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Open Access Article
1 - Comparison of Models in Predicting Cumulative Cases of Hospitalization and Death of Covid-19 (Case Study: Bahabad city
mohammad hossein karimizarchi Davood ShisheboriIntroduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 is a respiratory disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2. Forecasting the number of new cases and deaths during todays can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities needed in the future. This study MoreIntroduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 is a respiratory disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2. Forecasting the number of new cases and deaths during todays can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities needed in the future. This study aims to modeling, comparing the performance of models, and predict new cases and deaths efficiently in the future. Methods: In this article nine popular forecasting techniques are tested on the data of Covid-19 in Bahabad city as a case study. Using the evaluation criteria of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) of the models are compared. Results: The results of the analysis showed that the best model according to the evaluation criteria for forecasting cumulative cases of hospitalization of Covid-19 is the cubic spline smoothing model, and cumulative cases of death, KNN regression model. Also, autoregressive neural network and theta models for hospitalization cases, and for death cases, autoregressive neural network model has the worst performance among other models. Conclusion: This study can provide a proper understanding of the spread of covid-19 disease in this region so that by taking precautionary measures and formulating appropriate policies, this epidemic can be effectively overcome. Also, unlike other studies, this study uses 9 different techniques and their comparison, which in turn increases the confidence factor in decision making. Also, an important point is that the data should be updated in real time. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Assessment of Healthy City Components in the Face of Pandemic Diseases Case Study: A Comparative Analysis of the Five Areas of Urmia City
Meysam Saket Hasanlouei Shahin Agabgloo Atefe Ghanbari Ali RezaeiExtended AbstractIntroduction The emergence and spread of pandemic diseases on a global scale and in the field of health and hygiene has challenged order, balance, adaptability, coordination, flexibility and resilience in various managerial, economic, social, cultural a MoreExtended AbstractIntroduction The emergence and spread of pandemic diseases on a global scale and in the field of health and hygiene has challenged order, balance, adaptability, coordination, flexibility and resilience in various managerial, economic, social, cultural and behavioral dimensions. And it has plunged the cities and countries of the world into crisis. In the current research, five areas of Urmia city have been selected as a study case. The present research tries to compare the status of the components of a healthy city in the face of pandemic diseases by explaining the principles, concepts and perspectives of a healthy city and evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of urban spaces and the facilities and facilities available in it (with emphasis on Covid-19) in each of the five areas of Urmia city. Therefore, it seeks to answer the following questions.- Which of the proposed components of the healthy city concept is more important and prioritized in terms of quality?- Which of the study areas of the current research is in a favorable situation in terms of the realization of the components of a healthy city and the level of sustainability and desirability in dealing with pandemic diseases?MethodologyThe statistical population and sample size of the research is based on two groups of experts and urban managers and citizens living in the city, which collected the required data by using the questionnaire tool. The resulting data have been implemented for analysis in the quantitative methods and tests of Swara and Cocoso, in order to determine the importance and priority of each of the proposed components and the ranking of research study options.Results and Discussion The findings indicate that the performance components of the institutions and subordinate bodies in the field of health and health and the degree of desirability of job security of the residents have gained the highest and lowest levels of importance and value, respectively. Also, five regions and two cities of Urmia are located in the most favorable and unfavorable environmental conditions, respectively, in relation to the quality levels of the components of the concept of a healthy city.ConclusionIn this section, based on the findings, some targeted and effective proposals and policies are presented.- Emphasis on holding sports and mass gatherings in green and open public spaces- Improving the quality levels of domestic sewage and surface water disposal- Emphasis on planning based on pedestrians- Emphasis on establishing equality and creating justice and balance between settlements- Emphasizing and paying attention to strengthening cooperation and coordination between organizations- Improving the efficiency of the waste collection system- Adopting policies and measures in order to improve the social security situation in the unusual neighborhoods of Region Two by creating coherent changes and developments in different social and physical dimensions.- Emphasis on improving the quality of drinking water- Planning, creating and developing recreational and sports functions- Improving the efficiency of the public transportation system- and - and emphasizing on the safety and legal construction of buildings in order to increase the level of safety against various natural and man-made disasters, as well as improving the environmental condition of the city and urban landscape (visual quality of the city) Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Floristic study of Einolkosh area in Kermanshah
