Possible scenarios about Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war

Subject Areas :

MOHAMMADHAMED KIANI ¹ , Mohammad Reza Aghareb Parast ² , Bashir Esmaeili Gonharani ³

1 - Ph.D. Candidate of International relations, Islamic Azad University of Shahreza, Shahreza, Iran.
2 - Faculty member of Political science, Islamic Azad University of Shahreza, Shahreza, Iran.
3 - Faculty member of Political science, Islamic Azad University of Shahreza, Shahreza, Iran.

Received: 2023-10-16 Accepted : 2024-01-03 Published : 2023-08-23

Keywords: Russia, NATO, scenario planning, Future Studies, International system, Nuclear Weapons, Russia-Ukraine war,

Abstract :

Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, which began in February 2022 has global dimensions and various effects on the politics, economy and security of the international system. In the meantime, the evaluation of possible scenarios has a special place from the perspective of future studies.The main question of this article:What scenarios can be imagined if Russia uses nuclear weapons? The hypothesis that is raised following the mentioned question is that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia will have major geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic effects for global security in the short and long term. The present article tries to present some possible scenarios in relation to the future of this war and its effects on the international system in the framework of scenario planning and using the descriptive-analytical method with emphasizing on component of nuclear weapons.For this purpose, offensive realism has been chosen as theoretical framework to better explain the behavior of the Russian government in Ukrainian war.The findings of the research show that Russia's use of nuclear weapons can, on the one hand, lead to a mutual reaction by the United States and NATO, and on the other hand, instead of helping to disarm nuclear weapons, lead to its spread

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