Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment and Creation of Damage Probability Model for Yasouj City in OpenQuake Software
Subject Areas : Analysis of Structure and Earthquake
Ali Sadeghi
1
,
عبدالرضا سروقدمقدم
2
,
فرشید فتحی
3
1 - Department of Civil Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2 -
3 -
Keywords: Probabilistic risk analysis, Probabilistic seismic risk analysis, Vulnerability analysis, Earthquake damage.,
Abstract :
The populous country of Iran is geographically located in a region with very high seismicity, and there is a need for detailed analyzes of seismic risk and risk in it, especially for strategic demographic and industrial points in order to provide vital information for decision making. It is inevitable for recipients to develop effective risk reduction measures. This article, by using accurate and up-to-date methods, recent information of the population and housing census, socio-economic data, for the first time, analyzes the seismic risk by considering various uncertainties for buildings with was done various structural systems in the city of Yasouj. Descriptive and quantitative information of buildings and active faults in the field of this city is implemented in GIS software and using the capabilities of OpenQuake software, risk probabilistic analysis and risk curves and design spectrum for the building of the field are performed. Research has been produced. Based on this, probabilistic risk analysis has been done by considering various uncertainties in OpenQuake software and seismic risk curves have been produced for four different levels of vulnerability. The quantitative analysis of building vulnerability in Yasouj City reveals that unreinforced masonry buildings exhibit the highest damage percentages across all severity levels, with 48.4%, 43.1%, 39.4%, and 33.5% for slight, moderate, extensive, and collapse damage, respectively. Low-quality steel buildings suffer the most damage after unreinforced masonry structures, emphasizing the urgent need for retrofitting. In contrast, moderate-quality steel and reinforced concrete buildings demonstrate favorable seismic damage assessments. The qualitative findings stress the importance of implementing a robust monitoring/control system for construction quality, anticipating a significant improvement in structural reliability during the exploitation period with average to high execution quality. The results show that in order to prevent high economic, social and human damages, it is very important to review the design of new resistant structures and retrofit existing buildings in the research area.
[1] Mostafaei H, Kabeyasawa T. Investigation and analysis of damage to buildings during the 2003 Bam earthquake. Bull Earthq Res Institute, Univ Tokyo 2004;79:107–32.
[2] Khatam A. The destruction of Bam and its reconstruction following the earthquake of December 2003. Cities 2006;23:462–4.
[3] Abolghasemi H, Radfar MH, Khatami M, Nia MS, Amid A, Briggs SM. International medical response to a natural disaster: Lessons learned from the bam earthquake experience. Prehosp Disaster Med 2006;21:141–7.
[4] Khodaverdian A, Zafarani H, Rahimian M, Dehnamaki V. Seismicity parameters and spatially smoothed seismicity model for iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 2016;106:1133–50.
[5] Tavakoli B, Ghafory-Ashtiany M. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran. Ann Di Geofis 1999;42:1013–21.
[6] Golara A. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of interconnected infrastructure: A case of Iranian high-pressure gas supply system. Nat Hazards 2014;73:567–77.
[7] Ghafory-Ashtiany M, Jafari MK, Shadi Talab J, Eshghi S, Qurashi M. Tehran vulnerability analysis. Tenth world Conf. Earthq. Eng. Balkema, Rotterdam, 1992.
[8] Ghodrati Amiri G, Motamed R, Rabet Es-Haghi H. Seismic hazard assessment of metropolitan Tehran, Iran. J Earthq Eng 2003;7:347–72.
[9] Zafarani H, Noorzad A, Ansari A, Bargi K. Stochastic modeling of Iranian earthquakes and estimation of ground motion for future earthquakes in Greater Tehran. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 2009;29:722–41.
[10] Hamzehloo H, Alikhanzadeh A, Rahmani M, Ansari A. Seismic hazard maps of Iran. Proc. 15th world Conf. Earthq. Eng. Lisbon, Port., 2012, p. 24–8.
Inst. Mech. Eng. Part O J. Risk Reliab., vol. 229, SAGE Publications Ltd; 2015, p. 627–40.
[21] Pakdel-Lahiji N, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Ghafory-Ashtiany M, Sadeghi M. Consequences of financial vulnerability and insurance loading for the affordability of earthquake insurance systems: Evidence from Iran. Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract 2015;40:295–315.
[22] Fallah Tafti M, Amini Hosseini K, Mansouri B. Generation of new fragility curves for common types of buildings in Iran. Bull Earthq Eng 2020;18:3079–99.
[23] International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran,1994. http://www.iiees.ac.ir/fa/.
[24] Eftekhari SN, Sayyadpour H, Kowsari M. A near-fault probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Yasouj, located in the Kazerun fault system, southwest Iran. Nat Hazards 2021;105:1945–61.
[25] Kale Ö, Akkar S, Ansari A, Hamzehloo H. A ground-motion predictive model for iran and turkey for horizontal PGA, PGV, and 5% damped response spectrum: Investigation of possible regional effects. Bull Seismol Soc Am 2015;105:963–80.
[26] Akkar S, Bommer JJ. Empirical equations for