مهتاب Shahraki منیژه Pakravan یونس AsriEinolkosh region covers an area of 2000 hectares situated in the southwest of Kermanshah. Minimum and maximum altitudes of study area are 1550 and 1850 m, respectively. Mean annual precipitation of the area is 430.7mm and mean annual temperature is 15.1˚C. The aim of th MoreEinolkosh region covers an area of 2000 hectares situated in the southwest of Kermanshah. Minimum and maximum altitudes of study area are 1550 and 1850 m, respectively. Mean annual precipitation of the area is 430.7mm and mean annual temperature is 15.1˚C. The aim of this research was to identify the plant species, introducing the flora, determination of life forms and geographical distribution of species in the area. For this purpose, plant samples were collected from different habitats of the area during growing seasons in 1385. The biological spectrum of the area was plotted by means of life forms results. The position of the area within Iran’s phytogeography classification was studied based on geographical distribution data. In this study, 156 species are collected and identified. These species belong to 27 families and 118 genera. The following families had the highest number of species: Asteraceae (32 species), Fabaceae (27 species) and Poaceae (14species). Therophytes with 91 species (58.3%) are the most frequent life form. Investigation on geographical distribution of species showed 86 species (55.1 %) belong to Irano–Turanian region. Of these, 12 species are endemics of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Comparative study of the essential oils in leaf and stem of Zhumeria majdae at vegetative stage
A.A. MajrouhiThe monotypic Iranian Zhumeria majdae (Lamiaceae), known locally by the name of Mohrekhosh, was recently described as the first member of a new genus (Zhumeria). It has a limited geographical rang in southern Iran at Hormozgan province. The leaves have been used for man MoreThe monotypic Iranian Zhumeria majdae (Lamiaceae), known locally by the name of Mohrekhosh, was recently described as the first member of a new genus (Zhumeria). It has a limited geographical rang in southern Iran at Hormozgan province. The leaves have been used for many years as a curative for stomachaches and an antiseptic. In this research, the constituents of essential oils of Zhumeria majdae leaves and stem in Geno mountain of Hormozgan province were analyzed via GC and GC/MS and compared together. The oil yield of the dried leaves and stem by hydrodistillation were 7.5 and 0.3 %, respectively (v/w). 22 and 19 compounds were identified. The major constituents were Linalool and Camphor, which they belong to first group. Wheras, compounds, like alpha-Pinene, Camphene, Limonene, Alpha-terpineol, Caryophyllene oxide and Myrcene belong to second group. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - The Role of Government under Pandemic Disease Conditions
Ali Keshavarzi Hamid Reza Horry seied abdolmajid jalaee sfand abadi Meysam Rafei mahdi nejatiThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After ca MoreThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2016, in the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the government has no involvement in the economy; In other words, the government pursues a state of fiscal passivity and shows no fiscal reaction to the change in endogenous variables after the outbreak of pandemic disease. Subsequently, in other scenarios, the government reacts fiscally to the outbreak of the pandemic, given the different conditions of production and public liability. The results of the study of fiscally active scenarios compared to the state of fiscal passivity indicate that the effect of government expenditures shock as a standard deviation on macroeconomic variables under pandemic disease conditions, has led to much less feedback. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Analysis of primary school students' academic failure with emphasis on the happy learning virtual program in the Corona pandemic
toktom jafar tabatabaee ELAHE sarfaraziThe purpose of this study is to investigate the causes of students' academic failure by emphasizing the virtual education of the happy program in the corona pandemic with a qualitative research method of thematic analysis. The statistical population of the study include MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the causes of students' academic failure by emphasizing the virtual education of the happy program in the corona pandemic with a qualitative research method of thematic analysis. The statistical population of the study included the parents of primary school students in South Khorasan province who were selected by purposive sampling method and finally the data were saturated with 36 participants. Data collection tools in this study were semi-structured exploratory interviews due to the novelty of the subject and the lack of sufficient theory on the subject of the research. After collecting the data, they were analyzed by Strauss-Corbin method. Among the extracted concepts, 55 open source codes were classified into 11 code-based and 3 selective codes (contextual causes, educational causes and educational causes). In order to check the validity of the codings, the specialized agreement of the experts on the process and structure of the codings and to evaluate its reliability using the process evaluation form and the final coding structure, the method of agreement between the evaluators was used. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The Habitat Suitability Modeling of Mountain Racerunner (Eremias montanus) in Western Zagros, Iran
علیرضا محمدی نصرالله رستگارپویانی محمود کرمی عمار رهبرMountain racerunner (Eremias montanus) of Lacertidea family is a native species (Endemic) Zagros Mountains, which so far only in a limited area of Hamadan and Kermanshah provinces is reported. This species low population and low distribution terms of the conservation ar MoreMountain racerunner (Eremias montanus) of Lacertidea family is a native species (Endemic) Zagros Mountains, which so far only in a limited area of Hamadan and Kermanshah provinces is reported. This species low population and low distribution terms of the conservation area is an important. In this study , that from during spring , summer and fall while starting activity species after hibernation done, taba was to investigate variables related to species habitat suitable habitat are identified and modeled . In sampling stager at observation point in path of the line transect habitat parameters and presence and absence of species were recorded. Based on 75 plot in the presence and absence of plote was harvested. Binary Logistic Regression was performed to develop the distribution model of the Mountain racerunner according to habitat variabla. Finally, the significant parameters in this model were amount of vegetation, amount of Rocky and stony, aspect, slop and heigh. Based on the result, suitable habitat for Eremias montanus was considered as all the high mountain area and steep habitat with dense shrub cover. Manuscript profile
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