List of Articles تحلیل احتمالاتی خطر

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  1 - Seismic Hazard Analysis of Andimeshk Territory and Determination of its Seismic Vulnerability
  Mehdi Mahdavi Adeli shahrokh tafi
  As a key point in main roads and railways of country, Andimeshk city has always have strategic situation in Khuzestan province and even Iran. On the other hand, most evidences indicate that this city is located in seismic area and the incidence of a massive earthquake c More

  As a key point in main roads and railways of country, Andimeshk city has always have strategic situation in Khuzestan province and even Iran. On the other hand, most evidences indicate that this city is located in seismic area and the incidence of a massive earthquake could impose huge losses on Iran economy. Considering this background, the aim of this study is to perform seismic hazard analysis in Andimeshk territory and precisely evaluate the vulnerability of the buildings and structures in this city. To this end, the extreme risk curve was obtained using probability analysis, then the buildings were investigated in four types in order to identify the vulnerability curves in three levels. By the combination of risk curve and vulnerability curves the rate of vulnerability of Andimeshk buildings can be evaluated quantitatively. The results of this study show that the seismic hazard level in Andimeshk city is relatively high and the base acceleration is equal to 0/325g and even more than the proposed rate in the standard 2800. Although there is no considerable concern regarding concrete buildings, the collapse of ancient and traditional buildings which are calculated 80 to 155 years is very challenging. In conclusion, the results indicate that a 20-year period might be suggested as a short chance to preserve the city. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment and Creation of Damage Probability Model for Yasouj City in OpenQuake Software
  Ali Sadeghi عبدالرضا سروقدمقدم فرشید فتحی
  The populous country of Iran is geographically located in a region with very high seismicity, and there is a need for detailed analyzes of seismic risk and risk in it, especially for strategic demographic and industrial points in order to provide vital information for d More

  The populous country of Iran is geographically located in a region with very high seismicity, and there is a need for detailed analyzes of seismic risk and risk in it, especially for strategic demographic and industrial points in order to provide vital information for decision making. It is inevitable for recipients to develop effective risk reduction measures. This article, by using accurate and up-to-date methods, recent information of the population and housing census, socio-economic data, for the first time, analyzes the seismic risk by considering various uncertainties for buildings with was done various structural systems in the city of Yasouj. Descriptive and quantitative information of buildings and active faults in the field of this city is implemented in GIS software and using the capabilities of OpenQuake software, risk probabilistic analysis and risk curves and design spectrum for the building of the field are performed. Research has been produced. Based on this, probabilistic risk analysis has been done by considering various uncertainties in OpenQuake software and seismic risk curves have been produced for four different levels of vulnerability. The quantitative analysis of building vulnerability in Yasouj City reveals that unreinforced masonry buildings exhibit the highest damage percentages across all severity levels, with 48.4%, 43.1%, 39.4%, and 33.5% for slight, moderate, extensive, and collapse damage, respectively. Low-quality steel buildings suffer the most damage after unreinforced masonry structures, emphasizing the urgent need for retrofitting. In contrast, moderate-quality steel and reinforced concrete buildings demonstrate favorable seismic damage assessments. The qualitative findings stress the importance of implementing a robust monitoring/control system for construction quality, anticipating a significant improvement in structural reliability during the exploitation period with average to high execution quality. The results show that in order to prevent high economic, social and human damages, it is very important to review the design of new resistant structures and retrofit existing buildings in the research area. Manuscript profile