Application of time-series modeling to predict subsurface drainage discharge and water table depth
Subject Areas : Farm water management with the aim of improving irrigation management indicators
Shafie Vazirpour
1
(MSc., Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran)
Farhad Mirzaei Asl Shirkohi
2
(Associate professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran)
Hamed Ebrahimian
3
(Assistant professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, P. O. Box 4111, Karaj 31587-77871, Iran)
Hamed Rafiee
4
(Assistant professor, Department of Economic Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran)
Keywords: Calibration, drainage discharge, drainage system, Drainmod model, water table depth,
Abstract :
Stochastic characteristics of the drainage phenomena led to the application of random variables and time series modeling in predicting the performance of these phenomena. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of time-series models in predicting the performance of a subsurface drainage system. Behshahr Ran subsurface drainage system, which its drains are activated via rainfall, was considered as the study area. In this study, Drainmod model was calibrated for the study area. Then, variables of drainage discharge and water table depth were simulated via the calibrated Drainmod model. This information was used to evaluate the performance of various time-series models. The results showed that the ARMAX model with exogenous variables including daily value, precipitation during the previous days and average desired variables in the last two days was efficient in estimating water table depth and drainage discharge. Mean absolute error for predicting both variables was about 8%. Comparison between the selected times series models and the calibrated Drainmod model results indicated the application of time-series models in predicting the performance of the subsurface drainage system was satisfactory. The coefficients of determination were 0.51 and 0.74 for drainage discharge and water table depth, respectively. The root mean squared error for these variables were 0.01 cm/day and 8.6 cm, respectively.
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