Estimation of the probability of occurrence of heat waves with different periods of continuation in Ardabil province
Subject Areas : Climatology
batool zeynali
1
,
fatemeh rouhi
2
1 - Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran
2 - natural geography.Faculty of Literature and Humanities.Mohaghegh Ardabili University.ardabil.Iran.
Keywords: Return Period, Heat waves, Aedebil province, Marakf chain, Azore dynamic high pressure,
Abstract :
Heatwaves are one of the natural and intrinsic phenomena of the climate in different parts of the world whose frequency of occurrence as a result of global fluctuations in climate over recent years is similar to other climatic phenomena. Rising air temperatures due to periodic droughts or because of heating The world is very likely in the coming years .To evaluate the temperature in Ardebil province data on the maximum daily temperature of the stations of Ardebil Parsabad Khalkhal and Meshkinshahr for the years 1991 to 2016 were obtained from Ardebil's meteorological conditions. In this study in order to study the heating periods in different months of Ardebil province also to illustrate the changes The period of continuity and the return period of heat waves have been identified and the Markov chain has been usedAccordingly in no fish the waves are the most frequent and the short and long wave were the highest in April and the lowest in September.Using these tables of the period of continuity and the calculated return period of the heat wave during the warm year the level of stations in the province of Ardabil we find that in April May and June Parsabad station has the least heat recovery period and the months of July August And in September Ardebil station has the shortest period of return. The most frequent return periods were observed in April May June July and August at Meshkinshahr Station and observed in Khalkhal Station in September.Also, the existence of Azores dynamic high pressure in Iran has caused a strong heat rule in our study area.
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