in each period (moving on the transverse axis), at the beginning of the second period have a strong negative effect and in the middle and end of period have a small negative effect on investors sentiments.
Manuscript profile
Abstract
The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the respo More
Abstract
The present study uses the PVAR model to investigate the impact of asymmetric oil price shock, tax revenues, resource curse, stock market and business cycles in oil exporting economies during the period 2000-2019. According to the estimation results; the response of the output gap to the shock of oil prices and exchange rates is a downward trend for up to 3 periods, after which it rises and in the long run this shock is gradually adjusted, but the problem that exists and the response of the output gap to liquidity also show this. is. Revenues from oil sales and foreign exchange earnings are not well managed in oil-rich countries, and the amount of liquidity injected into the market is spent on imports, which are generally done to combat inflation. In this case, many production sectors will be seriously damaged and will be taken out of the production cycle, and therefore part of the investments made in the economy will be unused and the amount of production will decrease, and on the other hand, when foreign exchange earnings decrease, the amount of imports. It has been reduced that part of the decrease in imports will be directed to capital goods and production machinery, leading to a decrease in investment and an increase in the production gap. Sectors that were taken out of production as a result of massive imports of consumer goods during the period of increasing oil revenues will not be revived in this period, which requires more attention of the country's officials to macroeconomic indicators.
Manuscript profile
According to the findings of financial econometric researches, oil prices as one of the most important macroeconomic variables affect financial markets and economies of oil exporting countries. In this study, the price of OPEC oil basket has been used with daily frequen More
According to the findings of financial econometric researches, oil prices as one of the most important macroeconomic variables affect financial markets and economies of oil exporting countries. In this study, the price of OPEC oil basket has been used with daily frequency. The period under review is from August 3, 2013 to December 26, 2016. The course includes various developments such as unrest and war in the Middle East, a sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices for reasons such as a decline in demand, an agreement 27, and the agreement of OPEC members to reduce oil production in order to increase oil prices, is located.
Initial studies indicate cluster fluctuations, ie, independent and uniform distribution characteristics and variance consistency. The Breusch Godfrey test confirms the effects of ARCH and GARCH. Also, a generalized test with the estimation of kernel density based on the Monte Carlo rule indicates Parson’s weight on the effects of ARCH in the variable.
The results of the study of oil price fluctuations using the MS-GARCH model of single and multiple regimes indicate that the three regimes model is suitable for explaining the behavior of the variable in the reviewed period.
Manuscript profile
Sanad
Sanad is a platform for managing Azad University publications
