The Shift in the Balance of Nuclear Deterrence Following Operation Waʿd Ṣādiq (1&2)

Subject Areas : Iranian Political Research

Mohsen Rostaei ^{1 *} , Ali Karami ² , Ali Reza Amini ³

1 - Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Aindegan Institute of Higher Education, Tonekabon, Iran

Received: 2025-02-02 Accepted : 2025-05-16 Published : 2025-06-04

Keywords: Nuclear deterrence, Iran, Israel, war, Middle East,

Abstract :

Operation Waʿd Ṣādiq (1 & 2), conducted by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the Zionist regime, occurred for the first time in the past 50 years. This attack holds historical significance and is unprecedented since World War II. The importance of this operation and assault becomes evident when evaluated through the lens of the theory of nuclear deterrence, according to which a nuclear-armed state is considered immune from direct attacks. By launching a direct strike against the Zionist regime, Iran has challenged the credibility of this regime’s nuclear deterrence. While over the past year, the deterrent credibility of the regime has already been tested by resistance groups—such as Operation Ṭūfān al-Aqṣā, the missile and drone attacks by Ḥizb Allāh, as well as drone offensives by Anṣār Allāh of Yemen and the Iraqi resistance—Operation Waʿd Ṣādiq is distinguished by the fact that it was executed by a regional power possessing an independent nation-state structure. As such, it has subjected the theory of deterrence to a serious challenge. This study, using a descriptive-analytical methodology, concludes that due to the Islamic Republic’s entry into direct conflict with the Zionist regime, Iran must now reinforce its own deterrence capabilities and pay special attention to its internal challenges. Thus, in the new paradigm of warfare, the ultimate victor is the actor who succeeds in hybrid warfare and manages to rally public opinion and strengthen popular support. Therefore, alongside the enhancement of military power, missile range, and even a possible revision of nuclear policy, the Islamic Republic must increase its power in areas such as the economy, scientific advancement, domestic production, media, diplomacy, and more broadly, its resilience. Accordingly, the future of power belongs to the actor that can establish integrated and hybrid deterrence.

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